Past forward: On Brazil’s presidential election, the first round

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, took a surprise lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, bringing the far right, defeated four years ago and embroiled in legal battles ever since, back to the centre of the country’s politics. Most opinion polls had put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist President, in the lead. But Mr. Flávio, who ran a pro-business election campaign, appears to have mobilised the right-wing and centrist votes, winning 47% of the vote, while Mr. Lula, seeking a fourth term, finished second with 45%. The popular mood in Latin America’s biggest economy seems to be shifting to the right, reflecting a broader trend across the continent. Jair Bolsonaro, the former President, is serving a 27-year sentence in jail since 2025 for plotting a coup, in 2022, against Mr. Lula and has been barred from contesting elections. But his wife Michelle and another son Carlos have been elected to the Senate, while Jair Renan, his youngest son, will become a federal Congressman. While the Bolsonaro clan has made a political comeback with its Liberal Party doubling its representation in the Senate and cementing its position in the lower house, Mr. Lula’s Workers’ Party struggled to hold its ground.Mr. Lula, who came back to active politics after his corruption convictions were annulled, beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, promising to rebuild Brazil’s social welfare system and economy and strengthen its democracy. He did relatively well in terms of macroeconomic indicators — Brazil recorded an average annual growth of 3% during 2023-25, and the annual unemployment rate fell from 6.6% in 2024 to 5.6% last year. His government raised spending and expanded welfare measures, which was a campaign promise to his core base. Real income rose and poverty fell. But three factors worked against him. First, Brazil’s fiscal situation became worse under Mr. Lula, and interest rates rose, upsetting the middle class and businesses. Second, he faced criticism over his handling of organised crime, while Mr. Flávio offered a more hardline approach. Third, Brazil’s conservative and evangelical sections, traditionally anti-left, rallied behind the Bolsonaro clan, mobilising right-wing support for Mr. Flávio, while many left-wing supporters, angry with mainstream politics, either abstained or cast invalid ballots. Mr. Lula’s camp accused the U.S. of electoral interference in favour of the Bolsonaros. As both candidates prepare for the October 25 run-off, Mr. Flávio may have an advantage as he and other right-wing candidates won more than 50% of the first-round vote. Mr. Lula will now have to persuade disillusioned voters on the left and appeal to the centrist swing votes to turn the tide. A tall ask, indeed. Published - October 08, 2026 12:10 am IST