NBC data guru Steve Kornacki gives Trump a reason to be hopeful about election night

Election guru Steve Kornacki found one set of data that may give President Donald Trump and Republicans a reason to be hopeful ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. Polling leading up to Election Day has consistently shown that Democrats have a good shot at breaking up the GOP’s total control of Congress, and may retake the House and the Senate. However, during Sunday’s Meet the Press, the NBC News chief data analyst shared one glimmer of hope for the Republican Party. NBC’s latest polls have Trump with a measly 40 percent approval rating and 60 percent disapproval rating. Kornacki noted that in 2018, while Trump’s net approval was still in the negatives, it was not nearly as bad. “So by this metric, he is in worse shape heading into his second midterm than into his first one,” Kornacki said. Polls have shown Democrats are likely to break up the GOP’s control of Congress this Election Day (NBC News/Meet The Press)Kornacki also noted that Trump has lost significant support over his handling of the economy. Of those surveyed in 2018, a whopping 68 percent approved of Trump’s handling. Meanwhile, according to NBC’s most recent data, only 26 percent currently approve.“Barely one quarter of voters say they are satisfied with it,” Kornacki said. “Almost three quarters say they’re dissatisfied. Again, compare this to Trump’s first midterm in 2018. I think this is why his standing in that approval rating is lower now because look at this: in 2018, the economy was his strong suit. Nearly 70 percent of voters on the eve of that midterm were satisfied with it. The total opposite right now.” Despite this, Kornacki noted a potential glimmer of hope for the GOP. While the polling has largely shown that Democrats may retake the House and Senate, NBC’s polling also showed that Republicans still have a higher net approval than Democrats. “Is there hope for Republicans?” Kornacki asked. “The one number they would point to would simply be — and this is a difference from 2018 — the image of the two political parties here. Republicans are not popular, but their number overall, as a party, their favorable-unfavorable number, is about where it was in 2018.” The Republican Party currently has control of the House and the Senate (Getty)Kornacki noted it’s a different story for Democrats, as the party is only 29 percent favorable now. “That’s different than 2018, and that is one of the questions heading into Tuesday,” he said. “In ‘18, the Democrats as a party were positioned to take votes from voters who were dissatisfied with Trump. Does the Democratic Party have more baggage now in a way that will prevent it from capitalizing on all these other numbers we're showing you?” The data comes just one day before Election Day, as the Democrats attempt to gain majorities from Republicans in both the House and the Senate.Voters will also choose governors in 36 of the 50 states, and nearly every state will hold elections for its state-level legislative bodies.This year’s midterm elections have also proven to be one of the most expensive in history. As of October 30, a record $11.6 billion had been spent on political advertisements for the 2025–26 election cycle.AdImpact, which tracks the activities, said the top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.