Obama had the Tea Party. Trump has ‘No Kings.’ You know how this story ends

In January 2009, then-President Barack Obama had no sooner assumed office after handily defeating the Republican nominee, John McCain, when opposition to his overreaching agenda galvanized a center-right movement. At the suggestion of CNBC editor Rick Santelli, whose live, on-air rant of Feb. 19 of that year perfectly captured the spirit of the opposition, the modern-day Tea Party was formed.Initially, the Tea Party was ridiculed by Democrats and ignored by the media — despite its large, nationwide Tax Day Tea Parties. It wasn’t until GOP and Tea Party-endorsed candidate Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s former U.S. Senate seat in a special election held Jan. 19, 2010, in liberal Massachusetts, that anyone really started taking the Tea Party seriously.Turning the page to 2025, one notices a comparable situation. President Donald Trump, who fell short of a 50% majority in a basically two-person race against Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, defeating her by 49.91% to 48.43% in the popular vote, assumed the office of the presidency falsely claiming to have won it in a landslide. BELTWAY CONFIDENTIAL — OBAMA IS ‘TIRED OF BEING DIVIDED’: POT, MEET KETTLEFrom there, his overreaching agenda and far too numerous and outlandish executive orders led to the birth of the progressive “No Kings” movement — which was quickly dismissed by Trump and the GOP despite its initial, massive, nationwide rallies. But it wasn’t until Democrats started to win a disproportionate share of special elections nationwide, even in red states like Florida, that the No Kings movement also gained respect.And the parallels between the Tea Party and No Kings movements don’t end there — far outweighing their differences. Both claimed to be mostly volunteer, leaderless, decentralized movements committed to nonviolence. Though Santelli called for the Tea Party’s formation, he refused to lead it. And just like the Tea Party, No Kings has state, regional, and local leaders who help organize mass rallies.To boot, the Tea Party had help from established national groups including FreedomWorks and Club for Growth, while No Kings is supported by MoveOn, Third Act, and the American Civil Liberties Union. Both announced clear-cut agendas that, oddly enough, shared opposition to overreaching executive power — whether it be from Obama or Trump. And a quick look at the respective presidential job approval numbers of both men — Obama in October 2010 and Trump in October 2026 — reveals both were underwater.No doubt, the Tea Party’s greatest impact occurred during the 2010 midterm elections when it reached the peak of its political influence. It helped flip 63 House seats, six Senate seats, six governorships, and a record-breaking 680 state legislative seats. It might have flipped two additional Senate seats had more moderate candidates prevailed in the Delaware and Nevada GOP primaries. But even had they flipped those seats, Democrats would have kept control of the Senate by a 51-49 margin.All of this sounds eerily familiar. The No Kings movement, too, went a bit adrift in two key Democratic Senate 2026 primary battles held in Maine and Michigan, as well as some congressional primaries around the country — nominating socialists and controversial candidates when their more moderate and experienced counterparts would probably have had an easier, less costly path to victory.OPINION: VOTE LIKE AMERICA’S FUTURE IS ON THE BALLOT. BECAUSE IT ISWhile this may keep the number of flipped seats lower than the Tea Party midterm elections of 2010, it seems more likely than not that the No Kings movement will help Democrats win back both the House and Senate come November.But there is a major caveat. Keep your eyes on Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). If the Democrats flip just four Senate seats, there are glaring signs Fetterman may join the GOP, enabling Republicans to maintain control of the upper chamber. However, given the current climate, it appears the Democrats will flip at least five seats to win Senate control. And, if so, the No Kings movement will have matched, or even surpassed, the Tea Party’s 2010 success.Don Adams is a founder of the tri-state region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware) Independence Hall Tea Party (2009-2014) and former president of its political action committee. He has worked on numerous Republican political campaigns and public affairs projects.