Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch and Zack Polanski's parties to hammer Labour with loss of up to 18 MPs in London, new poll shows

Andy Burnham faces a battle to stop Labour losing up to 18 MPs in London at the next general election, according to a new poll.The poll was carried out earlier this month and points to the new Prime Minister’s wave of optimism and new policies so far not yet lifting Labour’s fortunes in the capital. The Conservatives under leader Kemi Badenoch could gain eight parliamentary seats from Labour across a swathe of west, north and central London.Such a string of victories would reverse some of the 2024 election disaster for the Tories which left the party with zero MPs in Inner London.The survey also put Reform’s London mayoral contender Laila Cunningham in second place in voting intention for the 2028 contest for City Hall, on 20%, behind Labour on 33%, but ahead of the Tories on 18%.Conservative Party leader Kemi BadenochPA WireZack Polanski’s Greens might win four seats from Labour, mainly in Inner London, with independents possibly also gaining three.However, the margins of possible victories in many of these constituencies are so small that Labour may hold onto a significant chunk of them, according to the analysis by Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at QMUL.“Some seats in Hackney, Newham & Lewisham could flip to the Greens while the Conservatives would be hoping for gains in West London,” he said.Read More“Reform will be targeting seats in the outer boroughs of the East and Southeast.” Nigel Farage celebrating outside Havering town hall after winning control of the council at the May electionsGettyIt might also gain Orpington, Bromley and Biggin Hill, Hornchurch and Upminster,, as well as Old Bexley and Sidcup from the Tories.The Conservatives may regain Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as winning Brent West, all from Labour.The Greens could seize Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Lewisham North, and Stratford and Bow.Mr Polanski is expected to stand for election to Parliament in a London seat.Independents could win in Ilford North, where the sitting MP is Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, and in Ilford South, as well as in Bethnal Green and Stepney, the analysis suggests, though Labour could just as easily hold onto these seats.Jeremy Corbyn would retain Islington North.Green Party leader Zack PolanskiPA Wire* Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18+ online between 10th and 17th August 2026. Data are weighted.