PATRICK DARDIS: Rayner's overhaul of zero-hours contracts is a £3billion assault that proves when it comes to business, Labour really does have zero common sense

Imagine if Argentina hadn't scored in the 85th minute of this summer's World Cup semi-final.England were 1-0 up and only five minutes away from reaching their first World Cup final in 60 years – and pub landlords across the country were moments from securing their biggest trading day in recent history.Publicans would have been scrambling to get extra staff behind the bar for finals day on July 19.Every table would have been booked out and the beer gardens would have been crowded out.But then Argentina scored – twice. I don't mean to remind you of the heartbreak.But, as former chief executive of Young's Pubs, it was a perfect example of something successive Labour governments seem unable – or unwilling – to understand: Running a pub is an unpredictable business.One goal in a football tournament can boost your takings for a month.So can unexpected heatwaves – plenty of which we've seen this summer – while a rainy bank holiday can deliver a blow to profits. Patrick Dardis, former CEO of Young's, writes that Labour's proposed overhaul of zero hours contracts is a mistakeIn other words, it's impossible for a landlord to predict how many people will be needed behind the bar on any given day.Yet under Andy Burnham's planned crackdown on zero-hours contracts, that is exactly what publicans will be expected to do – paying workers to stand idle, in an industry that already runs on wafer-thin margins.The Government is 'consulting' on proposals, spearheaded by the newly reinstated Cabinet minister Angela Rayner, architect of the loathed Employment Rights Bill, that could give new rights to all workers on zero-hours contracts.At present, such deals do not specify a minimum number of hours to which workers are entitled.But Rayner's reforms would force companies to give staff a guaranteed number of hours per week, reflecting the hours they currently work.It would also require firms to give workers 'reasonable notice of shifts' and to pay them for shifts that have been 'cancelled, curtailed or moved at short notice'.I wrote in these pages at the beginning of the year that the last Labour government, under Keir Starmer, was waging a cruel and unending war of attrition against the British boozer.Under Starmer, Labour cut the business-rates relief on which pubs relied from 75 per cent to 40 per cent.Employers' National Insurance was hiked from 13.8 to 15 per cent, while the threshold at which we had to start paying it was slashed from £9,100 to just £5,000. Andy Burnham is continuing Labour's 'shameful' war on pubs, writes Patrick DardisThe National Living Wage jumped another 6.7 per cent – with the minimum wage for 18 to 20-year-olds, who make up much of many pubs' employees, soaring by more than 16 per cent.For an industry already battered by the Covid pandemic, rampant inflation and a 57 per cent rise in average utility bills over five years, it was yet another vicious hammer blow.Tragically, it proved fatal for many: British pubs have been disappearing at a rate of nearly two a day this year.And anyone who thought Andy Burnham might put an end to Labour's shameful war on British pubs is in for a nasty shock – however many pork scratchings our shallow new Prime Minister is photographed crunching for the benefit of his social media followers.He may have pledged a 20 per cent cut to business rates for pubs from April – but at the same time, he's brewing up something that will have a far more sinister effect on our industry.Ministers have said that under the plans, any worker who regularly clocks up to 20 hours a week should have the right to be offered a contract guaranteeing them a minimum number of hours. It could go further still.Burnham's Government is consulting on whether the policy should apply to those working up to 40 hours per week, with the consultation closing next week.On Wednesday, the Government finally revealed just how much this reckless proposal could cost businesses.Its own 'official impact assessment' found that the reforms 'could make it harder for employers to respond to changes in demand' and estimated that the 'direct cost' to employers – taking in guaranteed hours, a reasonable notice of shifts and compensation for cancellations – could reach £2.9billion per year. Zero hours contracts can be useful for students looking for holiday work or those with young children, argues Patrick DardisIt also, unsurprisingly, found that sectors such as hospitality and retail would bear the brunt of the changes.But it's not just bosses who will pay the price.Of course, zero-hours contracts have their downsides. Nobody should defend unscrupulous employers who use them to keep workers permanently on tenterhooks and cancel shifts at the last minute.For an enormous number of people, however, these contracts offer vital flexibility.On Wednesday night, I was at The King's Head Inn in Bledington, Gloucestershire (in my view, one of the country's greatest pubs), where I often prop myself up at the bar and chat to the landlord, Archie, about how business is going.Archie has two university-age sons and hopes that, one day, one of them might even take over the family business.When they come home for the holidays, he gives them shifts behind the bar – all properly recorded on the books, of course – allowing them to earn extra pocket money.It is an arrangement that suits everyone. Archie gets an extra pair of hands when the pub is busy and his sons get paid work when they want it, without having to commit to fixed hours during term time.Youth unemployment is already at its highest level in more than a decade – and Burnham has, supposedly, made getting more youngsters into work or training one of his first priorities as Prime Minister.In my role as CEO of Young's Pubs, which has more than 270 establishments across the country, I employed thousands of young people over the decades. So I know just how valuable these casual shifts can be.A few hours collecting used glasses or pulling pints might not sound like valuable work to our Cambridge-educated Prime Minister. But for a teenager, it can be their first taste of the working world.If Andy Burnham is serious about getting young people into work, the last thing he should be doing is loading businesses up with yet more red tape and paperwork – and giving already hard-pressed employers yet another reason to reconsider giving them a job. The latest proposals on zero hours contracts are being spearheaded by Angela Rayner following her return to GovernmentAnd it's not just youngsters. Archie also gives a few shifts each month to Pamela, a woman who lives nearby. She has a young child and can't commit to a regular weekly rota.But when she has the time and Archie needs some help, she can pick up a shift – and she's grateful for the extra money it brings in at a time when prices are going up. Again, what's not to like?Labour claims to have consulted widely on this policy. I struggle to believe they spoke to people like Archie or Pamela.No, judging by the proposals it seems, as usual for Labour, that the unions dominated discussions with precious little thought given to the people in need of wages or those creating the jobs.Andy Burnham entered No 10 vowing to 'make our high streets the new symbol of Britain's renaissance'. Instead, he's making absolutely sure that their beating hearts – the great British pub – will be ripped out for good.Patrick Dardis is the former CEO of Young's Pubs