No 10 insiders are discussing an early election. Here’s what’s really going on

After taking over as Labour prime minister from Tony Blair, Gordon Brown stood on the brink of a calling a snap election in September 2007. Within weeks, he had backed away. The move came to define his premiership. The Tories handed out stunt bottles of Newcastle Ale labelled “Bottler Brown”. Once a Labour big beast, with a reputation for strength and strategic skill, Brown never shook off the moniker. The lesson stuck with two members of Brown’s then Cabinet: Andy Burnham and James Purnell. Fast-forward nearly 20 years and Purnell is chief of staff in Burnham’s No 10. Now, they in turn are trying to shrug off the question of an early election which has crept up the news agenda since Burnham took over from Sir Keir Starmer in July. Shorts “We’re just trying to get rid of the speculation because what Brown let happen was it built up around him and he didn’t damp it down because he was testing to see whether he should or shouldn’t. And he looked weak when he didn’t,” a senior Labour source said. Efforts by Burnham to declare publicly he has no intention of going to the country seem to have little effect. A Labour bounce in the polls and investigations into Reform UK’s financial affairs have prompted chatter that the Prime Minister would seek his own mandate from the country to escape the fiscal straitjacket of the 2024 manifesto. Senior No 10 staffers have held private discussions about the level of polling support they would need to call an election. “They’ve had conversations about what would the parameters be in which they would make a decision, but I don’t think they’ve made a decision, and ultimately I don’t think they will,” according to one recent visitor to No 10. “Meanwhile, MPs seem to want to talk themselves into it.” Purnell has privately told Labour MPs there are no plans for an early election. Sceptics say – naturally -he wouldn’t tell gossipy parliamentarians. It is one thing to keep the party and country guessing, but there are constitutional niceties too. If he intended an election, Burnham would have to inform King Charles as head of state. Royal insiders made discreet inquiries about election rumours Sources told The i Paper outriders for the King were concerned enough by speculation that Burnham could go to the country as soon as December that they made discreet inquiries of senior Labour officials at the Goodwood Revival racing meeting in Sussex last weekend. Amid vintage cars, a Vespa rally and live jazz, an unofficial but clear message was passed to the Palace that Burnham has no plans to call an election. Speculation of an early poll, which had rumbled all summer, became turbo-charged when Reform received a record-breaking total of £72m in donations from two cryptocurrency billionaires within 48 hours this month. In Labour circles, arguments ranged from how to retrospectively designate the payments as illegal to whether Burnham should bite the bullet and go to the country as quickly as possible before Reform has time to spend the money. He must call an election by August 2029 at the latest. No 10 party for would-be Labour donors At a mid-September Downing Street rose garden reception for Labour donors, Cabinet ministers were out charming guests including former Autoglass boss Gary Lubner and Fran Perrin, daughter of Labour peer and scion of the supermarket dynasty David Sainsbury. Celebrity potter Grayson Perry, another donor, added a colourful note. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, stepped in to speak in Burnham’s place. The Prime Minister was not present, mourning his father, Roy, who had just died. “It was a thank you for what you have done and a thank you for what you’re about to do, or we’d like you to do,” according to a source close to one of the donors present. At the party, some erstwhile benefactors yet to contribute to Burnham’s refreshed Labour Party were asking for information about Joe Fortune, who was formally installed as Labour’s General Secretary last week after Burnham’s No 10 politely asked the other candidates to step aside over the summer. Raised in Liverpool by traditionally Labour family, Fortune is the genial, if plain talking, 6’5’’ backroom fixer who will eventually oversee the party’s general election planning. He’ll be aided by a recently appointed new head of fundraising. Until recently, the party had been struggling to fill the role, resorting to head-hunters to fill the position. ‘Unforgivably reckless’ to throw away Labour’s majority A large-scale seat by seat poll published by YouGov in recent days did nothing to diminish the chatter among Labour MPs. It put Labour as the largest party, with 241 seats. Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives would be in second place with 130 seats and Reform into third place with 123 seats. Crucially, this is short of an outright majority. However well he did, Burnham would win far fewer seats than Starmer. “It would be unforgivably reckless to throw it all away,” as one Cabinet minister put it. Reform’s in-fighting has also led to speculation Burnham could call a snap election. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in which Zack Polanski is running against Labour is another key test of whether Burnham can see off the Greens on his left flank. That’s led some to speculate the outcome may help focus the Prime Minister’s mind. Not true, according to one insider. “I understand why people are speculating because Reform have had some blows, and if we do finish off the Greens in the by-election, then that looks like material political progress,” the Labour insider said. “But when you think how fragmented things were in May, there are absolutely no internal reasons to think an election is imminent at all. Andy wouldn’t want to risk having taken three leadership contests over 15 years to get to be in a position where you’re throwing all caution to the wind.” “The party simply isn’t ready. We have only just elected Michael Marra as the new leader in Scotland, and in England, the party doesn’t reflect the organisational structures that stem from having stronger emphasis on the regional mayors. Constituency-level organising flows down from that,” another Labour source said. Little room for giveaways to boost popularity with voters And if Labour faithful are looking for more proof points that an election is in the offing, they will be disappointed at conference. Bound by the grim fiscal situation both Healey’s keynote address to delegates on Monday and Burnham’s on Tuesday will be light on populist giveaways. “Andy’s speech is going to be visionary and optimistic and have real content, but both the speech and the Budget would be peppered with retail short-term transactionalism, if that was where the thinking and planning is at [for an election], and it really isn’t that,” a Labour insider observed. And while the chatter about an early election seemingly won’t quieten down, some Labour insiders are phlegmatic. “I always think is a sign that we’re doing pretty well politically, so you have to take it on the chin,” remarked a party staffer. Downing Street declined to comment.