PFT's Week 10 2026 NFL picks

I have no explanation for the last two weeks. But I’ll use an unexpected run of success to provide a warning to anyone else who wakes up one day in the midst of a hot streak.In Week 8, I went 13-1 in the straight-up-only picks exercise. (No more picks against the spread, for reasons I’ve previously explained.) For Week 9, I ended up 14-1.That’s 27-2 over two weeks. (Which translates to 87-48-1 for the year, which doesn’t sound nearly as good as “27-2.”)Now for the warning, specifically to anyone who has gambled or who will be gambling on sports. The worst thing you can do is get lucky. Because you’ll think that you’ve suddenly become good. Then, you’ll let it ride until your luck runs out. That’s when it gets dangerous. Because you’ll fool yourself into thinking that it’s just a temporary setback, that your secret formula for picking winners remains viable, and you’ll chase your losses. You’ll keep digging that hole, confident that it’s just a matter of time before your sudden genius returns. Eventually, you’ll find yourself in an untenable financial situation.That’s how it happens for plenty of gamblers. They don’t start out losing and keep losing. They win enough to make themselves think they know more than they do, when the reality is that no one knows anything. And then the wheels come off. And then they get desperate to put the wheels back on.Case in point: Last week, someone who has been part of the NFL universe for more than 30 years expressed amazement that the Cowboys were favored by only 4.5 points against the Colts. With the Colts in disarray due to multiple trades and poised to make even more trades, the Cowboys would win easily. It was, the person said, a “sure thing.”Final score? Cowboys 27, Colts 23.There is no sure thing in gambling. Well, there’s one. If you ever let yourself believe you’re smarter than the house and you don’t snap out of it in time, it’s a sure thing that you’ll be filing for bankruptcy, eventually.Commanders at Giants (Thursday night)Can Dan Quinn and company come up with another way to screw things up in a key moment?Giants 23, Commanders 17.Patriots vs. Lions (Germany)It’s desperation time for New England, like it was when they found a way to beat the Bills.Patriots 23, Lions 20.Chiefs at FalconsThe Falcons are capable of winning every game. It’s just impossible to know when that version of the team is going to make an appearance.Chiefs 27, Falcons 17.Texans at BrownsTime is running out on Houston. And the Browns seem to be in the early stages of a backslide.Texans 20, Browns 16.Vikings at PackersOne of the craziest weeks in Vikings history ends on a high note, thanks to the Packers not being able to run the ball effectively.Vikings 24, Packers 20.Dolphins at ColtsWith the uncertainty of the trade deadline over, the Colts can get back to focusing on trying to win football games.Colts 17, Dolphins 7.Panthers at SaintsIf the Saints can put a full 60 minutes together, they could be very dangerous.Saints 27, Panthers 20.Bills at JetsThe Bills have a rough six-game stretch coming; they know not to fall victim to a trap game.Bills 30, Jets 17.Jaguars at TitansLiam Coen and Robert Saleh meet again. One has an elite roster. One does not.Jaguars 24, Titans 13.Rams at CardinalsThe Cardinals still can’t figure out how to win a game at home.Rams 17, Cardinals 13.Seahawks at RaidersIt’ll take a little time to get Fernando Mendoza fully up to speed.Seahawks 16, Raiders 9.49ers at CowboysIf it wasn’t already clear that the Cowboys are a long way from being elite, it will be.49ers, 31, Cowboys 20.Steelers at BengalsJoe Burrow’s MVP case gets even stronger with a prime-time win.Bengals 27, Steelers 23.Chargers at RavensJacoby Brissett’s job is simple. Win a few winnable games so that the team will still be relevant when Lamar Jackson returns.Ravens 14, Chargers 6.