Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race

Frontrunners1. Spain — La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND2. Romania/Automatic entry via Cannes Film Festival’s Palme d’Or — Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, LOND3. South Korea — Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23) VENI, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND, AFI4. Japan — All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) CANN, KARL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND, AFI5. France — Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND Major Threats6. Austria — Rose (MUBI, Dec. 11, THR review) BERL, KARL, TELL, NYFF, LOND, AFI7. Poland — Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) CANN, KARL, TELL, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND8. Belgium — Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) CANN, KARL, TIFF, SANS, LOND9. United Kingdom — Rehearsals for a Revolution (Sony Classics, Dec. 4, THR review) — Pegah Ahangarani CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, DNYC, AFI, CCDA Still to See or Under EmbargoAutomatic entry via Sundance Film Festival’s World Cinema Grand Jury Prize (Dramatic) — Shame and Money (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) SUNDAutomatic entry via Berlin Film Festival’s Golden Bear — Yellow Letters (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) BERL, KARL, AFIAutomatic entry via Busan Film Festival’s Grand Prize — Midday Meal (self-distributed, TBD) — Majid MajidiAlbania — A State Film (Cinecittà, TBD) VENI (’25)Algeria — Roqia (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)Armenia — In the Land of Arto (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)Australia — First Light (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Bangladesh — Roid (Bioskope, TBD)Bolivia — The Condor Daughter (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25)Bosnia and Herzogovina — The Widower (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Brazil — Gugu’s World (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Bulgaria — The Dreamed Adventure (Janus, TBD) CANN, TIFF, ZURI, LONDCambodia — Becoming Human (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25), LOND (’25)Cameroon — Mabanda (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Canada — Nina Roza (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) BERL, AFIChad — Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Chile — The Meltdown (Kino Lorber, TBD, THR review) CANNChina — Once Upon a Time in the Middle East (Oct. 9, Well Go USA)Colombia — Rains Over Babel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUND (’25)Costa Rica — If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Croatia — God Will Not Help (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)Cuba — Malecón (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Cyprus — Hold onto Me (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUNDCzech Republic — If Pigeons Turned to Gold (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERL, KARLDemocratic Republic of the Congo — Rumba Royale (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Denmark — Woman Unknown (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFF, LONDDominican Republic — Melodrama (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Ecuador — The Ivy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)Egypt — The Stories (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)El Salvador — Vertices (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Estonia — Our Erika (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Finland — The Squirrel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Georgia — Guria (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENIGermany — Everytime (1-2 Special, TBD, THR review) CANN, TIFF, NYFF, ZURI, LOND, AFIGreece — Broken Vein (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Guatemala — Mountains of Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Hong Kong — Sons of the Neon Night (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN (’25), ZURI (’25)Hungary — Silent Friend (1-2 Special, May 8) VENI (’25), TIFF (’25), ZURI (’25), LOND (’25), AFI (’25)Iceland — The Ground Beneath Our Feet (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)India — Gondhal (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Indonesia — Four Seasons in Java (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFFIran — The Land of Angels (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Iraq — No Paradise If You Are Killed by a Woman (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENIIreland — Aontas (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Israel — Tell Me Everything (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUNDItaly — The Spiral (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFFJordan — Sink (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25), LOND (’25)Kazakhstan — Abel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Kenya — One Woman One Bra (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25), LOND (’25), TRIBKosovo — Dua (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, ZURIKyrgyzstan — Kassandra (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Latvia — Ulya (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANNLebanon — Furies (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFF, LONDLithuania — How to Divorce During the War (Kino Lorber, Aug. 21) SUND, KARL, ZURILuxembourg — Child (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Malaysia — The Fox King (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25)Malta — Żejtune (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TRIBMexico — On the Road (Strand, Oct. 28, THR review) VENI (’25)Mongolia — Independence: Keeper of the Prophecy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Montenegro — To Hold a Mountain (Submarine, Dec. 16) SUND, LONDMorocco — Strawberries (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANNNepal — Elephants in the Fog (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, KARL, TIFF, LOND, AFINetherlands — Paikar (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Nigeria — Dear Ajayi (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENINorth Macedonia — 17 (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERLNorway — Growth of the Soil (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFFPakistan — Hanging by a Wire (Abramorama, Aug. 28) SUND, TRIBPalestine — Citizen Osama (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, AFIPanama — Chichero (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Peru — Night Has Come (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) KARL (’25)Philippines — Filipiñana (Kino Lorber, Aug. 28) SUND, BERL, KARL, LONDRwanda — Ben’lmana (Alexander, TBD) CANN, KARL, TIFF, LOND, AFISaudi Arabia — A Matter of Life and Death (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Senegal — The Attachment (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Serbia — Wanderlust (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Singapore — We Are All Strangers (Film Movement, TBD) BERL, TIFF, AFISlovakia — Flood (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Slovenia — Fantasy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)South Africa — Variations on a Theme (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LONDSri Lanka — Riverstone (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Sweden — Adult Supervision (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Switzerland — Who Is Still Alive (Watermelon, TBD) VENI (’25), LOCASyria — The Other Side of the Sun (Icarus, TBD) BERLTaiwan — A Foggy Tale (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Thailand — 9 Temples to Heaven (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, NYFF, LOND, AFITurkey — Like a Limbless Tree (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)Ukraine — Traces (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERL, DNYCUruguay — A Loose End (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)Venezuela — Death Has No Master (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, LOCAVietnam — Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor (Papaian, TBD) TIFF