Oil Near $100 Puts Fed and Peers in Interest-Rate Spotlight

Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.HomePMN BusinessOil Near $100 Puts Fed and Peers in Interest-Rate SpotlightFrom Washington to London to Tokyo, central bankers are set to reveal just how worried they are about a return of oil to about $100 a barrel.Author of the article: You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.ezi1is2wj4(ro)2}x)pf{o5y_media_dl_7.png Colombia's central bank, nationa(Bloomberg) — From Washington to London to Tokyo, central bankers are set to reveal just how worried they are about a return of oil to about $100 a barrel.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountThree days of Group of Seven rate decisions, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by peers at the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, may show varying degrees of vigilance at the prospect of more energy-driven inflation, even if none is predicted to act on that for now. Together with the European Central Bank’s signal of its readiness to hike interest rates again, investor bets point to possible moves as soon as September within much of that club, even if economists are less sure. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againCrude oil’s brief foray above the $100 level it last exceeded two months ago is just one of the potential inflation risks confronting policymakers.Aside from gains in other energy categories such as gas, investors are honing in on the implications of massive investment in artificial intelligence, as well as US President Donald Trump’s bid to rebuild a wall of tariffs after setbacks at the Supreme Court. Global bond markets point to some alarm among investors, with yields having jumped across the G7. On Friday, the US 30-year yield was just below its highest since 2007. Other ripples from the renewed cost-of-living hit may be seen in central bank decisions around the world, with more than a dozen scheduled for the coming week. Elsewhere, euro-zone growth and inflation numbers, Tokyo consumer prices, and South Korean exports will be among the highlights.Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.The Fed’s July 29 rate decision is approaching with more suspense than many anticipated after June consumer price data in the US came in much cooler than expected. That’s been overtaken, however, by renewed hostilities in the Middle East.The resulting surge in oil prices has boosted expectations for dissent from some officials — possibly Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack — who favor a rate increase now. It’s also sparked widespread discussion over whether new Chairman Kevin Warsh might surprise investors with a hike.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We expect a hawkish hold. Warsh is likely to stress that inflation remains too high and keep a September hike in play, but the soft CPI data should be enough to prevent action this month.”—Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher and Eliza Winger. For full analysis, click hereOn Thursday, a day after the decision, investors and policymakers will get an updated look at the state of economic activity, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and consumer spending.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Government data is projected to show gross domestic product rose at an annualized 2.1% pace in the second quarter, fueled by consumers and business investment. A separate report is forecast to show a key inflation measure slowed in June amid lower gasoline prices that have since turned higher.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the USIt’s another busy week for the Asia-Pacific region, with several important monetary policy decisions and trade releases.First up is a rate decision from Singapore’s central bank, a chance to dust of your protractors so you can check the slope of the currency band which is their policy tool. Pakistan’s central bank will also announce its policy rate.Friday morning brings a data dump from Japan, with industrial output, retail sales and jobless data for June as well as inflation in Tokyo for July.The latter figure is a leading indicator for the nation and should give some guidance about what the Bank of Japan will decide later the same day. Taiwan will also announce second-quarter GDP on Friday. Earlier in the week Australia reports June consumer inflation, and on Thursday Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter is scheduled to speak. That comes after June data showed the labor market still going strong, upping expectations for more rate hikes.It’s a big week for trade data, with South Korea releasing its July trade stats on Saturday. Before that comes June figures for Hong Kong, the Philippines, and Thailand. Asian countries including South Korea have been reporting record export numbers almost every month due to the soaring AI trade, and July looks like it will be more of the same, with foreign shipments up more than 50% on year in the first 20 days of July.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for AsiaEurope, Middle East, AfricaOfficials in the euro zone will get an initial batch of data to help them gauge if they should deliver another rate hike. GDP likely rebounded with a 0.2% increase in the second quarter, while inflation picked up to 2.9% in July, according to the median forecasts of economists. Those numbers are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.Belgium and Ireland kick off the release of growth data on Wednesday. Other national numbers the following day may show a 0.1% increase in Germany, a return to expansion in France, stagnation in Italy, and continued robust momentum in Spain. The reports are likely to confirm the backdrop that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pointed to in her remarks on Thursday, with the economy showing “some improvement” and an inflation shock from the Iran war “yet to play out.”Germany’s Ifo survey may draw scrutiny too. Aside from pointing to the ongoing impact of the Iran conflict, the business index, due on Monday, may reveal if economic reforms unveiled in Berlin have buoyed sentiment at all. Aside from further policy announcements from new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the UK highlight is likely to be the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. While no change is anticipated, a minority faction voting to hike borrowing costs is also likely.Some other monetary decisions are on the schedule around the region: After pausing its easing cycle in March, Mozambique is expected to raise borrowing costs on Wednesday as surging inflation, foreign-exchange shortages and fiscal pressures intensify.A day later, Malawi, which faces many of the same challenges, is expected to leave its rate unchanged at 24%.In Ukraine on Thursday, policymakers are predicted to stay on hold as well. The rate there has been at 15% since January.Separately, the South African Reserve Bank will hold its annual general meeting on Friday. Governor Lesetja Kganyago may shed more light on why the central bank decided to keep borrowing costs steady on Thursday, and what its concerns are going forward.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEACentral bankers in Chile are widely expected to keep their key rate unchanged at 4.5% for a fifth straight meeting, as slack demand and tepid growth are getting the better of slightly over-target inflation.Economists and traders surveyed by the bank see a hold this time around, although the rapidly intensifying Iran war has sent one- and two-year swaps higher. Brazil watchers may pay a bit more attention than usual to the central bank’s weekly Focus survey after the previous release showed 2026 inflation expectations had dipped while those for 2028 all but jumped. At the same time, average forecasts for 2029 and 2030 drifted higher.With Banco Central do Brasil’s market readout in the books, next up is the mid-July inflation report. Most analysts see the surprise slowing in June’s full-month print — to 4.64% — as a head fake, with higher figures likely in the months ahead.The focus in Mexico will be on the flash reading of April-June output, which slumped to a -0.6% quarter-on-quarter print in the three months through March.Latam’s No. 2 economy likely rebounded as disinflation and lower interest rates buoyed domestic demand, holding up against the drag from US tariffs and Trump’s mercurial trade policies — which are also dragging on investment.In Colombia, the central bank closes out the week and month with its monetary policy meeting.While many observers see June’s win by Abelardo de la Espriella in the presidential runoff election as a major plus for the central bank and monetary policy, BanRep still faces a challenge in taming consumer price increases.Annual inflation has accelerated in five of the last six months and year-end expectations have pushed up over 6.6% — the central bank targets 3% — making a half-point hike to 12.5% the early consensus.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America—With assistance from Brian Fowler, Erik Hertzberg, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans, Christopher Condon and Reade Pickert.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.