Orioles vs. Rockies MLB picks: Baltimore in potential trap spot at end of long trip, facing profitable Sugano

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. The Orioles might be looking at a trap this afternoon at the Rockies to close a long trip Sep 2, 2026 at 8:52 am ET • 4 min read Could the AL East become the first division in a 162-game season to send four teams to the playoffs? That could partly depend on whether the Baltimore Orioles avoid what appears to be a mega-trap game in a series finale this afternoon at the awful Colorado Rockies. It's a 3:10 ET first pitch from Coors Field on a getaway day. Bet $5+ on any of Wednesday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:Fans can try MLB betting on the best sports betting apps and get bonuses. The SportsLine Projection Model also has picks on games like Orioles-Rockies from its 10,000 simulations, and our experts also offer insights on games every day.Note that four teams from the NL Central made the postseason in 2020, but that was when the field expanded to 16 teams because of the COVID-shortened 60-game regular season. There have been several occasions where a division has gotten three teams in during a usual season, last in 2024 with the Guardians, Royals and Tigers from the AL Central. The Twins were in the wild-card race almost to the end to make it four teams in but ended up finishing four out of the last spot. I say Baltimore's chances might depend on today because every game can count – just ask the 2025 Astros, who finished tied for the AL's final wild card spot with the Tigers but lost a tiebreaker. The Orioles have been surging for weeks – how about that amazing, game-saving catch by Colton Cowser in Monday's win at Coors Field? -- despite largely selling at the trade deadline, but you'd somewhat understand a trap loss today. Although, being upset Tuesday might sharpen the focus a little.It's the end of a very successful nine-game trip and ahead of a huge homestand with series against fellow wild card contenders Boston and Cleveland. So it would be very easy to overlook the Rockies today, but good teams can avoid that type of thing in September. Baltimore (69-70) sits 1.5 games out of the AL's final playoff spot and is given a 22.4% shot via the SportsLine Projection Model for extra baseball. Place your Orioles-Rockies wagers and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back at BetMGM Sportsbook::The Rockies had lost five in a row overall and a franchise-record 10 straight at home, the longest home losing streak in the majors this season, before Tuesday's 4-2 victory. Even the worst big-league players have pride. Orioles lefty Trevor Rogers (9-9, 4.38 ERA), a pending free agent who was shopped at the trade deadline, takes the mound today. He is about the definition of a break-even pitcher, as you would be up $102 if you wagered $100 on each of his starts for the Orioles to win. They are 13-12 overall in those starts. The 28-year-old comes off his worst start of the season after he allowed six runs and seven hits over five in a loss at St. Louis. Homers were an issue, as Rogers allowed two and those accounted for five of the six runs allowed. He has allowed at least one homer in five straight games after zero in each of the previous three. "The damage lately has just been the homers. Try to figure out how to get the ball on the ground more consistently," Rogers said to the media after that Cardinals outing. "Just lately, the homers have been killing me. I'm going to give up base hits, that's baseball."Obviously, Coors Field is as homer-happy as any park in the majors and Rogers' lone outing there came in June 2022 with the Marlins. He allowed five runs (one homer) over 5.2 innings of a no-decision. The model forecasts Rogers at 5.8 innings, 5.0 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs today. Only a few active Colorado batters have seen him, and none have a hit. Orioles-Rockies MLB same-game parlayColorado alt +2.5Alt Under 13 DraftKings SGP price: +114 (subject to change) For a while there, Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano (12-8, 5.23 ERA) was the most profitable in the majors, and he's still a very good plus-$1136, but the 36-year-old has come crashing back to earth of late as he was 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA in five August starts. He gave up a season-high 10 hits in just four innings last time out in Atlanta.This will mark Sugano's first career start against the Orioles as the 36-year-old from Japan spent his 2025 rookie year with Baltimore with pretty similar all-around numbers. The model has him at 5.2 innings, 3.5 strikeouts, 5.8 hits allowed and 3.2 earned runs. A couple of Orioles saw him last year while with other teams. Pete Alonso, for example, is 0-for-2 with an RBI. Bet on MLB and more at FanDuel, where bettors can get up to $350 in bonus bets:Human nature for the Orioles guys to be dragging as they look to return home for the first time since Aug. 23. It appears they started dragging last night and perhaps looking ahead to a big home series this weekend vs. Boston. Colorado is off on Thursday so it can use every arm in the bullpen if need be to help with the total. No crazy weather this afternoon. The model has Baltimore winning by a score of 5.5-4.8. That works. 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