NFL Week 10 picks, best bets: Steelers cool off Joe Burrow's Bengals, Chiefs roll in Atlanta

Tyler Sullivan picks every game on the Week 10 schedule, including five locks against the spread Nov 11, 2026 at 8:43 am ET • 7 min read There's only one way to describe last week in the NFL: Chalk. Favorites dominated the Week 9 slate as just one upset occurred while every other favorite took care of business. That was music to our ears because we saw the week playing out that exact way, dialing up a perfect 15-0 record on the moneyline. The only underdog we liked last week was Green Bay, and they proved us right as they rolled into Foxborough and steamrolled the Patriots. That not only helped me notch a pristine moneyline record but also cashed one of my five Locks of the Week. There, I was 3-2 ATS, which jived with my more modest 8-7 ATS record for the week overall. That's not as stellar as the straight-up mark, but we were above .500, so we made money. And that's what we're after at the end of the day. I'll try to keep the momentum rolling into Week 10 where, unlike last week, I do have a fair share of underdogs pulling off the upsets. That includes the Pittsburgh Steelers, who land inside my five Locks of the Week. Note: Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay are on the bye in Week 10.All lines via DraftKings; All times ET2026 recordLocks of the Week ATS: 23-21-1ATS: 61-72-3ML: 90-45-1Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati BengalsSunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)There's arguably no offense hotter right now than the Bengals. Over their four-game winning streak, they've averaged over 35 points per game, and Joe Burrow has been playing at an MVP level. The Cincinnati QB has 18 total touchdowns over this stretch and a 132.0 passer rating. Simply put, they've been a bulldozer. However, I do think it's worth pointing out who they've played over the course of the winning streak: at Dolphins, at Ravens (no Lamar Jackson), vs. Titans and vs. Falcons. Not exactly a murderer's row. Pittsburgh, who beat these Bengals back in Week 3, should provide much more resistance than what they've faced recently. The Steelers defense is tied for the fifth-lowest yards per play average (5.0), tied for the fourth-lowest points per game allowed (18.0), and tied for the eighth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.3). Meanwhile, Cincinnati's defense is tied for the most yards per rush attempt allowed so far this season (5.0), which sets up Jaylen Warren to continue his ascent as one of the true breakout players of the season. On top of this being a potential mismatch for the Bengals going up against this stout Steelers team, their scheduling surrounding this game does them no favors either. While they'll be at home in Week 10, Cincinnati is coming off an international game in Madrid last week. As for the Steelers, they're fresh off their bye week, creating a sizable rest discrepancy. All of this is a recipe for an upset. Projected score: Steelers 27, Bengals 24The pick: Steelers +3.5Carolina Panthers at New Orleans SaintsSunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)While their 3-5 records don't exactly scream playoff contenders, first place in the NFC South is on the line in this game. Bryce Young doesn't have the best history going up against the Saints, as the Panthers quarterback is just 1-5 against his division foe in his career. That said, I think there's a window here for him to get a rare victory against New Orleans on Sunday. While his numbers have come down since his stellar start to begin the season, Young started to look more like himself in the loss to Denver, completing 71.7% of his passes to go along with three touchdowns. The Saints secondary is allowing 7.3 yards per attempt so far this season, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league. Their 99.5 passer rating allowed is also the seventh-highest in the NFL. This isn't as daunting a matchup for Young, who had to face Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver over Carolina's recent three-game losing streak. I like him to rebound here. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 1-4 straight-up and 0-5 ATS at home this season, so the Superdome hasn't been too friendly thus far. Projected score: Panthers 24, Saints 21The pick: Panthers +1.5Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta FalconsSunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)Similar to what we discussed with Cincinnati, the Falcons do have to deal with immediately playing the following week after an international game in Madrid last Sunday. That may only put them further behind the eight ball against a Chiefs team that cruised to a 35-12 win over the Jets last week. Patrick Mahomes did give us all a scare in the midst of that game after injuring his elbow, but it doesn't appear serious