Nigel Farage v Count Binface: Reform leader faces 'trashing' unless he pulls off huge Clacton by-election win

Roll a round metal dustbin down a hill and it will gain momentum and create a hell of a racket.By ramping up his campaign to maximum volume, it could gain momentum and possibly persuade a significant number of normally Tory, Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat voters to back him.Families on the beach in Clacton-on-Sea where a by-election is set to take place on August 13, after Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage resigned as the constituency's MPGettyFirst, it’s difficult to find a hill in the largely flat Essex seaside resort of Clacton-on-Sea and rolling a metal dustbin down one, if it could be found, would clearly be unwise given the damage it could cause.But more significantly, enthusing people to take part in a by-election, which many think is unnecessary, in the middle of August is likely to be a struggle.Many voters will be away on holiday, though, some may already have cast their ballot by postal vote.However, this is not a normal by-election and which is why it is difficult for the Reform leader to emerge triumphant even if he wins by a comfortable margin. At the 2024 general election, Mr Farage gained 46.2% of the vote, as 21,225 Clacton constituency residents supported him, with Conservative Giles Watling in second place on 27.9%, or 12,820 votes.Count Binface and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage are among 34 candidates in the Clacton by-electionPA WireTheoretically, it is possible for Count Binface to scoop up a huge chunk of the anti-Farage vote and to win.But very few, if any, at Westminster expect this to happen.In fact, Mr Farage is likely to increase his vote share, on a low turnout, to considerably more than 50% of those casting a ballot in the by-election.But the benchmark for success in such a bizarre by-election is far higher than just over 50%, which is a level of support acheived by just five MPs at the 2024 general election.Read MoreThe closest recent comparable is the by-election triggered by senior Tory David Davis.He resigned as MP for Haltemprice and Howden, in the East Riding of Yorkshire, in 2008 over the Labour government's plans to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days.Conservative MP Sir David DavisPA WireIn the subsequent by-election on July 10 which Labour and the Lib Dems did not contest, Mr Davis, now knighted, won with a majority of 15,355, or 72% of the vote, up from 47.5% at the 2005 general election.He leads Count Binface by 73% to 20%, once undecideds are excluded, according to a Survation poll. If Mr Farage can push his vote share towards 75% or above, crucially outdoing Sir David, then he can use that to bolster his claim that he is engaged in a battle against “the Establishment”.But if the space warrior, who has published a 20-point manifesto, can gain closer to 25% of the vote or more, then the Reform leader will face even more questions over his decision to quit Parliament and trigger the by-election.