[OPINION] Will Pax Silica be another proverbial fish that got away for the Philippines?

It was about six months ago when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed for the country’s participation as the 13th signatory and key player in the US Pax Silica initiative. But nothing concrete seems to have been accomplished more than just that since then. Beside from drawing immediate opposition from self-styled nationalists, environmental activists and security experts, the government agencies that are supposedly involved in the program seem to be not in synch, much less organized, as to what they should be doing to make things happen — an awkward situation that became glaringly evident from a legislative inquiry made on the matter. This situation could also well explain why the general public is now even more confused than enlightened as to what exactly it is all about, what are at stake, and what is in it for the country to be a key player. It also appears that this lack of coordination among the government agencies involved in the international initiative and coalition framework appears to be contributing more to the confusion of the general public than the disinformation campaign sowed against Pax Silica by the vociferous individuals and interest groups regarded as nothing but China’s puppies by the silent majority who actually form the true backbone of the country. As I see it, the longer the government stays this way, there is a good chance that Pax Silica may again become the proverbial fish that got away. To quote the popular local idiom that best captures its regrettable outcome in vivid and derisive terms, “’Pag hindi tayo kumilos agad, maiiwan na naman tayo sa pancitan dito.” (In plain English, ‘If we don’t act fast enough, we will miss out on this, again.’) To truly understand the real issues and opportunities it brings, the Monday Circle forum dedicated its bimonthly meeting last August 24 — in the way it has always been designed as a platform — to distill and breakdown issues like this high-level multilateral structural blueprint for collaboration into its coherent concept. Two very qualified and independent-minded consultants, very updated on the subject, were invited as resource persons to steer the discussions, namely: Claire Tayco and Cesar Tolentino. Claire Tayco is the CEO of Cirrolytix Research Services, a research and advancement firm working at the intersection of data, artificial intelligence, public policy, and social impact. She is a statistician and data scientist by training, and spent much of her career in quantitative risk management before moving into AI, analytics, governance, and policy work. Her recent works through Cirrolytix revolve around how emerging technologies like AI is reshaping economies and geopolitics, and where should the Philippines position itself — similar to the question on Pax Silica. Cesar Tolentino is a statistician by training with more or less three decades of consulting experience providing strategic advice in today’s many top BPO industry firms. His stint with the University of Asia and the Pacific and consulting company XMG Asia-Pacific, led him to expand his practice into IT and telecom, supporting the growth plans of companies in the industry. To name a few, these included Broadband Philippines, Converge ICT, Microsoft Philippines, Oracle Philippines, and PLDT. He serviced as well entities like the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (AmCham), Asian Development Bank (ADB), IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), US Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, and an extensive consulting work with the members of the Semiconductors and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Inc. (SEIPI). This shift also gave him the opportunity to work for the Congressional Committee for Science Technology and Engineering (COMSTE), providing research support for the creation of various legislations such as the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012, the Design Competitiveness Act of 2013 and the DICT Act of 2015. With such exposure, he continues to provide legislative support and assistance in the areas of industry development and capacity-building for the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), creative industries, energy/power, healthcare, and telecommunication sectors. Finally, he has contributed to various government development initiatives for such organizations as the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Department of Agriculture (DA), Board of Investments (BOI), Center for International Trade Expositions and Missions (CITEM), Design Center of the Philippines (DCP), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Department of Finance (DOF), Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS). What it is all about: Historical antecedent Tolentino gave a good historical overview behind the US Pax Silica initiative which could be traced back to the COVID-19 crisis of 2020 when, as a result, “the US experienced an economic shutdown caused by global supply chain disruptions” together with “China’s growing role as the world’s factory.” Considering their balance of trade dispute, Tolentino said the US sought for ways to mitigate its economy’s susceptibility to another supply chain shutdown should their dispute with China escalate. The US assembled a coalition of allies for building a strategic supply chain that would decouple and gain strategic autonomy from China. As part of its strategy to retain US global dominance in AI technological expertise and leadership which is its most important economic product, the US also devised this plan to “redefine the policy framework of its economic relationship with China — a country that is dependent on US technological expertise in AI but at the same time the country that is also seeking global leadership in the same technology.” Pax Silica, therefore, is clearly an American initiative to primarily advance American interests and global technological dominance. Also, the program brings several concerns that may pose as a problem to the host country such as the Philippines. What is it: The Philippine side On December 11, 2025, the US announced the Pax Silica Summit and the planned signing of the Pax Silica Declaration to serve as the US State Department’s flagship effort on AI and supply-chain security. The Philippines was invited to join the alliance after the December 2025 Summit, in which it did eventually on April 17, 2026. The US described Pax Silica as a framework focused on securing supply chains for advanced technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) and rare earth elements. The initiative also implicitly targets reducing reliance on China and countering its dominance in these fields. For the Philippines, this will