enough to keep him out of this matchup. Mahomes has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions over his past two games, but his lack of a downfield threat has been noticeable. He's averaging an NFL-low 5.6 air yards per attempt this season as the Chiefs have really looked for pass catches to put up yards after the catch. Well, they just acquired some help in that regard in Josh Downs, whom they brought in before the deadline in a trade with the Colts. The wideout has a knack for creating separation and now has a capable quarterback to deliver the football to him, so Kansas City could see quick dividends from this addition. That's especially true against a Falcons secondary that was just lit up by the Bengals last week and just traded away star safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars.Atlanta is also 0-4 straight-up and ATS in its last four games against the AFC. Projected score: Chiefs 26, Falcons 20The pick: Chiefs -3.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee TitansSunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)Jacksonville went all-in at the deadline, making trades to acquire Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to bolster its defense for a potential Super Bowl run. On the flip side, Tennessee traded away pieces, including standout safety Amani Hooker and, going back a couple of weeks, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. That's a lot of talent being drained from the defense, which doesn't bode well against Trevor Lawrence, who is making a sneaky MVP push. Entering Week 10, his 111.7 passer rating ranks second among quarterbacks who have started at least eight games, only looking up to Burrow. As this double-digit spread suggests, this is a David vs. Goliath matchup, and it's hard to imagine the underdog keeping this thing close. Even before making these trades, Jacksonville's defense was allowing 15.1 points per game (second-best in the NFL) and has also allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight road games. Tony Pollard, who remained with the team through the deadline, has been a bright spot in Tennessee's offense in recent weeks, but could be negated here. The Jaguars are allowing 3.7 yards per carry this season, along with an 89.3 rushing yards per game allowed average that ranks fifth-lowest in the NFL. A blowout is brewing in this matchup in favor of Jacksonville, who is 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games with a +16.3 points per game differential. Projected score: Jaguars 34, Titans 16The pick: Jaguars -10.5Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas RaidersSunday, 4:05 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)Welcome to the NFL, Fernando Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft is set to make his first career start in the aftermath of the Raiders trading Kirk Cousins, who started the first nine games of the year, to Minnesota before the deadline. This will be a baptism by fire for the Indiana product as he'll face off against a Seattle defense that is among the very best in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 244.2 total yards per game entering Week 10, along with an average of 18.0 points per game allowed that is tied for fourth-fewest. That just feels like too tall a mountain to climb for Mendoza right out of the gate. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense won't do their young quarterback any favors. They're currently on a six-game streak of allowing 30-plus points, which is tied for the longest streak within a season all-time. So, even with Sam Darnold (quad) sidelined and backup Drew Lock set to play through an oblique injury, the Seattle offense should find plenty of scoring opportunities. This could be a breakout game for Zach Charbonnet after leading the team with 16 carries last week for 77 yards, as the Raiders are allowing an NFL-high 5.0 yards per carry. Given that Mendoza is getting the start, it's also worth pointing out that No. 1 overall quarterbacks are 1-15-1 straight up and 3-14 ATS in their first career starts since 2003. Projected score: Seahawks 30, Raiders 20The pick: Seahawks -4.5Rest of the bunchCommanders at Giants (Thursday)Projected score: Commanders 24, Giants 21The pick: Commanders +2.5 Patriots at Lions (in Munich)Projected score: Lions 30, Patriots 20The pick: Lions -3Bills at JetsProjected score: Bills 33, Jets 21The pick: Bills -8Texans at BrownsProjected score: Texans 23, Browns 20The pick: Browns +4.5Dolphins at ColtsProjected score: Colts 27, Dolphins 17The pick: Colts -2.5Vikings at PackersProjected score: Vikings 24, Packers 23The pick: Vikings +4.5Rams at CardinalsProjected score: Rams 27, Cardinals 17The pick: Rams -9.549ers at Cowboys Projected score: 49ers 33, Cowboys 24The pick: 49ers -4.5Chargers at Ravens (Monday)Projected score: Ravens 24, Chargers 17The pick: Ravens -5