NFL Week 6 upset alert: Can Titans beat TD-favorite Colts? Will rested Bucs upset Steelers?

These favorites are not only at risk of not covering, but they could lose outright in Week 6 Oct 15, 2026 at 7:20 am ET • 6 min read No matter what you think going into a given contest, the beautiful thing about the NFL is that it largely doesn't matter once the game kicks off. At that point, anything can happen, which is why the league has us in a chokehold throughout the fall. That said, as we roll along in a given season, the schedule begins to dictate where upsets could occur, simply due to the fact that one team may be a little more rested than the other, particularly as bye weeks come into play. For instance, we see that this week, between the Panthers and Eagles. Philadelphia opened as a home favorite, but has since seen those odds flip. Why? In part, because Carolina is coming off its bye, while the Eagles are coming off an international game in London in Week 5. Even before getting into the head-to-head matchups on the rosters, that lopsided rest disparity could be a major factor. While we won't highlight that game as one of our possible upset alerts, there are some rest components we'll highlight this week as we identify five favorites who could be on the brink of a surprise loss. Houston Texans (+2.5) at Jacksonville JaguarsWhen: 9:30 a.m. ET | Where: Wembley Stadium (London)TV: NFL Network | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)Texans ML odds: +120To steal a basketball analogy: Sometimes you just need to see the ball go through the net. Could that be the case for the Houston Texans defense? While the Titans provide little resistance to just about anyone, the Texans' defense put together its best effort of the season vs. Tennessee and helped Houston get its first win of the year. The unit held Tennessee to a field goal, a measly 3.2 yards per play average and sacked Cam Ward four times (three coming from Will Anderson Jr.). I wonder if that was a little bit of a get-right game for what was a reeling Texans team. Pair that with the arrival of C.J. Stroud's Ohio State buddy, Marvin Harrison Jr., and the vibes might be shifting in a more positive direction for Houston as it hops on a plane to London to face the Jaguars. Jacksonville pulled a victory out of its hat in the first leg of its two-week stint in England, narrowly beating the Eagles. While it got the win, it didn't look great doing it. The Jags were way too cute in the red zone and did not score a touchdown on any of their three trips. If they play with their food like that again, Houston's defense could once again keep them out of the end zone. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is 3-7 in his career against the Texans, throwing eight total touchdowns and 11 interceptions over those previous 10 games. Tennessee Titans (+7) at Indianapolis ColtsWhen: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)Titans ML odds: +260This is more about fading the Colts than it is buying stock in the Titans. This is a divisional matchup where I think the line is simply too big, and Tennessee could end up surprising some folks because Indy keeps them in it. I could see this Colts defense helping prop up what has been the worst offense in the NFL, as the Titans rank last in scoring (11.6) and total yards (246.4). For as bad as Tennessee's offense is, it gets a soft opponent in the Colts, who are 29th in the NFL in yards per play (4.6) and 28th in total yards allowed (384.2). If there was any week for Cam Ward and Co. to move the ball effectively, it'd be this one. Meanwhile, Indy's offense hasn't exactly lit the world on fire either. Specifically, Daniel Jones is 2-3 as the starter, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt, and he has more total turnovers (7) than touchdowns (4). As we've seen plenty of times from watching the NFL, the longer you keep an underdog hanging around, the more likely they are to steal the win. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+Buccaneers ML odds: +120Remember when we chatted about the schedule being a factor in some of these games? Well, this could be one of them. The Buccaneers could be a live home underdog for two key scheduling reasons. For one, Tampa Bay is coming off an upset win over the Cowboys last Thursday. That gives them a straight-up rest advantage over the Steelers, who played on Sunday. Second, Pittsburgh has an international game in Paris against the Saints next week, and I'm curious whether or not they fall into the trap of looking ahead to that game while overlooking the 1-4 NFC South team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay might be well-equipped to slow down some of the key figures on Pittsburgh's offense. The Bucs have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (72.8) through Week 5, which could help negate Jayen Warren's impact. As for Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers QB doesn't have the best splits against Todd Bowles over the course of his career as a defensive coordinator or head coach. Rodgers is 1-2 against Bowles' defenses and averages 6.4 yards per attempt, while his teams average just 16.7 points per game. Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+Raiders ML odds: +210Another scheduling quirk to note in this one is that the Bills will be playing on short rest when they square off against the Raiders in Las Vegas. Not only did Buffalo play on Monday night, but it found itself in a track meet with the Rams. The Bills were able to pull out the overtime win, but the defense was on the field for a season-high 78 plays. That unit has already been reeling, allowing the fifth-most points per game (28.2) and the third-most total yards per game (388.6) in the NFL this season. If they're a bit fatigued on top of it, that could help the Raiders offense go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen. Cowboys (+1.5) at Green Bay PackersWhen: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay)TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)Cowboys ML odds: +102I wonder if this could be a letdown spot for the Packers. They're coming off a dominant win against a division rival where they were home dogs at Lambeau Field. That has the winds hitting the sails a bit, but they do have a much tougher task this week against the Cowboys. Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense should provide more of a challenge than the seven points Chicago mustered with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum under center. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will have the rest advantage over the Packers after playing last Thursday and losing to the Bucs at home. The big concern with Dallas possibly pulling off the upset is, of course, their defense. It remains one of the worst units in the NFL, allowing the second-most total yards per game (395.4) in the NFL this season and the eighth-most points per game (27.2). What'll be interesting to see is who wins on the ground, specifically when it comes to the Packers' rushing attack and Dallas' run defense. The Cowboys are giving up the most rushing yards per game (168.4) this season, but the Green Bay offense is registering a league-low 60.4 rushing yards per game. If the Packers continue to struggle to run the ball effectively, it takes away one of the key concerns for Dallas.