NFL Week 6 picks, odds: Panthers stun Eagles in Philly, Buccaneers pull off upset

Tyler Sullivan picks every game on the Week 6 schedule, including five locks against the spread Oct 14, 2026 at 8:52 am ET • 5 min read I don't know what it is about the Week 6 slate, but I think we're going to have some underdogs bark rather loudly. I have four underdogs not only finding their way into my five locks of the week, but also two of them pulling off outright upsets. Judging by the headline of this article, you already know that the Panthers are one of those dogs that I think will win in Week 6 as they head up to Philly to face the Eagles. While I'll get into why I feel that way below, I'm just as fascinated by what may happen if it comes to fruition. Would this be the straw that breaks the camel's back when it comes to Nick Sirianni's job? Or does he live to fight another day and gear up for a do-or-die NFC East showdown in primetime with the Cowboys in Week 7? Either way, the storylines that could flow out of this upcoming slate feel like they're as juicy as we've seen so far this season, and that's saying something. Anyways, I'll look to improve upon my picks after a lackluster Week 5 where I went 2-3 ATS with my five locks of the week, along with 6-9 ATS and 9-5-1 SU for the overall slate. Note: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on the bye in Week 6.2026 recordLocks of the Week ATS: 12-12-1ATS: 33-44-2ML: 51-27-1Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)Carolina comes into this matchup with a pretty sizable rest advantage over Philadelphia. On top of the Panthers coming off of the bye, the Eagles were just in London last week. So, we have one team extremely well rested, while the other is reeling and just came off a demoralizing international loss. Beyond the lopsided rest advantage, the Eagles just feel like a mess right now. They're bottom five in the league in points per game (18.4), yards per game (262.2), and passing yards per game (170.6) coming into Week 6. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injury, but even when they've had their full squad, it's been clunky. Conversely, Carolina's offense is top-five in the NFL in those same categories, and it looks like they'll get No. 2 wideout Jalen Coker back for this one. I like the Panthers to roll into Lincoln Financial Field and turn the heat up under Nick Sirianni's seat to a fever pitch. Projected score: Panthers 23, Eagles 21The pick: Panthers +1.5Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)This is another game that has some outliers worth targeting. The Bucs will be at home after an upset win over the Cowboys last Thursday night in Dallas. They'll have the rest advantage over a Steelers team that took care of business against the Colts on Sunday. Similar to how I think the Cowboys sort of overlooked the then-winless Buccaneers with an undrafted rookie quarterback under center, Pittsburgh could get caught sleeping here, too. Not so much because they're going to overlook Jalon Daniels, but the Steelers could get caught looking ahead to their Week 7 matchup against the Saints in Paris. With a France trip on the horizon for Pittsburgh, I think Tampa Bay is a live home dog. Moreover, I think the Bucs defense has a good shot at containing the Steelers offense. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL through Week 5, which could limit Jaylen Warren's impact. Meanwhile, Todd Bowles has some solid splits against Aaron Rodgers over the course of his career as both a head coach and defensive coordinator. Rodgers' teams are 1-2 against Bowles and average just 16.7 points per game. Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 23The pick: Buccaneers +3Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)You'll undoubtedly scratch your head at this pick, and it's hard to blame you. Tennessee hasn't instilled any confidence this season and is punting on a league-high 53% of its drives. Still, I think this line is too big in a divisional matchup against the Colts, whom I don't believe are a serious player in the AFC. The Indy offense can't move the ball efficiently, ranking 29th in the NFL in yards per play (4.6). Meanwhile, their defense is 28th in the league in total yards allowed (384.2). Daniel Jones has also turned the ball over more times (7) than he's found the end zone (4) this season. So, for as bad as the Titans offense has been this season, Indy isn't that far off, so I'll gladly put the full touchdown in my back pocket. Projected score: Colts 24, Titans 20The pick: Titans +7Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)I think we're firmly on backdoor alert with this line. L.A. is coming off an overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night, so this is quite the turnaround for Sean McVay's club. Matthew Stafford dropped back and threw 54 times in the loss, while the Rams offense ran 78 total plays. That could see them a bit sluggish in this contest. I don't envision Arizona pulling off the upset, but I do think they're capable of scoring late to get us within the number here. For instance, Arizona kept the offense on the field throughout a blowout loss to Detroit and scored a largely meaningless touchdown just before the two-minute warning. That's the type of play we'll be looking for them here. Projected score: Rams 30, Cardinals 17The pick: Cardinals +13.5New York Jets at New England PatriotsSunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)I think the Patriots are all the way back. Drake Maye has seemingly returned to his MVP form from last year and just tallied five touchdowns in a blowout win over the Raiders. Gillette Stadium has been a comfortable spot for New England as they're 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Meanwhile, they've also taken care of business against inferior opponents under Mike Vrabel as the Patriots are 11-0 with him at the helm when facing teams entering with a losing record. Further looking at the trends for this one, the Patriots are 12-0 straight-up and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and have a +17.9 PPG differential over that stretch. As for the Jets, they've yet to win or cover (0-6) a divisional game under head coach Aaron Glenn. Projected score: Patriots 30, Jets 17 The pick: Patriots -7.5Rest of the bunchSeahawks at Broncos (Thursday)Projected score: Seahawks 24, Broncos 19The pick: Seahawks -2.5Texans at Jaguars (in London)Projected score: Jaguars 28, Texans 24The pick: Jaguars 2.5Ravens at BrownsProjected score: Ravens 26, Browns 20The pick: Ravens -4.5Bears at FalconsProjected score: Bears 27, Falcons 23The pick: Bears -3Saints at GiantsProjected score: Giants 26, Saints 20The pick: Giants -1.5Bills at RaidersProjected score: Bills 30, Raiders 21The pick: Bills -5.5Chargers at ChiefsProjected score: Chiefs 33, Chargers 17The pick: Chiefs -8.5Cowboys at PackersProjected score: Cowboys 27, Packers 24The pick: Cowboys +1Commanders at 49ers (Monday)Projected score: 49ers 30, Commanders 20The pick: 49ers -7.5