Nuclear Autumn

The French have a nice expression – the beast is very nasty, if attacked, it will fight back. Something of the sort seems to be the guiding principle of Putin’s recent strategy in the Ukrainian war. Now that the Ukrainians have displayed the unforgivable gall of bringing the war home to Russia and the Russians, Moscow’s attacks on Kyiv have grown fiercer and wilder. Ukraine seeks to damage Russian infrastructure; Russia seeks primarily to inflict human suffering to break the will of Ukraine.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. As of early July 2026, Russia cannot be said to be winning the war even though it is making small daily advances – estimates vary from place to place but average out at around a hundred yards. The Russians are paying for that land at a casualty rate 8 times that of the Ukrainians. Putin is under pressure from the vocal militarist right and the still silent majority now suffering from gas shortages, internet blockages, and airport closures. He will face an autumn of crisis if he does not deliver some major breakthrough by the end of summer. Jingoist bloggers and retired army colonels are already calling quite unselfconsciously for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to put a quick, victorious end to the war. This may be little more than nuclear saber rattling, but Putin knows such a victory would win him the place in Russia’s history that he believes should be his – the Restorer of Empire - and he is also well aware that Harry Truman has not gone down as a figure reviled for Hiroshima. Other Topics of Interest A Test of Endurance Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure are testing Moscow’s own capacity for endurance. If Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon, how would he go about it, and how would the West react? The questions are as obvious as their answers are opaque. Putin could select a city and then à la Israel give the residents sufficient time to flee. Very few people would be killed or injured and, intent having been demonstrated, the extortion could begin. The city could also be chosen for its historic significance like Poltava (assuming the area in Russian possession) where Peter the Great defeated King Charles XII of Sweden which made Russia a European power for the first time and one to be feared. But more likely the place would be chosen for other, more practical reasons: location, relative safety. What would NATO and the US do militarily? Nothing. Trump has said he doesn’t care about Ukraine and has proved it with actions, while the Europeans are still insufficiently united and prepared to engage in hostilities with Russia. That only leaves the Ukrainians, those nasty beasts. Reprinted from the author’s newsletter blog The Russian Front. See the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. , The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.