One last monsoon surge coming: Rains to return from this date

India may see one final burst of monsoon rain across several regions between September 12 and 21. The spell could briefly aid crops before the southwest monsoon retreat gathers pace.A rainbow arches over India Gate following rain, in New Delhi. (Photo: PTI)India could witness one final surge of monsoon activity before the southwest monsoon begins its seasonal retreat, with rains expected to return across large parts of Central, South, East and West India between September 12 and 21.Weather models indicate that the coming spell could provide a temporary revival to the fading monsoon circulation, bringing showers and thunderstorms to several parts of the country during the second half of September.The latest satellite imagery from India's INSAT-3DS satellite shows a noticeable reduction in cloud cover over large parts of the Indian subcontinent, particularly over northwest India, while convective cloud clusters remain active over eastern and southern regions. The expected rain surge could prove significant as India heads towards the final weeks of the four-month southwest monsoon season, which officially runs from June to September.However, the revival may not be enough to significantly alter the overall picture of the 2026 monsoon. India's seasonal rainfall deficit currently stands at around 14 per cent below normal, following an uneven monsoon marked by prolonged dry spells and sharp regional variations in rainfall. The India Meteorological Department has also forecast below-normal rainfall for the monsoon season, while the strengthening El Nio has emerged as a major factor influencing the weakening circulation.According to model projections, the monsoon withdrawal process could accelerate after the expected spell, particularly over northwest and central India.The retreat of the southwest monsoon normally begins from northwest India before gradually progressing southwards and eastwards across the country.The upcoming rainfall activity could therefore represent one of the final widespread monsoon pulses of the season.For farmers, the timing of the rains will be crucial. September precipitation remains important for maintaining soil moisture and supporting crops during critical growth stages, especially after an erratic monsoon season. A weak September could further affect agricultural output in rain-fed regions.While the final surge may bring temporary relief, the broader monsoon system continues to weaken, with little indication of a sustained recovery before its eventual withdrawal.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Sep 8, 2026 18:59 IST