Pirates Notes: Keller, Pitching Pursuits, Lineup

Pirates righty Mitch Keller saw his season end on Aug. 2 with a teres major strain that wound up being more severe than was originally known. Keller hit the 60-day IL in early August, but it didn’t come out until after the season that he’d suffered a Grade 3 strain, which entailed the teres major muscle completely detaching from the bone. He remarkably did not require surgery. General manager Ben Cherington said at this week’s GM Meetings that the Bucs have been conducting in-person visits with members of the roster to discuss offseason plans (link via Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Keller’s visit revealed the right-hander to be “basically recovered” after more than three months of downtime, per Cherington. He’s resumed throwing from flat ground and is looking at a mostly normal offseason. Keller said last month that there wasn’t one specific point where he felt the injury take place. He was likely pitching through the injury for some time before it became fully untenable. Keller started the season well, with a 3.64 ERA through his first 11 trips to the mound. Over his next 11 starts, Keller was decimated for a 7.36 ERA. He showed diminished bat-missing ability, worse command, a greater susceptibility to home runs and, eventually, reduced velocity. Keller sat 93.5 mph on his heater for much of the season but dipped to 92.8 mph over his final five starts — including a season-worst 91.9 mph average in his final trip to the mound. The Pirates still owe Keller a total of $38MM over the next two seasons. From 2022-25, he averaged 31 starts per season with a 4.15 ERA and quality rate stats. If he can get back to that form, he’ll be a valuable innings eater in a young, entirely right-handed rotation that also includes Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler — with Carmen Mlodzinski in tow as a sixth starter and bullpen option. The heavily right-handed slant of the Pittsburgh staff extends beyond the rotation. With reliever Gregory Soto returning to free agency after a solid one-year deal in Pittsburgh, the only southpaw who’s locked into a spot on the Pirates’ roster is closer Mason Montgomery. Depth relievers Brandon Eisert and Evan Sisk could factor in, and former top prospect Hunter Barco could be either rotation depth or a bullpen option. Still, left-handed pitching on the roster is thin, which isn’t ideal for a team that plays its home games in a park with extraordinarily pitcher-friendly dimensions out to left field. PNC Park naturally helps out lefties, which helps to explain why the Pirates in recent years have brokered free agent deals for Tyler Anderson, Martín Pérez, Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney. Cherington suggested the Pirates could look to bring in additional southpaw talent. “We see the advantage of having left-handed pitching at PNC Park,” Cherington said in an appearance on 93.7 The Fan (Audacy link). “We see how many left-handed hitters are in the game today. We want to put ourselves in a position to combat that as well as we possibly can.” The Pittsburgh rotation is obviously full at the moment, but teams will surely be inquiring on their young arms. It’d be a stunner to see Skenes or Ashcraft, in particular, shipped out of town, but Mlodzinski has previously voiced a desire to work as a starter and doesn’t have a clear path to that role when everyone’s healthy. Bringing in a lefty who can work multiple innings in a swing role would make good sense. Options on the free agent market include Sean Newcomb, Jordan Montgomery, Eric Lauer and Ryan Yarbrough. If injuries and/or trades open up space in the Pittsburgh rotation, veteran lefties who could be had on short-term deals include Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, Kris Bubic and Jeffrey Springs. With regard to the lineup, the Pirates are able to have a more open-minded approach. Cherington spoke in that appearance on The Fan of having a deeper roster and better foundation than he has in years past. The current aim is deepen and upgrade the roster “in totality,” as opposed to past offseasons where the Pirates have had more glaring, specific needs to address. Cherington called out the possibility of adding in the outfield, the infield or behind the plate — a wide net they can cast by virtue of having some positional versatility. The Bucs have Oneil Cruz locked into center fields and Bryan Reynolds in right field. Young slugger Esmerlyn Valdez gives them some hope in right field, but fleet-footed fourth outfielder Jake Mangum’s presence provides something of a safety net if Valdez’s strikeout troubles force a return to Triple-A for more seasoning. Ryan O’Hearn can also see time in right field, but he’ll also mix in at designated hitter and at first base, where he’ll share time with Spencer Horwitz. Beyond Horwitz and O’Hearn combining for first base reps, the Pirates have budding star Konnor Griffin at shortstop and a high-contact hitter, Nick Gonzales, able to take reps at either third base or second base. The Pirates have been in contact with Brandon Lowe since making their slugging second baseman a $23.15MM qualifying offer, per Cherington, and a reunion hasn’t been ruled out. Lowe is all but certain to reject his QO. Even if he signs elsewhere, Pittsburgh has Gonzales and depth infielders Jacob Gonzalez, Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke and Tyler Callihan on the 40-man roster. Third baseman Murf Gray, the Pirates’ second-round pick in 2025, is a top-100 prospect who crushed three levels of minor league pitching and should be MLB-ready at some point in 2027. Catcher, which has been a weak spot for years, now looks more encouraging. Henry Davis has emerged as a premium defensive backup, while Endy Rodriguez and Rafael Flores Jr. both hit well in limited work. Rodriguez’s season ended in August when he required surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He could be sidelined into next year, but Flores and his .264/.331/.527 slash in 164 plate appearances give the club reason for optimism as well. The improved depth creates a broad slate of options for Cherington & Co. to consider but also speaks to the heightened expectations in Pittsburgh. The Pirates were in contention for much of this season, before half their lineup fell to injury at the same time and tanked their postseason chances in the final third of the season. The young rotation is healthy and excellent. The lineup has more established bats than at any point in recent memory. Cherington, meanwhile, will be entering the final season of his contract in 2027. He has every motivation to bring in win-now talent and take more risks than we’ve seen in offseasons past — provided owner Bob Nutting gives him the ability to do so. As MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker shows, the Bucs project for about a $101MM payroll next season. That’s a low mark for the rest of the league but only about $4MM shy of last year’s club-record $104.5MM Opening Day payroll.