New Zealand now at risk of missing all its climate targets, Climate Commission warns

New Zealand is at risk of missing all of its climate targets, and time to get back on track is running out, the Climate Change Commission says.The commission says lagging progress on switching to low-emissions technology is no longer just a climate change problem: it's preventing households from saving money on energy costs.Its annual emissions monitoring report said New Zealand's climate pollution had gradually decreased over time.However, progress stalled in 2024, and the pace of reductions now needed to double to get back on track, it said.If the government did not come up with new ways to save emissions within the next year or two, the country would not be able to meet some of its targets at all, the commission warned."The time available to correct course is now short," the report said."Many emissions reductions depend on decisions made well before the reductions are realised, and some options ... are no longer available."That included planting more forestry, which would not mature quickly enough to meet the nearest targets.The risks were across nearly every sector, the report said.Agricultural emission pricing had been axed, and current government policies and industry incentive schemes were insufficient to bring methane emissions down.Confidence in the emissions trading scheme - which the government has said is its main tool to drive down greenhouse gases - was "fragile".And almost all the emissions reductions in industry to date were from projects funded by the previous government's GIDI scheme, which the current government scrapped.'Current policy settings not delivering at pace needed'"This is a clear warning sign," commission chief executive Jo Hendy said."Current policy settings are not delivering at the pace needed. Government choices in the next 12 to 24 months will be critical to getting the country back on track."Climate Change Commission chief executive Jo Hendy says government choices in the next year or two will be critical.RNZ / Dom ThomasClimate disruption was already affecting households through severe weather events - but inaction was also adding to everyday cost of living.Low-emissions technology like solar panels and EVs were cheaper to run than fossil fuel equivalents, but the upfront costs to households meant roll-out was lagging, Hendy said."This isn't just a missed opportunity to reduce emissions, it means that households and businesses may be paying higher energy costs than they need to."The government had low-cost opportunities to fix that, through targeted funding and financing and better information for households about their choices."It's not just about what the government spends money on, but also the signals it gives," Hendy said."Clear and stable policy settings help households, businesses and investors make decisions with confidence."UnsplashNational has said it will campaign on a home energy scheme to make low-cost loans available to help households shift to solar.Labour and the Greens have announced similar policies, and questioned why the government is not using their support to enact the loan scheme now.As well as New Zealand's net-zero target for 2050, the government must also meet emissions 'budgets' - the maximum amount of emissions the country can produce in a five-year time period.The current emissions budget was at significant risk, and the subsequent one would not be met with current plans and policies, the commission said.The country was now also off-track to meet a 2030 target of reducing methane emissions by 10 percent.The government had announced some actions to reduce emissions, but these were likely to be outweighed by other decisions it had made that could increase emissions.Some of the actions that could increase emissions include:Excluding agriculture from emissions pricingChanges to the Clean Car Standard (including an option to scrap it)Increasing the mandatory climate reporting threshold for listed companiesDelays implementing a regulated product stewardship scheme for refrigerantsCommitting to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilityPotential actions that could decrease emissions include:Improved energy regulatory measuresExtending the road user charges exemption for electric heavy vehiclesPassing legislation to enable time-of-use charging for transport systemsThe new Gas Transition Loan Guarantee Scheme, which was announced after the commission's assessment period ended.Since the assessment period ended on March 31, the government had also announced a $51 million investment fund to help roll out methane-busting technology on farms.Agricultural methane accounts for half of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions and the country's plan to meet its climate targets relies heavily on farmers cutting emissions.However, the decision to not go ahead with methane pricing left little financial incentive for farmers to adopt the technologies, some of which have marginal or no productivity gains.