Patriot Shortages Let 3 Out of 4 Russian Ballistic Missiles Slip Through in July

Russia has launched a record 377 missiles at Ukraine in July – with Ukraine downing only around half of that number, according to Kyiv Post’s estimates. The total doubles the previous record of 181 missiles set in June.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Kyiv Post compiled the data from the Ukrainian Air Force as of afternoon on July 31 and asserted that Russia has used more cruise missiles than ballistic missiles in its air raids in July, contradicting the air force’s earlier claim that ballistic missiles are “becoming more [common] in percentage terms.” Most Russian missiles launched after July 20 were cruise missiles, with the only exception on July 26, when Russia fired seven ballistic missiles and one cruise missile. Ukraine also had a higher success rate at intercepting cruise missiles in July – out of the 251 launched as of July 31, Ukraine managed to down or suppress 174, or about 69%. But out of the 126 ballistic missiles launched, only 36 were intercepted – roughly 29%, meaning for every four launched, around three managed to evade Ukrainian defenses. Ballistic missiles travel at far higher speeds than cruise missiles, following a steep ballistic trajectory that makes them harder to intercept. Cruise missiles, by contrast, fly more like aircraft, relying on low-altitude flight and maneuverability. Among the few systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles is the US-made Patriot air defense system, but Ukraine has faced persistent shortages of both the batteries and their interceptor missiles. Other Topics of Interest Drapaty Orders Halt to Assault Regiment Recruitment Assault units can no longer receive personnel from reserve battalions or territorial recruitment centers. The urgency is highlighted by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent appeal in Washington for 300 Patriot interceptor missiles ahead of winter. In terms of drones, July also saw a significant drop in the number of drones launched against Ukraine, down from the 6,583 documented in April to 4,955 recorded in July. Though reports also suggest that Russia’s use of jet-powered drones has increased. Of those, Ukraine downed or suppressed 4299 – or about 87%. Exceeding known production – but aided by North Korean supplies In mid-July, observers argued that Russia’s launch of 107-109 ballistic missiles within 19 days had exceeded previous assessments that Moscow could sustain around 100 missile launches per month. In early June, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) assessed that Russia could theoretically launch around 100 missiles without depleting its stockpile, estimating monthly production at 55-60 Iskander ballistic missiles and up to 50 S-300/S-400 missiles used in a ground-attack role, according to local outlet Ukrainska Pravda. While the air force has suggested in recent weeks that some missiles are being launched almost immediately after leaving the production line, Russia’s stockpile also appears to have been supplemented by North Korean supplies. On Thursday, Zelensky identified the missile that killed a family of 10 near central Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih on July 30 as North Korean. While there are no confirmed reports of recent arms shipments from North Korea to Russia, Pyongyang had previously sent artillery ammunition and missiles to Moscow, some of which were later identified in Ukraine. Zelensky has suggested that North Korea is set to send up to 30,000 troops to bolster Russia’s forces later this year. Satellite images also suggest that a road bridge between North Korea and Russia is nearing completion, which could facilitate future arms shipments and troop movements. A rise in Zircon cruise missiles July also saw a high number of Zircon cruise missiles launched – by mid-July, analysts said Russia had launched 20 Zircon missiles at Ukraine, or what was estimated to be two-thirds of Russia’s yearly production. The 3M22 Zircon (NATO designation: SS-N-33) is Russia’s nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missile. Measuring about 9 meters (30 feet) in length and 60 centimeters (24 inches) in diameter, it has a claimed range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a top speed of Mach 9 (around 11,026 km/h or 6,905 mph). First test-fired in 2017, the Zircon entered service in 2023 and was reportedly used in combat for the first time during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2024, according to Defense Express. Russia launched four Zircon missiles on July 1-2 and another six on July 5-6, with none reported intercepted. On July 19, Ukraine said Russia launched 10 Zircon missiles overnight before reporting that it had intercepted 17 Iskander-M, Zircon, and S-400 missiles combined, without specifying how many – if any – of the Zircons were shot down. S8000 ‘AliExpress’ Banderol drone-missile The air force also suggested in mid-July that Russia has begun to use more S8000 Banderol cruise missiles. The missile was previously publicized by HUR in May 2025 for its reliance on foreign parts, including its use of the Swiwin SW800Pro jet engine from China – a jet engine available on Chinese e-commerce platform AliExpress for approximately $16,000. However, in the air force’s daily updates, the missile is categorized as a drone lumped together with other drone types, and not counted towards the cruise missiles launched. The recent rise in S-8000 launches also suggests that it has entered serial production in Russia. Leo Chiu is a journalist and editor based in Eastern Europe since 2015. He has witnessed two presidential elections in Belarus and traveled widely to conflict zones and contested regions, producing reporting that bridges the gap between major developments and local realities.