Overhang risk could distort council balance after elections

A party could win a ward with 30% support while opponents divide the remaining 70%, creating overhang across councils. South Africa’s municipal electoral system could face a constitutional challenge after next month’s local government elections if political parties win substantially more ward seats than their overall share of the vote justifies. The proportional representation (PR) system designed to balance ward victories may then run out of seats to correct the discrepancy. This may leave councils not adequately reflecting how residents voted. Growing political fragmentation could make such an outcome more plausible, with consequences for coalition governments. LIVE interactive map, latest news, multimedia and more! View Map System designed to balance ward victories may run out of seats While the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) maintains existing legislation is adequate, ActionSA has indicated it could consider a constitutional challenge. Political analyst Theo Neethling said the problem, known as electoral overhang, was not unique to South Africa. Other countries had introduced compensatory seats or expanded legislative bodies to correct imbalances. South Africa faces difficulties because legitimately elected ward councillors could not simply be removed. “The problem could become particularly apparent during the 2026 elections as multiparty politics and vote fragmentation increase,” said Neethling. A party does not need an outright majority to win a ward, only more votes than any other candidate. It could therefore win with 30% support while opponents divide the remaining 70%. Party could win ward with 30% support while opponents divide remaining 70% Repeated across enough wards, this could give a party substantially more council seats than its overall vote justifies. IEC spokesperson Kate Bapela acknowledged the theoretical possibility, but said safeguards limited the extent of overhang. “Councils are always 50% ward seats and 50% PR seats. That means no party can win more than half the council through wards alone,” she said. Parties winning more wards than their proportional entitlement would receive no additional PR seats. A Johannesburg DA ward councillor warned that parties placing mayoral candidates solely on PR lists could face another complication. Should an overhang leave their party without PR seats, the mayoral candidate might not return as a councillor, ending any prospect of becoming mayor. Ekurhuleni provides a hypothetical example. Its 224-member council has 112 ward and 112 PR seats. A party receiving 25% of the relevant vote would ordinarily qualify for about 56 seats. Ekurhuleni council example However, winning 78 wards would give it almost 35% of council, creating a 22-seat overhang. The remaining parties, collectively attracting 75% of the vote, would occupy only around 65% of council if its size remained unchanged. ActionSA’s Michael Basch said the consequences could extend beyond representation. “If one party ends up with 35% of the seats on 25% of the vote, 10 percentage points of council power have been taken from the parties voters actually chose. In a hung council, that difference decides who forms the coalition, who becomes mayor and who controls the budget,” he said. Although such an outcome would require a party to win about 70% of wards on a quarter of the vote, Basch said fragmented opposition support made it possible. Neethling cautioned that a discrepancy would not automatically constitute a constitutional crisis, although a sufficiently severe imbalance could invite litigation. “The irony is that greater political competition and a proliferation of parties – normally viewed as strengthening democracy – can actually lead to greater disproportionality,” he said. Johannesburg faces complications because 270-member council already at statutory maximum Johannesburg faces an additional complication because its 270-member council is already at the statutory maximum for a metropolitan municipality. Bapela said the IEC could not simply expand PR representation to correct an overhang. “Even if overhang occurs, the IEC cannot expand PR seats alone, it must expand ward seats equally, which would defeat the balancing purpose,” she said. Nevertheless, the commission maintained that existing legislation was adequate. “Overhangs are contained by the 50% ward cap, so they cannot distort councils beyond that threshold.” Basch argued that Schedule 1 of the Act allowed parties to retain excess ward seats without adequately compensating other parties. Directly elected ward had to be protected “Many other mixed systems add ‘balance seats’ for exactly this situation. Ours does not,” he said. DA Ekurhuleni mayoral candidate Khathutshelo Rasilingwane said directly elected ward councillors had to be protected without undermining proportional representation. “Ward representation is important because it gives communities a directly accountable councillor, but ward victories should not result in a council composition that is fundamentally disconnected from the overall vote,” she said. Rasilingwane said the DA would support reviewing the legislation if it proved inadequate, provided changes applied equally to all parties rather than benefiting particular electoral outcomes. ActionSA also supported a review, though Basch said changing the rules before the 4 November elections would undermine electoral certainty. He called for a review early in the next municipal term and said ActionSA would seek legal advice if a disproportionate result affected who governed.