Oregon vs. Ohio State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Buckeyes' CFP hopes in danger against Ducks

No. 12 Ohio State hosts No. 23 Oregon in a pivotal game in the Big Ten and CFP race Nov 5, 2026 at 3:50 pm ET • 5 min read Week 10 of the college football calendar has been highlighted since the schedule was released, with No. 23 Oregon's trip to face No. 12 Ohio State among the headliners. However, when the Buckeyes host the Ducks at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, it will not be two teams vying for a bye in the College Football Playoff, but instead two programs trying to keep their season from unraveling.The Ducks, at 5-3, have already seen their playoff dreams snuffed out, but a win last week against Northwestern brought their offense to life after a coordinator change. Dylan Raiola had his best game as a starter for Oregon in a win over Northwestern, and now the Ducks have real belief they can go into the Horseshoe and pick up a win that could salvage what's been a disappointing season. Ohio State, meanwhile, comes in with a backup quarterback of their own and is searching for answers after a 30-18 loss on the road to USC last week. Luke Fahey will get his second start and first at home, hoping to find more success and keep Ohio State in the playoff hunt after the first CFP rankings put them at No. 12 -- which would be the first team out of the 12-team playoff. The winner on Saturday will enter the stretch run of the season feeling like they've stabilized after a shock to the system in the form of losing their star quarterbacks for the year. The loser, on the other hand, will realize their goals are no longer within reach and face some hard questions entering the offseason. Ohio State vs. Oregon: Need to know Can Ohio State solve red-zone woes?: The Buckeyes moved the ball fine against USC's defense. It was the best rushing performance from Ohio State this season in Big Ten play in terms of yards per carry (4.74), and while Fahey missed some explosives, he still threw for 260 yards. The problem for Ohio State was finishing drives with six points instead of three. Ohio State made four trips into the red zone against USC and came away with just 13 points. Against Indiana, they also scored 13 points in three trips to the red zone, and their inability to come away with touchdowns nearly cost them there too. If the Buckeyes are going to control this game and keep Oregon from building belief they can win on the road, Fahey has to be sharper in the red zone and the Ohio State rushing attack has to be able to help out. Ducks find life after coordinator change: Oregon's offense had its best performance since the win at USC last Saturday afternoon against Northwestern, one week after firing offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. Interim coordinator Jay Johnson seemed able to get Raiola into a rhythm and keep him there, something the Ducks have struggled with all season (even with Dante Moore). The frustration after the Illinois game seemed to be an unwillingness to stick with what worked -- in that game, it was the run game -- and against Northwestern, once they found some concepts that worked, they went back to the well until proven otherwise. That seems simple, but it's not always easy as a play-caller to not let your mind wander and get too cute trying to stay ahead of the defense. Johnson seems more comfortable just rolling with what works and being aggressive in any spot, which seems to have a trickle-down effect on Raiola and the offense, also playing with more comfort and aggression. That's going to be necessary against an Ohio State defense that is quite good but, as USC proved, can be hit for big plays. Oregon can't be afraid to take swings as a road dog, and last week's performance gives them some confidence they can do that effectively with Raiola. Which defense can steal possessions?: With a young quarterback and a red-zone offense that's struggling, the Buckeyes might need their defense to give them a spark. For as good as the Buckeyes have been defensively this season, they haven't been great at turning teams over. They have just four interceptions on the year (94th nationally) and are 48th in total turnovers forced at 11. Raiola has been prone to turnovers for his entire career dating back to Nebraska and will likely present a couple of opportunities -- either with interceptable balls or strip sacks -- for the Buckeyes to steal a possession or two. Ohio State has to capitalize on those chances if they want to help their sputtering offense. On the other side, the best way to make Ohio State tight in this one would be to pick off the young quarterback and make Ryan Day a bit anxious about letting the young man sling it. Oregon has nine interceptions this season (13th in the country), and if they can bait the freshman into an early mistake, it could alter the Buckeyes' game plan and give the Ducks an even better opportunity on the road. Where to watch Ohio State vs. Oregon live Date: Saturday, Nov. 7 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Location: Ohio Stadium -- Columbus, OhioTV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App Streaming on Paramount+ PremiumOhio State vs. Oregon prediction, picks The Ducks have to pick up where they left off offensively to have a chance here, and they should push the tempo a bit and try to stretch things out in the air. Ohio State should be able to run the ball well, and at home I would expect Fahey and the offense to operate a bit better in the red zone to put touchdowns on the board when they do move the ball. A Ducks offense trying to push it in the passing game should result in big plays (possibly for both teams), and this is a rare big game where I'm anticipating plenty of points. Pick: OVER 46.5 SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 10 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's 80-77 on top-rated CFB picks this season.