Our 7 Boldest Emmy Awards Predictions

4 min readThis story ran in Esquire’s entertainment newsletter, “The Cliff-Hanger.” Sign up here.The 2026 Emmy Awards take place on a Monday night this year, at 8:00 p.m. ET on September 14 via NBC/Peacock. Though I won’t win a golden statuette, I’d like to thank the Academy for giving entertainment journalists our Sundays back.The Emmys also made predicting who might win a little easier. Over the weekend, the Academy gave out a total of 102 early awards for directing, writing, makeup, costuming, and many other craft categories. The major acting awards remain up for debate until Monday night’s broadcast.The big winners so far? Widow’s Bay, the risky Apple TV series starring Matthew Rhys, who plays the mayor of a cursed New England town. It blew us away this summer thanks to its unique blend of comedy and horror. DTF St. Louis also triumphed early with six Emmys already. The HBO dark comedy about a love triangle starring Jason Bateman, Linda Cardellini, and David Harbour feels like a lock for Outstanding Limited Series. But I’m getting ahead of myself.Below I’ve broken down what I believe will be the seven biggest stories of the night come Emmy Monday.Apple TVWidow’s Bay DominatesHorror and comedy aren’t easy TV genres to write, let alone combine. Widow’s Bay proved that it was up to the task this summer, and it looks like the Emmy voters agree that it should walk away as Monday night’s biggest winner. Already Widow’s Bay is leading the race with eight wins for guest acting (Betty Gilpin), casting, cinematography, production design, and several music and sound categories. I expect that dominance to continue with wins for Outstanding Comedy Series, Lead Actor (Matthew Rhys), and especially Supporting Actress (Kate O’Flynn).Warrick Page/HBO MaxNoah Wyle and The Pitt Go Back-to-BackAs much as I loved Pluribus, I’d be surprised to see the Apple TV comedy drama beat out The Pitt season 2 for Outstanding Drama Series. There has been so much love for the HBO medical drama over the past two years, and season 2 continued the show’s impeccable track record. There’s always the chance for overexposure. We may have poured so much praise onto Noah Wyle and The Pitt that we’re ready to move on and champion another promising new series like Pluribus on Monday night, but I get the feeling that we’re just not there so soon.AppleRhea Seehorn Sees GoldPluribus may have been created just for Rhea Seehorn to finally win an Emmy, and I’m fine with that! The Apple TV series about a woman who finds herself as one of the last surviving humans on earth following a global pandemic might be a bit too strange (and timely) for the wide Emmy voting body to award it Outstanding Drama, but it’s damn near impossible not to recognize Seehorn here. Still, she’s up against heavy competitors in Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age), Keri Russell (The Diplomat), Chase Infiniti (The Testaments), and Zendaya (Euphoria).Apple TVMatthew Rhys’s Big NightI’ve already mentioned my prediction that Rhys will take Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy) for Widow’s Bay. Why stop there? The actor is also nominated in Lead Actor (Limited Series) for his role in Netflix’s crime thriller The Beast in Me. He could win both. His strongest competition in Lead Actor (Comedy) is Steve Carell for Rooster. Meanwhile, he’s up against Charlie Hunnam (Monster), Oscar Isaac (Beef), Jason Bateman (Black Rabbit), and Riz Ahmed (Bait) in Limited Series—a category that has been largely dominated by DTF St. Louis so far.HBODTF St. Louis Is Down to WinSpeaking of DTF St. Louis, it looks like the winner of Outstanding Limited Series is already decided. The HBO comedy drama took home six Emmys over the weekend—the second most for a scripted series this year so far, behind Widow’s Bay. Creator Steven Conrad won for Outstanding Writing and Directing. David Harbour beat out his costars Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins for Supporting Actor. Linda Cardellini won Outstanding Supporting Actress. Plus, DTF continued its sweep in cinematography, scoring, and picture editing. All that’s left is the big prize.HBOHacks Is Over, But This Is Still Jean Smart’s AwardJean Smart won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy) for every season of Hacks. I don’t expect that to end on Monday night, especially since she’s up for Hacks’s final season. But now that Hacks is finished, maybe someone else can win next year.HBOMy One Hope? Tom Pelphrey for TaskTask significantly cut its chances for an Emmy when HBO renewed the crime drama for season 2. As a limited series, I thought it would sweep. But against The Pitt? Even a series as good as Task would be, well, put to task. Still, I’d love to see Tom Pelphrey take home the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor (Drama). I wouldn’t be upset at all to see the award go to The Pitt’s Gerran Howell, Patrick Ball, or Shawn Hatosy—who are all nominated in the same category this year—but Pelphrey pulled off a performance with incredible range in Task. Personally, there’s no one else on Monday night whom I’m rooting for more.