involve the development of a 4,000-acre (roughly, 1,619 hectares) “economic security zone” into an “AI-native industrial hub,” purposely built for advanced manufacturing and semiconductor operations in New Clark City (in Capas, Tarlac), a planned community project envisioned by the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) in 2012 as a proposed new capital city in lieu of Metro Manila. PAX SILICA. US Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg (center) and BCDA CEO Joshua Bingcang (right) and World Bank Deputy Valerie Levkov (second from right) at the unveiling of the marker for Pax Silica at the site of the Economic Security Zone in New Clark City on May 18, 2026. Out of the total area earmarked for the project, 40% (648 hectares) is to be set aside “exclusively for open spaces, parks, and green zones. BCDA is to further deploy a surface water harvesting system to store rainwater rather than extract groundwater. This initial facility will supply up to 120 million liters per day — a volume well above the project’s estimated daily demand of 65 to 90 million liters — that may offer a potential surplus water to nearby local communities. All of the project’s components will secure Environmental Compliance Certificates (ECCs) and adhere to strict oversight from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). The project is not to displace indigenous communities so much so that Pax Silica will be located within the public land titled to BCDA under its 1992 Charter. The indigenous communities living in Bamban, Porac, and Floridablanca have over 15,000 hectares dedicated for them in the Clark Special Economic Zone. Pax Silica is also supposedly to be a purely commercial initiative and will not host defense-related activities or on-site mining operations but would consume 3 gigawatts of electricity at full capacity. According to BCDA, the power will be mostly supplied by embedded power plants installed inside New Clark City, composed of solar and LNG sources. (READ: Why Energy Secretary Garin says Pax Silica is ‘too dangerous’ to plug into grid) The industries to be hosted are infrastructure, renewable energy power production, surface water harvesting system with water recycling facilities, digital communication infrastructure, logistics infrastructure connecting New Clark City to Clark International Airport and Subic, AI-native manufacturing supply chain, critical mineral processing, semiconductor manufacturing, manufacturing for automotive and consumer electronics, and AI data centers. Tayco aptly provided the proper perspective on the state of the project and how to shift through the various issues attached to it. What became clear is that the government agencies involved in the project still have to show concrete project plans tying up the key components of the planned industries seamlessly as it should in resolving all the contentious problems. To reiterate, the government agencies still have no demonstrable proof of viability on the vital issues concerning the implementation of the planned project. They have yet to give proof that the indigenous peoples in the surrounding areas will not be impacted but would actually benefit economically from Pax Silica. They still have to show proof of the sustainability of the water management program claimed together with the evidence that the embedded power system will not impact the supply and price of electricity in the surrounding areas. Finally, the government agencies tasked for the project still have no demonstrable proof showing the economic benefits to be generated by the industries that will be located in the Pax Silica property. (READ: [The Wide Shot] Why Pax Silica concerns people of faith) In other words, the government has so far not made conclusive steps to warrant the start of the project. What’s at stake for the Philippines First and foremost, Pax Silica gives the Philippines a historic opportunity to transcend its legacy role as a low-margin microchip testing outpost and establish itself as a front-end technology sovereign. Due to its strategic geography and geopolitical alignment, too, Pax Silica was handed down to the Philippines with all the opportunities that it could offer to secure its economic future. These were recognized in the President’s 2026 State of the Nation Address when he mentioned that Pax Silica comes with various economic benefits, foremost of which is “the generation of quality jobs to the people, accelerating the country’s industrial competitiveness, and revitalizing the Philippine economy.” Pax Silica was also recognized as a strategic component of the Luzon Economic Development program which was forged as the multilateral infrastructure and economic development project connecting the key economic growth centers of Subic Bay, Clark, Metro Manila, and Batangas. Likewise, Pax Silica is seen as a means of reducing the country’s dependence on China with whom the Philippines continues to have contentious relations with regard to maritime claims and territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea — a situation that is anticipated to escalate further in the future and imperil the Philippines’ economic growth and stability. In the meantime, across Southeast Asia, a frantic grab for this opportunity is already occurring: Malaysia is leveraging its pre-existing ecosystem in Penang, backed by a US$5.3 billion state fund, to transition into advanced logic chip design. Vietnam is weaponizing 37-year preferential tax rates and absorbing land fees to capture hyper-scale factories. Simultaneously, Thailand’s Siam Silica program is deploying a unified, single-board regulatory framework alongside a 200-billion-baht subsidy pool to build a domestic semiconductor foundation by 2030. The Philippines’ current geopolitical leverage is also subject to rapid obsolescence in the face of shifting economic and geopolitical conditions. Pax Silica cannot be treated as a leisurely long-term development masterplan. It must lock in binding corporate commitments, sign multilateral joint ventures, and physically break ground while it possesses maximum geopolitical value to its Western allies. As Tolentino recalls, he was then a senior researcher for the Congressional Commission on Science, Technology, and Engineering (COMSTE) when the Philippines, with its bureaucratic pace and policy choice, was left behind by Taiwan in the global chip race in 2009. As the title of this column says, with the government’s slow pace and indecisiveness, there is a clear and present danger that “Pax Silica could be again the proverbial fish that got away if the Philippines does not get its act together soon.” – Rappler.com A veteran stocks columnist, Den Somera is a licensed stockbroker and founder of the Monday Circle Financial Forum. You may reach him at densomera@yahoo.com