Not every incident is Russian sabotage. But it suits the defence sector to say so

On 1 September, the German government officially blamed Russia for an incident at Leipzig airport several weeks earlier. The alleged sabotage attempt involved three drones, one of which was found carrying explosives but apparently failed to explode due to a faulty detonator. The incident once again reignited the debate over Russian sabotage in Europe. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the attack marked “a new escalation on European soil, directly attributed to Russia, but it is part of a broader pattern of increasingly dangerous incidents.” Russia denied involvement in the Leipzig incident. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has previously called the claims of a Russian sabotage campaign in Europe “empty and ephemeral.” In late 2025, the Associated Press counted 145 sabotage attacks, including explosions, fires, drone incursions, and cut undersea cables. A confidential report of the German police even showed 321 suspected cases of sabotage were registered in the year 2025 alone. “This is the new normal,” von der Leyen said, stating that Europe’s infrastructure had become “frontline targets” that must be protected accordingly. Sabotage allegations have driven increases in defence budget allocations, including a €250m European Commission package for “drone and counter-drone capabilities.” In the summer of 2026, Nato countries pledged $40bn [€34.4bn] for the same. 'The evidence is clear' When German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt officially blamed Russia for the Leipzig drone incident, he implemented a “naming-and-shaming” strategy that European leaders devised as a response to Russian sabotage. Dobrindt stated that the means, including the drone configuration and components, were consistent with “the known pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe.” Intelligence sources, Dobrindt added, substantiated this conclusion. “The evidence is clear,” observed Nato chief Mark Rutte. “And I welcome the measures announced by Germany in response” which included the closing of the Russian consulate in Bonn and a Russian cultural centre in Berlin. But German political parties on the left and right have questioned the lack of evidence presented when the Berlin government made its allegation. “The German government now maintains that the modus operandi, as well as police and intelligence findings, point to Russia as the perpetrator,” Johannes Varwick, professor for international relations and European politics at Halle-Wittenberg University told EUobserver. “That may be plausible, but there is evidently no proof – at least none that has been made public, not even in qualified or indirect terms,” Varwick said. Drone panic The lack of evidence provided in the Leipzig incident recalls the European drone panic in late 2025. Between September and November that year, drone sightings halted airport operations across Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, and Germany. European leaders, like Germany’s Merz, blamed Russia for the drones. Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen and von der Leyen called it a “hybrid war.” The Danish justice minister even compared the situation to 9/11. The crisis came at a time when European leaders were locked in intense debate over Europe’s common defence policy. US president Donald Trump had put a (temporary) stop to military shipments to Ukraine, welcomed Vladimir Putin for a summit in Alaska, all the while making threats about invading Greenland. European leaders meanwhile sought political unity on a plan to confiscate and hand over frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, which finally failed due to Belgium's opposition - home of Euroclear, a financial services company holding billions in immobilised Russian assets. When two trains derailed in Poland in November, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said the incidents bore the hallmarks of “state terrorism” by Russia. Against this backdrop, European countries were “planning how to hit back” at Russia using cyber attacks and organising surprise Nato exercises on Russia’s border. The chair of Nato’s military committee, admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, told the FT “the alliance was looking at far more muscular responses to Russian covert violence, including pre-emptive strikes as a deterrent.” Some stories fall apart But many of the spur-of-the-moment claims of Russian sabotage, made during the fall of 2025, did not stand up to scrutiny. Public outcry over the alleged GPS jamming by Russia of von der Leyen’s airplane over Bulgaria, which would have forced pilots to land using paper maps, dissipated as the story fell apart. The shutdown of Frankfurt airport was caused by a 41-year-old hobby pilot who wanted to “briefly test his newly acquired drone.” No evidence of a connection to Russia was found. In fact, an investigation by Dutch newspaper Trouw found that in nearly 60 other incidents there was “much panic and hardly any evidence.” Incidents in Poland, Romania and Moldova – all close to the border with Ukraine – were the exception.