Nottingham Forest’s January transfer plans – and two reasons Glasner is safe

This time last year, Nottingham Forest’s players were being confronted by new voices and training methods for the third time in a season – just eight games into their Premier League campaign. None of Nuno Espírito Santo, Ange Postecoglou or Sean Dyche would last the season. Twelve months on, Forest are 18th with six points and one win. Their home record is worse: one win in 16 league games. Their next two home games? Manchester City and Chelsea. But something feels different. There is no panic. No noise. The club that got through four managers last season say the mood is good and believes the results will come. That faith rests on two things: data suggesting Forest have played well and been unlucky, and a plan led by chief football officer George Syrianos, empowered by a series of promotions and the departures of senior figures Ross Wilson and Edu. The best is yet to come The numbers are striking. Opta has Forest fourth in its “expected” Premier League table, suggesting Oliver Glasner’s side should have 14 points – eight more than they do. It matches the eye test. In eight league games there is no obvious example of Forest being outclassed, and they have regularly looked the more threatening side. The 3-1 defeat at Palace, where they should have been out of sight by half-time, was the most extreme example. Last time out, Forest drew 1-1 at Ipswich despite creating far more chances than the home side. Lax finishing and an uncharacteristic mistake from Nikola Milenkovic cost them – their season in microcosm. Morgan Gibbs-White called the finishing “not good enough” but said he was “proud” of the performances and that wins would “surely” come.Nottingham Forest haven’t got the points their performances have deserved (Photo: Reuters) According to Understat, of the 25 teams to sustain xG numbers like Forest’s over a full season, none finished outside the top four and ten won the title. Sceptics will argue that eight games is a small sample, that poor finishing may be a flaw in the squad rather than bad luck, that Glasner’s Palace side also underperformed their data, and that performances could fall away if results don’t follow soon. Inside the club, though, the numbers are read as a sign of things to come. Above all, it is the plan dictating the calm. Syrianos – a Bavarian-born former Stuttgart data analyst who rarely speaks publicly – laid out that thinking to a small group of supporters’ representatives recently. He was emphatic: he would stand by Glasner even if Forest were relegated. He confirmed Forest had followed Glasner for several years – the club chose Nuno over the Austrian in December 2023 – and showcased an in-house statistical model rating him the third-best manager in the Premier League, capable of drawing overperformance from a squad Forest rate around 10th to 12th best in the division. Forest’s transfer strategy Recruitment is focused on young players from South America and Europe’s top leagues, and English talent from clubs squeezed by the Premier League’s financial rules. That equation brought Elliot Anderson from Newcastle to Forest for £35m in 2024 – effectively much less, with the unwanted Odysseas Vlachodimos (valued at around £20m) going the other way – before he was sold to Manchester City this summer for a then-British record fee. Read more Tim Rich – Liverpool give Chelsea a painful reminder of their new place in the world Kat Lucas – How Pierre Sage is fighting for his Crystal Palace job Forest tried to repeat the trick with Everton’s Harrison Armstrong in the summer, and a deal was close until news of it leaked, provoking an angry response from Everton players, supporters and former stars. Forest’s recruitment staff were deeply disappointed and believe Armstrong is likely to join a Champions League side in the coming windows. Glasner has said he is happy with his squad and rejected Marinakis’ offers of more signings, but Forest still want another midfielder after missing out on Armstrong and Spurs’ Lucas Bergvall. Interest in Bergvall could be revived if a deal becomes possible, and a third name remains on the shortlist. A goalkeeper to challenge Matz Sels is also possible. But after a summer 2025 window in which they believe they did too much, only players who clearly improve the squad will be considered.