'Pacific ocean like a person burning with fever': Scientists warn of stronger typhoons

Coastal areas in the Philippines, Taiwan, China, and Japan are facing an unprecedented challenge as they endure a series of violent storms.For people living along the coastlines of the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Japan, extreme weather is a familiar reality. However, the past few months have brought an unusually severe spell of storms, with their intensity and unpredictable movements causing widespread devastation.A series of powerful weather systems, intensified by the El Niño phenomenon, has claimed dozens of lives, disrupted air travel, damaged infrastructure and destroyed crops across large parts of East Asia.According to BBC, in October, Taiwan virtually came to a standstill as an enormous storm approached its north-eastern coastline. The typhoon, large enough to cover the island of 23 million people, generated winds of up to 295 kmph (193 mph), comparable to those of a Category 5 hurricane. Its strength was sufficient to destroy houses and generate powerful, potentially destructive waves.However, the storm did not make landfall in Taiwan, passing close to the island while bringing heavy rainfall. Despite avoiding a direct hit, it caused significant disruption across the region. Hundreds of flights were cancelled in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. In the Philippines' Batanes archipelago, coastal highways were closed as enormous waves battered the shoreline, while around 15,000 households in Japan's southern Okinawa islands experienced power outages.A succession of powerful stormsEl Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm ocean waters in the eastern Pacific and changes in atmospheric circulation. These conditions can influence weather patterns worldwide, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events.The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and can last for approximately a year. The current episode, which the UK met office has described as potentially the strongest in living memory, is expected to continue until February or March.The region has already experienced several major storms in recent months. In June, Japan faced the simultaneous approach of Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos towards its eastern coastline, prompting evacuation orders for nearly one million people.The following month, tropical storm Narra moved close to China's southern coastline near Guangxi, inundating villages and forcing tens of thousands of residents to leave their homes.In August, super typhoon dolphin travelled across the Pacific for 16 days before striking eastern China, triggering severe flooding and causing dozens of casualties. Later that month, Typhoon Saudel made landfall in three cities in south-eastern China within a week, disrupting transport services and prompting thousands to evacuate.Pacific Ocean generating greater storm intensityAccording to the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity of tropical cyclones during a season, the Pacific Ocean has accumulated substantial energy as a result of record-high temperatures linked to El Niño.The ACE reading for South-East and East Asia is projected to reach almost twice its 30-year average this year.Changes in wind patterns associated with El Niño are also influencing where typhoons develop. Storms are increasingly forming further east than usual and have more time to gather strength while travelling over unusually warm ocean waters.Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines' national weather bureau, compared the pacific ocean to a person "burning with fever", warning at a Manila press briefing in September that it could soon experience severe disturbances.The outlook remains concerning. In October, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific, monitored by the Japan meteorological agency for its El Niño forecasts, reached 4 degrees Celsius above normal. This was the highest level recorded since observations began in 1949. The previous record was 3.6 degrees celsius, registered in December 1997.China's climate agency has also cautioned that ocean temperatures could continue increasing over the following three months because of El Niño.Although the typhoon season generally reaches its peak between September and October, the continued warming of ocean waters has raised concerns that the region could face further destructive storms after enduring repeated weather emergencies.Scientists warn of escalating climate risksIn August, typhoon chan-hom surprised weather observers in Japan by travelling across the country from east to west, rather than following the more common south-to-north route.Japan's extensive disaster preparedness systems and well-equipped authorities enabled a swift evacuation response. However, countries with fewer resources and weaker emergency infrastructure could struggle to respond effectively to similarly unpredictable storms.To assess how rising temperatures could worsen extreme weather, manila-based climatologist Rafaela Jane Delfino and her research team simulated the potential effects of warmer conditions on some of the Philippines' most destructive storms. Their analysis included super typhoon Haiyan, also known as Yolanda, which struck in 2013 and killed more than 6,000 people.The researchers arrived at what Delfino described as "very, very scary findings". Their simulations indicated that higher temperatures could increase total accumulated rainfall by 26%.Such an increase could have devastating consequences for the Philippines, where flooding caused by monsoon rains and approximately 20 tropical storms annually remains a major natural disaster threat.In recent years, severe flooding has brought entire cities to a standstill for several days. Growing frustration over repeated flood-related disasters has also prompted Filipinos to protest against alleged corruption, which they claim has diverted millions of dollars allocated for flood-control infrastructure.In an article published on the university of the Philippines website, Delfino stressed the importance of ensuring that political leaders and government officials develop a stronger understanding of climate-related risks to improve community preparedness.Governments step up disaster preparednessGovernments across the region are taking measures to reduce the immediate impact of increasingly severe storms.Japan has advised residents to maintain supplies of food and essential items during the typhoon season. People have also been urged to secure outdoor furniture and other objects that could turn into dangerous projectiles during powerful winds.China, meanwhile, has instructed local authorities to identify vulnerable areas and strengthen weather monitoring and early-warning systems.The Philippines and other South-East Asian countries are also preparing for potential disruptions to agricultural production, particularly rice cultivation. Governments have expanded assistance to farmers, including the distribution of fertilisers, to minimise the impact on food supplies.However, the longer-term challenges remain uncertain. The united nations development programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific has warned that the opportunity for governments to take preventive action against El Niño-related risks is narrowing.The organisation highlighted that the severity of an El Niño's impact on communities is often determined years before the phenomenon occurs. Factors such as the location of roads and settlements, water management systems, the reach of social protection programmes and the availability of emergency funds all influence how effectively communities can withstand extreme weather."Every El Niño tests the resilience we have built; this one should also drive us to build more," the UNDP said, underlining the need for sustained investment in disaster preparedness and climate resilience