On election eve, Michigan puts Democratic divide back in the spotlight

Mount Clemens, Mich. | Nov. 02, 2026, 5:00 a.m. ET | 6 min read As a consequential and unpredictable midterm election season races to a close, all eyes are on Michigan.Not only could this hotly contested state determine control of the U.S. Senate, but it’s also ground zero for an ideological tug-of-war within the Democratic Party – the outcome of which may shape the presidential campaign in 2028.Over the weekend, the state’s bitter Democratic primary contest reignited in dramatic fashion, when Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s former rival, Rep. Haley Stevens, withdrew her support for him and endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican in the race. “Abdul made it very clear I was not welcome in his campaign,” Representative Stevens said Sunday. It remains to be seen whether the move, which provoked outrage from Democratic leaders within the state and nationally, will do much to sway the outcome of the race. Dr. El-Sayed himself brushed it off, telling reporters, “I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens.” Later on Sunday, his campaign said it had raised $1.2 million in just four hours. Jose Juarez/APMichigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers (right) and Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens attend a service at Perfecting Church, Nov. 1, 2026, in Detroit. Ms. Stevens provoked a sharp response from Democrats when she endorsed Mr. Rogers. But the intraparty feud, sparked by disagreements over Israel, has underscored the depth of the divide between mainstream Democrats and progressives over the future direction of the party.Dr. El-Sayed’s liberal policy positions and edgy, combative style of politics stand in sharp contrast to the more moderate Democratic candidates who’ve been showcasing a bipartisan approach in red states this cycle. Should he wind up winning comfortably on Tuesday, it will bolster progressives’ case that they can both energize the party’s base and appeal to swing voters, paving the way for a possible 2028 presidential run by someone like New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.If the Michigan race devolves into a nail-biter, however – or if Democrats actually lose this seat, which is currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters – the recriminations are likely to be severe. Most polls have shown Dr. El-Sayed with a lead, but not much further ahead than candidates running in far less Democratic states like Texas and Kansas. “Every single Democrat in the state of Michigan, voting for El-Sayed or voting against him [during the primary], thought, ‘Well, I kind of agree with him on all this stuff, but are we going to be able to pull him across the finish line?’” says Mark Grebner, a Michigan Democratic strategist. “And that’s still the question.”Battleground MichiganMichigan has had two Democratic senators for the past 25 years. But it’s been a swing state in recent presidential elections, as working-class voters here went for Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and back to Mr. Trump again in 2024. As one of the first states slated to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in 2028, it’s likely to be a key proving ground. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersFormer Rep. Mike Rogers, Michigan's Republican Senate nominee, shakes hands with President Donald Trump during a rally at an entertainment complex in Port Huron, Michigan, Oct. 25, 2026. This cycle, Democrats have the wind at their backs, thanks to a deeply unpopular president whose tariff policies have hit this state, which relies on trade with Canada, particularly hard. Fuel costs, driven up by the war in Iran, have risen again just in the past week. And healthcare costs, already out of reach for many voters, are set to rise significantly next year in Michigan because of Republican cuts to Medicaid.“The old guard – it just needs to go away. It’s not working,” says Mary Benson, an independent voter who plans to vote for Dr. El-Sayed, outside a campaign event in Mount Clemens, where more than 100 people gathered in an art gallery.“Democrats, Republicans, it’s [two sides of] the same coin,” agrees Elaina Benson, Mary’s daughter, who’s wearing pins for Dr. El-Sayed and Sen. Bernie Sanders. She says she’s tired of politicians “pretending to fight for you but not actually fighting for you.”With his sparring debate style and swagger, Dr. El-Sayed comes across to supporters as the kind of fighter many voters say they are hungry for. He mocks Mr. Trump and GOP officials with jokes met with jeers. “What’s his name, JV Dance?” he said at a late October rally. “JV’s got zero charisma.”To boisterous crowds at his events, he vows to ban corporate money from politics, work to pass “Medicare for All,” and address the cost of living. He promises sweeping changes to what he calls a broken system that benefits the wealthy and keeps working people down. “He actually cares about people who are in our middle class,” says Anyanna Gibbs, a bartender who already cast a ballot for Dr. El-Sayed, although she doesn’t normally vote. Tiawan Griffith, who came to the event with Ms. Gibbs, also voted for Dr. El-Sayed, and it was his first time voting in any election.Although he says he’s a capitalist and not a democratic socialist, Dr. El-Sayed often sounds like many of the candidates affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America this cycle, and he has been endorsed by Senator Sanders and Representative Ocasio-Cortez, both of whom recently gave him $1 million each. Rebecca Cook/ReutersDemocratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders join hands at a "Students vs. Billionaires" town hall in Ann Arbor, Michigan, Oct. 26, 2026. Republican attacks have framed him as radical, both politically and personally.“He is the most extreme, dangerous candidate to ever run for the United States Senate in the history of our country,” said Mr. Rogers at an October rally. “He is lying about his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.” At the same rally, President Trump called Dr. El-Sayed a “jihadist.”Dr. El-Sayed, who is Muslim and says he holds no connection to the Muslim Brotherhood, disavowed the group in one viral exchange, turning the question back on his interlocutor to challenge the premise as implicitly racist.“My name and my faith aren’t the reason you can’t afford your gas. Not the reason you can’t afford your groceries. They’re not the reason you can’t see a doctor,” said Dr. El-Sayed at his Mount Clemens event.Divisions over IsraelAid to Israel has become one of the most divisive issues within the Democratic Party. In 2024, Kamala Harris lost Michigan in part because she lost many Muslim and Arab voters over the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza. But Michigan also has a sizable Jewish population, many of whom support Israel. Dr. El-Sayed has called for an end to U.S. aid to Israel and questioned whether Israel should exist as a Jewish state. After the primary, Ms. Stevens, a strong supporter of Israel, initially endorsed him. But tensions between the two continued to simmer. In recent days, she demanded he denounce a satiric ad showing a couple buying groceries and saying they can’t pay for eggs because they need to set the money aside for Israel.Dr. El-Sayed and Ms. Stevens were supposed to attend a unity event together on Sunday before the election, but Ms. Stevens wound up attending church with Mr. Rogers and endorsing him instead.It’s worth noting that progressives nationally have had a mixed record at the ballot box, says Rachel Blum, a political scientist at the University of Oklahoma.“We’ve had kind of inconsistent results with progressives in statewide races, and even primaries, in this cycle,” says Professor Blum.For that reason, even if Dr. El-Sayed wins in Michigan, she says, a full, leftward transformation of the Democratic Party seems unlikely. That’s particularly true if more moderate Democrats pull off big wins in red states like Kansas and Iowa on Tuesday night. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. As for Dr. El-Sayed’s smashmouth style of politics, some candidates may choose to imitate it, but some may not, says Theda Skocpol, a political scientist at Harvard University. Some voters may see his speaking style as arrogant, she says.Still, she adds, “there’s no question that Democrats want fighters.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. 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