Pat Leahy: What do Northern Ireland’s swing ‘persuadables’ see in Drumcree?

The Drumcree stand-off is continuing at the time of writing but whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: it has been a bad week for Northern Ireland and also for those impatient for a united Ireland.Everyone has contributed their bit. The Parades Commission didn’t consider the original application from the Orange Order properly, leaving the decision open to legal challenge. When that challenge was successful, the commission overcompensated by allowing a limited, 8am version: too much for Garvaghy Road residents, who – along with their allies – took to the street in not-an-inch style. Faced with the prospect of forcibly removing the protesters, the police blocked the march.Both sides accused each other of seeking to bring back the bad old days. Now the future of the powersharing administration and the assembly is under threat, as both Sinn Féin and the DUP, with an election in the middle distance, scurry away from compromise towards the sanctuary of their respective bases. Remember, both are under political pressure; both have benefited from the polarised nature of Northern Ireland elections, which has made them top dogs on each side. There is a political logic to being hardline. It’s all politics, not leadership.The political and social consequences of the revived dispute for the North will reveal themselves over time. For the prospect of a united Ireland, however, they are already discernible and damaging – among both northern and southern voters.READ MOREWhat will middle-ground voters in the North, many from a soft unionist/Protestant background, see when they look at Drumcree? Many unionists will never vote for a united Ireland. But the electoral arithmetic has changed: unionists are not an absolute majority and it is the middle ground, the “persuadables” who will decide any Border poll in the foreseeable future. So what did they see this week?[ From local row to peace-process shambles: How the Drumcree standoff developedOpens in new window ]Sure, they will see stubborn Orangemen intent on marching where they are not wanted. They will learn nothing new there. But they will also see the First Minister of Northern Ireland, who took office promising to be a “First Minister for all” standing in the middle of the road, in an illegal protest, in defiance a court order. The Parades Commission decision might have been stupid, but it was upheld by the highest court in Northern Ireland. When heads of government defy valid court orders because they don’t like them, we normally call it a constitutional crisis. Imagine what we would say if Donald Trump refused to comply with a Supreme Court decision. Can you imagine any Taoiseach saying, “We think the Supreme Court decision is wrong and we are not going to obey it”?It’s hard to see how Michelle O’Neill can continue in her role with any authority when she has declared that her party’s political exigencies are more important than the rule of law. The significance of this in the North is underappreciated in the South.What else will the Border poll “persuadables” in the North see? Buses arriving in Portadown filled with people dying to get involved. Several Sinn Féin TDs linking arms across the road and singing (for whatever reason); Mary Lou McDonald warning that if the march was permitted, “by God, there will be a reckoning”, sounding like nobody more than the Rev Ian Paisley. And remember: nobody is more aware than unionists that in a united Ireland, the largest party would be Sinn Féin.Also discomfiting for the persuadables is the way that other, non-SF southern politicians made it their business to arrive in Drumcree: were they really there to be constructive, or to post social media clips for nationalist voters? Peadar Tóibín: why? Paul Murphy: loves a protest, in fairness. And Sinéad Gibney of the Social Democrats, wearing a Palestinian scarf, in case the cause of the Palestinians would not be adequately represented on the Garvaghy Road. (Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were not present.)[ Taoiseach enters múinteoir-mode as he rejects comparison of Drumcree stand-off to GazaOpens in new window ]The message to the northern persuadables is that in a united Ireland, many southern politicians are full square behind northern nationalists. That can only make them wary of the promises that unionists will be entitled to full respect and protection in the “new Ireland”.For those in South, where a large majority broadly favour a united Ireland but are reluctant to consider any changes to the Republic that might accommodate unionists, the events at Drumcree will highlight the continuing sectarian divisions in Northern Ireland.The dispute over marching down the road stems, at its most basic, from the fact that elements on each side of the divide still detest each other. The Orangemen have such disregard for their neighbours that they want to march down their road even when they know they are not wanted there; the nationalists of Garvaghy Road, scarred by a history of subjugation, even if that ended nearly 30 years ago, won’t turn a blind eye to a handful of marchers at eight o’clock in the morning. The integrity of the ancient quarrel remains intact.Given the general disinterest in the North among many people in the South – unmissable in extensive research in recent years – a lot of people in the South might quietly conclude: this is not our problem. They’ll ask themselves: why should we import that sectarian mindset down here? Why would we want that security nightmare? That additional cost?[ Drumcree proves that unification of Ireland is the North’s best betOpens in new window ]Many people in the Republic will believe that the costs of a united Ireland – financial and otherwise – are worth it. But those who want to consider the price the South would have to pay – in social, political, constitutional, security, identity and financial terms – before they make up their mind will have been given much to think about over the past week.The great unity nightmare has always been that in parallel referendums, the North says yes and the South says, “eh, no thanks”. I fear that outcome has been made more likely by the events in Drumcree.