Pat Leahy: Any Celtic crusade against the imperialists in London would be very unwise

Donald Trump, as is his wont, put the cat among the pigeons last weekend with his comments about the inevitability and desirability of a united Ireland.United Irelanders, some of them busy protesting against Trump’s visit, wholeheartedly welcomed his far-sighted and statesmanlike comments: even Donald Trump can see it; why can’t Micheál Martin?Unionists reverse-ferreted on their occasional previous admiration for Trump: sure, everyone knows he’s a gobshite, why are you paying any attention to what he says?So it goes. A fortnight earlier, Andy Burnham declared that a Border poll was “off the table”. The pro-unity gang, led by Sinn Féin, went bananas while unionists chuckled a smug told-you-so. Welcome to the zero-sum politics of Northern Ireland, where there is no longer such a thing as a win-win.READ MOREWhatever his motivation, Trump’s intervention did one thing: it shunted the united Ireland question a few degrees further towards the centre of Irish political debate. This process has been gradually ongoing for several years. The question of Irish unity now features as a part of mainstream politics in the South in a way that it did not until the recent past.And yet, we shouldn’t get carried away. Surveys consistently show the issue ranking very low down the list of priorities for the vast majority of voters – typically around 1-2 per cent of people say it should be a priority for the Government.This has been described by academic and peace activist Padraig O’Malley succinctly: “The aspiration is strong, but the commitment is weak: sentiment is frequently contradictory, the result of southerners not giving much thought to the matter.”Polls consistently show a large majority in the South in favour of unity. Given the low engagement with the issue, though, it can’t be guaranteed that this would continue if it ever came to an actual campaign. The surveys are also clear that support for unity in the South becomes a lot shakier when people are asked to consider the sort of compromises on symbols, flags, the anthem, membership of the Commonwealth, etc, that might reasonably be considered necessary to ensure unionist buy-in. Though whether the nationalist majority on the island is much interested in unionist buy-in is another matter.But remember: flags and anthems and all that is the easy stuff. It’s before you get to the hard stuff about the costs, the merging of two states and the changes to the political and constitutional arrangements to accommodate a new, united Ireland.None of this means the argument for unity couldn’t be won in the South.But it does mean that the conversation will be rather more demanding than simply agitating for a Border poll as soon as possible and pretending everything will be all right on the night. I wouldn’t be too confident that people will buy that particular pig in a poke.[ Sinn Féin warns British government not to block Border pollOpens in new window ]In the North, demands for a Border poll overlook one important fact – polls consistently say there is no prospect right now of it passing. The Belfast Agreement stipulates that the Secretary of State shall call a Border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”. But those conditions do not exist at the moment.The most recent poll was the Institute of Irish Studies/Sunday Times poll in May, which found a 42 per cent to 58 per cent majority for remaining part of the UK, excluding don’t knows. The one before that was last autumn, the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey, which found a 44-56 per cent majority for the status quo.In 2024, in a survey conducted by The Irish Times and Arins, a coalition of academics brought together by the University of Notre Dame and the Royal Irish Academy, the gap was 41 per cent to 59 per cent. True, this showed a decline in the pro-union vote over the previous two years in a series of three polls. But it’s still a long way from it being “likely” that a vote for Irish unity in the North would pass.There are differences in methodologies between the different pollsters, with some showing stronger support for unity than others. But none of the regular polling shows anything remotely like a “probably yes” for unity. In the last 20 published polls taken on the issue in the North, the average lead for keeping the union with Britain is 17 per cent. These facts may be unwelcome for some people, and frequently ignored, but they are facts nonetheless.Nationalist hopes that the decline of the unionist vote and demographic changes will deliver a majority are not completely far-fetched, but the evidence is mixed. Many people from a Catholic background currently prefer to remain in the UK. In any case, rigid, binary identities are weakening, with the emergence of a middle ground: many of them younger people who do not see every issue through the prism of the constitutional question – one of the most striking developments in Northern Ireland since the ceasefires. If a referendum comes, these people will be the key to victory.I doubt they will be impressed by the Trumpian approach that unity is inevitable, so everyone might as well get on board. And I am not sure that Michelle O’Neill and Mary Lou McDonald aligning themselves this week with the Welsh and Scottish nationalists who want to break up the UK is a wise strategic move.The Belfast Agreement recognises that the North is different from the rest of the UK. It would be foolish and counterproductive to the unity cause to ignore that in order to join some sort of quixotic Celtic crusade against the imperialists in London.