Oil & Gas Index Leads Stock Market With 133.94% YtD Return

Kayode Tokede The Oil & Gas Index maintained its position as the best performing indicator on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), gaining 133.94 per cent Year-till-Date (YtD) to outperform the bourse’s major index as of September 30, 2026. The NGX Oil & Gas index nearly doubled the overall NGX All Share Index, which closed the period under review at 61.43per cent YtD. The performance of the NGX Oil & Gas Index, which tracks listed upstream, downstream, and integrated energy companies on the Exchange is driven by a mix of stock-specific rallies, oil market fundamentals, policy reforms, and macro/foreign exchange dynamics. On the external factor, the ongoing US–Israel military campaign against Iran, which began February 2026, and resulted in disruption to maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices, strengthened safe-haven demand for the US dollar, and tightened global financial conditions. These developments are already transmitting to emerging and frontier markets, including key African economies, through higher energy costs, currency pressures, and shifting investor sentiment. According to analysts at Cordros Research, “Looking ahead, we believe the magnitude of the economic impact will largely depend on the duration and scale of the conflict. Our baseline scenario assumes a contained military campaign, with coalition forces maintaining air superiority and focusing on degrading Iran’s military infrastructure while avoiding a large-scale ground invasion. “While recent operations aimed at securing maritime routes, including naval surveillance, mine-clearing activities, and targeted strikes on Iranian naval assets, may gradually reduce risks to shipping, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain subject to elevated security conditions and higher insurance costs in the near term.” The analysts added, ““As a result, energy markets are expected to remain tight in the short run, keeping oil prices elevated around $90.00/barrel in the near term before moderating toward $70.00–75.00/barrel in the second half of 2026 as security conditions improve and global supply begins to outpace demand.” So far in 2026, the five out of the seven stocks on NGX Oil & Gas have seen upward momentum that has influenced the index growth. For instance, the stock price of Seplat Energy Plc that opened this year for trading at N5,809.00 per share, gained 175.44 per cent YtD to close September 30, 2026 at N16,000.10 per share.The latest rally has pushed the energy company’s shares to a highest level recorded on the NGX, as investors continue to drive demand for the stock. Seplat’s latest price surge extends a rally that has significantly lifted the stock’s value since the beginning of 2026. On September 17, it was reported that Seplat’s shares had climbed to a new record level on the NGX, rising by 10 per cent in 10 days from N13,552.60 to N14,907.80. The latest gain of N1,092.20 lifted the stock by 7.33per cent during the September 24 trading session. For Aradel Holdings Plc, its stock price has gained 128.36 per cent YtD to N1,530 per share as of September 30, 2026 from N670 per share it opened for trading this year. The stock price of Conoil Plc, Eterna Plc and Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc gained 12.18 per cent, 54.39 per cent and 25.54 per cent, YtD respectively. Meanwhile, the stop price of Totalenergies Marketing Nigeria Plc dropped by 19 per cent to close September 30, 2026 at N518.4 per share, while Oando depreciated by 12.94 per cent to close at N35.00 per share as of September 30, 2026. NGX data revealed that Industrial Goods Index came close at 83.92 per cent YtD growth, followed by NGX Banking Index that closed September 30, 2026 at 78.92 per cent. According to data obtained by THISDAY, the NGX Insurance Index at -8.6per cent YtD to 1,087.10 basis points as of September 30, 2026 is the only index on the NGX with negative performance. The slide in Insurance Index may have been caused by a negative investor response to the operators’ poor earnings amid recapitalisation concerns. This poor performance marks a sharp reversal of a positive two-year trend. In 2024, the insurance index delivered a return of 107.74 per cent, making it the second-best performing sector after oil and gas, which gained 159.81 per cent. Operators attributed the sector’s underperformance to investor concerns over fears of share dilution from weak earnings growth among some operators and sustained profit-taking because of the strong rally recorded in the previous two years. They noted that many investors are taking a cautious position after the sector’s recapitalisation exercise, with uncertainty over mergers, acquisitions and fresh equity issues impacting negatively on investors’ sentiment. Commenting, the Vice President, Highcap Securities Limited, Mr. David Adnori, said the performance of the NGX Oil & Gas index is propelled in recent reforms in the oil & gas sector and impressive corporate earnings “The NGX Oil & Gas Index as the best performing index has to do with listed companies not with the industry itself. Investors’ confidence in Seplat Energy and Aradel Holdings has sustained its impressive index ,” he said.