Nigel Farage v Count Binface: Reform leader set to win Clacton by-election, but risks ending up the loser

A gentle breeze was forecast for Clacton-on-Sea as voters go to the polls.Families on the beach in Clacton-on-Sea where a by-election is set to take place on August 13, after Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage resigned as the constituency's MPGettyThe breeze may keep temperatures down to 26C, rather than spiralling to heatwave heights, as Farage supporters seek to persuade voters to brave the global warming to go to polling stations.Some Reform campaigners were even encouraged to holiday in Clacton to boost Mr Farage’s field operations, with others diverted from the Greater Manchester mayoral contest to the Essex constituency.In total, there are 34 candidates for the Clacton poll, with the result expected to be announced possibly as late as 6am on Friday.Ian Davidson, chief executive of Tendring District Council, with the lengthy statement of persons nominated for the Clacton by-electionPA MediaHe has sought to portray the contest as a battle between himself and “the Establishment”, which is tricky, to say the least, when your opponent walks the streets with a bin on his head.So, Mr Farage needs to show that the voters of Clacton are firmly behind him, by turning out in large numbers.Reform sources believe he needs to get to within five, possibly ten, percentage points of a normal by-election turnout.At the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last spring, which Reform won, turnout was just over 46%.Conservative MP Sir David DavisPA WireMr Farage’s second hurdle, which may be the easier one given that there are no other major party candidates, is to get a huge majority.Polling expert and Tory peer Lord Hayward points to two comparables.Conservative MP David Davis resigned in 2008 as MP for Haltemprice and Howden, in the East Riding of Yorkshire, over the Labour government's plans to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days.In the following by-election on July 10 which both Labour and the Liberal Democrats did not contest, Mr Davis, now knighted, won with a majority of 15,355, or 72% of the vote.Read MoreThe second comparable is Douglas Carswell who defected from the Tories to UKIP in 2014 and stood down as MP for Clacton, seeking a return to Parliament at the subsequent by-election in October.He gained 21,113 votes, or 59.2%, with turnout being 64.2%.Both the Tories and Labour contested the by-election.Former MP Douglas CarswellGareth Fuller/PA WireLord Hayward believes these results set benchmarks for Mr Farage of around 70% of the vote and the backing of some 21,000 constituents.“He has to be at their level or above,” he said.“If he exceeds them he will be in a stronger position.“If the turnout is low, he has got to explain why it’s low.”Gawain Towler, a long-time Farage ally, believes the Reform leader’s decision to resign may be a “stroke of strategic genius”.But if he is found to have broken the rules for MPs he could face another by-election under the recall mechanism, if suspended from the Commons for at least ten days.Mr Towler’s argument is that by quitting as an MP, Mr Farage will make the prospect of a second by-election less likely.The punishment for erring MPs is decided by the Standards Committee which could decide to suspend Mr Farage, if found in breach of the rules, for just shy of ten days.Such a move would see him rapped but avoid a re-run of the current by-election which Mr Farage would no doubt also win easily.An intriguing theory which may be tested in coming months.But there are two other downsides to Mr Farage’s decision to quit.In a fascinating insight from Clacton, some Tory voters, though, are planning to switch to Mr Farage as they want a serious politician to be their MP rather than one of the other minor contenders.Second, the furore of the by-election has shone a greater spotlight on the financial affairs of Mr Farage and Reform.He has shrugged off controversies over many years.But he is not believed to have calculated that the other parties would not stand in Clacton.So, he may have misjudged matters.One day, he may even reflect that when he was considering quitting Parliament, it might have just been better to - bin the idea.