‘Our Victory or Defeat’: Ukrainian Top Commander Reveals What Could Force Russia to Reconsider the War

Ukraine’s success or failure in the coming months will largely depend on whether it can defend its skies against Russian ballistic missiles and faster jet-powered attack drones, Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky said at the annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kyiv. “Our victory or defeat will depend on whether we can protect Ukrainian skies this winter,” said Biletsky, commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. He said Ukraine must counter two principal threats: ballistic missiles and jet-powered attack drones, including Shahed- and Banderol-type weapons. If Ukraine withstands Russia’s winter air campaign and prevents further battlefield advances, Moscow could face a fundamental decision over whether to continue the war, Biletsky said. “If we pass this test with dignity and effectiveness, I think March or April will confront Russia with an existential question: Why and how should it continue the war if it has not achieved any of its strategic objectives?” he said. That moment could create an opportunity for negotiations and a lasting peace largely on Ukraine’s terms, Biletsky added. The commander said Russia is pursuing two main strategic objectives: completing its occupation of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions and weakening the country’s ability to resist through attacks on civilians, energy facilities, industry, and the economy. Other Topics of Interest Europe Prepares for War as Germany Sends Up to 1,000 New Troops Only 60% of brigade posts have been filled voluntarily, leaving shortages of IT specialists, logisticians, cooks and other enlisted troops. According to Biletsky, Russia’s political leadership has demanded that its forces seize the entirety of the two eastern regions by the beginning of 2027, while Russian military commanders have set a deadline of mid-April. “Russia’s political leadership is demanding that they finish it within the absolutely unrealistic timeframe of the beginning of 2027,” the commander said. Russia has repeatedly set new deadlines for capturing all of the Donetsk region, a central war objective that its forces have failed to achieve despite years of costly offensives. Ukraine is preparing for intensified fighting around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two key cities in its remaining defensive belt in Donetsk. Biletsky and Denys Prokopenko, commander of the National Guard’s 1st Azov Corps, are among the commanders overseeing the region’s defense. Biletsky said the situation on the front remains difficult but is not the worst Ukraine has faced during the war. “It is not easy. It is difficult. But the front is not going through its hardest period compared with previous years,” he said. Ukraine has “every chance” of holding advantageous defensive positions, preserving its belt of fortified cities, and improving its position in parts of the Donetsk front, he said. “I think that in the near future, within a month, we will demonstrate these improvements to the entire world, and they will be undeniable,” Biletsky said. He did not provide operational details. The 22nd YES Annual Meeting was held in Kyiv on Sept. 11-12 under the theme “Peace Through Strength NOW!” It brought together about 700 politicians, diplomats, military personnel, veterans, business leaders, activists, and experts from 28 countries. Kateryna investigates today's most important topics, from geopolitical challenges and defense strategies to stories that change the course of events. She explores the secrets of Ukraine's intelligence services and shows the hidden side of global events. Her passion is uncovering secrets that change history. Born and lives in Kyiv.