Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Read of the Race

Commentary The Odyssey has been massively successful both critically (it is at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and commercially (it has grossed $1.6 billion worldwide, #14 of all time). That being said, and contrary to some reporting, it did not play through the roof at its official Academy screening in LA — it was warmly but not effusively received, and its principal talent opted not to appear for a post-screening Q&A, which didn’t help matters. But it certainly has been seen and liked by more Academy members around the world than any other film, many of whom do love it, so it is indeed the clear frontrunner. Other top-tier contenders include Project Hail Mary, which was also a giant critical and commercial success, and probably benefits from being a little more light-hearted than most of its competition; two Cannes darlings, La Bola Negra, a sweeping Spanish-language epic which is Netflix’s principal cause this awards season, and Fjord; and The Invite, a Sundance darling that went on to very strong reviews and box office for a film of its size. The title that is likeliest to pop out of the fall fests may well be Wild Horse Nine; it’s very quirky, but so too were Martin McDonagh’s earlier films Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, which were widely embraced by the Academy. Can another true blockbuster join The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary in the 10? Keep an eye on Toy Story 5, Michael and Obsession — I’m sure the Academy and its broadcasting partner, ABC, will! Frontrunners1. The Odyssey (Universal, July 17, THR review) — Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM, March 20, THR review) — Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Aditya Sood & Andy Weir3. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight, Nov. 6) — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh & Anita Overland VENI4. La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) — Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo CANN, TIFF5. Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) — Dyveke Bkørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar & Tudor Reu CANN, KARL, TIFF6. The Invite (A24, June 26, THR review) — Ben Browning, Megan Ellison & David Permut SUND7. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street, Dec. 4) — Georgina Lowe TIFF, NYFF8. Ink (Netflix, Dec. 11) — Danny Boyle, Michael Ellenberg, Tessa Ross & Tracey Seaward VENI, TIFF9. Paper Tiger (Neon, Nov. 13, THR review) — Andrea Bucko, Gary Farkas, Anthony Katagas, Raffaella Leone, Marco Perego, Carlo Salem & Rodrigo Teixeira CANN, KARL, NYFF10. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar, June 19, THR review) — Jessica Choi & Lindsey Collins Major Threats11. Michael (Lionsgate, 4/24, THR review) — John Branca, Graham King & John McClain12. Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) — Edward Berger, Lorenzo Gangarossa, Mario Gianani, Lorenzo Mieli, Ewa Puszczyńska, Dimitri Rassam & Jeanne Tremsal CANN, KARL, NYFF13. All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) — Renan Artukmaç, Bettina Brokemper, Julien Deris, David Gauquié, Hiroko Matsuda, Jean-Luc Ormières, Kôsuke Oshida, Joseph Rouschop & Yûji Sadai CANN, TIFF, NYFF14. Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) — Charles Gillibert & Andrei Zvyagintsev CANN, TIFF, NYFF15. Obsession (Focus, May 15, THR review) — James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri & Roman Viaris-de-Lesegno TIFF16. Tuner (Black Bear, 5/22, THR review) — Michael Heimler, Teddy Schwarzman, JoAnne Sellar & Lila Yacoub TIFF, SUND Possibilities17. Sense and Sensibility (Focus, Oct. 16) — Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, India Flint & Jo Wallet18. Josephine (Sumerian, Nov. 20, THR review) — Jesse Hope, Josh Peters & Max Walker-Silverman SUND, BERL19. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix, Oct. 30) — Peter Berg, Alex Gayner & Brian Grazer20. Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) — Michiel Dhont CANN, KARL21. Being Heumann (Apple, Nov. 6) — John W. Beach, Kevin Cleary, Sian Heder, David Permut & Kevin Walsh TIFF22. Tony (A24, Aug. 7, THR review) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller, Tim White & Trevor White Long Shots23. Backrooms (A24, May 29, THR review) — Kori Adelson, Peter Chernin, Michael Clear, Dan Cohen, Chris Ferguson, Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, Roberto Patino, Osgood Perkins, Jenno Topping & James Wan24. The Liberation (Bleecker Street, TBD) — Julia Lebedev, Roy Lee, Oren Moverman, Jaime Ray Newman, Steven Schneider & Eddie Vaisman TIFF25. Bunker (Sony Classics, TBD) — Fernando Bovaira, Alice Dawson, Federica Sainte-Rose & Simón de Santiago VENI, TIFF26. Tenzing (Apple, Oct. 9) — Desray Armston, Iain Canning, Luke Davies, Jennifer Peedom, Emile Sherman & Liz Watts27. Disclosure Day (Universal, June 12, THR review) — Kristie Macosko Krieger & Steven Spielberg Still to See or Under EmbargoArtificial (Neon, TBD) — Jeffrey Clifford, Jennifer Fox, Luca Guadagnino, David Heyman & Simon RichBehemoth! (Searchlight, Dec. 4) — John Gilroy, Tony Gilroy & Sanne Wohlenberg NYFFClub Kid (A24, Nov. 6, THR review) — Alex Coco, Galen Core & Ryan Heller CANNThe Debut (A24, Dec. 11) — Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McNary & Emma Stone TIFF, NYFFDIGGER (Warner Bros., Oct. 2) — Tom Cruise, Alejandro González Iñarritu & Mary ParentDune: Part Three (Warner Bros., Dec. 18) — Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent & Denis VilleneuveElsinore (Focus, Nov. 20) — Carolyn Marks Blackwood, Mickey Liddell, Stefano Massenzi, Andrea Occhipinti, Andrew Scott, Pete Shilaimon & Gabrielle Tana TIFF, LONDThe Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix, Nov. 25) — Ceán Chaffin, David Heyman, Brad Pitt & Quentin TarantinoHeart of the Beast (Paramount, Sept. 25) — David Ayer, Marty Bowen, Olivia Hamilton & Brad PittI Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 13) — Christian Baha, Toby Emmerich & Peter Farrelly TIFFMadden (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 26) — Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Matthew Budman, Jonathan Shukat & Steve TischMr. Irrelevant (Paramount, Dec. 25) — Gillian Bohrer, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jonathan Levine & Nick SantoraPossible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23) — Lee Joon-dong, David Levine & Chadwick PrichardPrimetime (A24, Sept. 25) — Ari Aster, Fred Berger, Tyler Campellone, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Lars Knudsen, Brighton McCloskey & Robert Pattinson VENIThe Social Reckoning (Sony, Oct. 9) — Stuart M. Besser, Todd Black, Peter Rice & Aaron SorkinWerwulf (Focus, Dec. 25) — Tim Bevan, Garrett Bird, Robert Eggers, Eric Fellner & Sjón Sigurdsson