Nations Championship permutations: What do Ireland need to reach the inaugural grand final at Twickenham?

With one round remaining in the inaugural Nations Championship, five teams – Ireland, France, England, South Africa and New Zealand – are in the running to reach the grand final on Sunday, November 29th in Twickenham.When next weekend’s games are wrapped up, the top-ranked team from the northern hemisphere group will meet their counterparts from the southern hemisphere group to determine who claims the first Nations Championship title.All 12 teams in the competition will take part in the finals weekend in London, with each nation facing the team that finished in their corresponding position in the other hemisphere group. The two first-placed sides vie for the title, while the two second-place teams will face off in a third-place playoff, the two third-place teams will contest a fifth-place playoff, and so on.In the northern hemisphere group, France lead the standings on 21 points, with England second on 20 points. Ireland are third, also on 20 points but behind Steve Borthwick’s side on scoring difference.READ MOREEngland are in action first on Saturday, welcoming New Zealand to Twickenham (kick-off 2.10pm) before Ireland face the Springboks at the Aviva (4.40pm) and France play Argentina (8.10pm Irish time).With their one-point advantage, France are in the driving seat. If Fabien Galthié’s side beat the Pumas with a bonus point, the place in the grand final is theirs regardless of how Ireland or England fare. France, playing last in the day, will also have the benefit of knowing exactly what is required to finish top of the group based on the results in London and Dublin.In short, for Ireland to reach the grand final, they must hope both France and England slip up.Firstly, England have a considerable advantage on scoring difference (plus 134 to Ireland’s plus 57), so if Ireland only manage the same league points (as opposed to scored points) haul as England, they’re unlikely to overtake them as Farrell’s team also have to overturn that scoring difference deficit – currently 77, plus or minus what England win or lose by against the All Blacks.So, for example, if England lose without a losing bonus point (for zero points), Ireland will need to at least lose with a bonus point (for one point) to go above England in the standings; if England draw without a try-scoring bonus point (two points), Ireland will need to at least draw with a try-scoring bonus point (three points), and so on.Should England win with a bonus point, earning them the maximum five points on offer, it’ll almost certainly be curtains for Ireland’s hopes for topping the northern group, as a 77-plus point win over the Springboks is a level of fantasy we ought not entertain.When you then factor in what it will take to remove France from the top spot, Ireland’s chances start to feel even slimmer. Straight out of the gates, if Ireland lose against the Springboks, a first-place finish is all but out of the question as it will almost certainly leave them unable to catch up, even if France fluff their lines in Paris. Losing with a bonus point could pull Ireland level if Les Bleus lose to Argentina by more than seven (denying them a losing bonus point). But in this case, Ireland would again be up against it on scoring difference, France currently on plus 80.For the same reason, a win of any description for France would leave Ireland all but gone, as even if they can manage the bonus-point win needed in that scenario, it’s still unlikely to come with the 23-plus point winning margin required to get ahead of the French.To boil it all down to one simple mantra for Saturday: Ireland need to come away from their game against the Springboks with one more league point than England manage against New Zealand, and two more league points than France subsequently take against Argentina.With France in flying form and the world champions smarting after Friday’s result in Paris, getting the result needed to reach the grand final may be a bridge too far for Ireland.Northern series final round (Saturday, November 21st – all times Irish)England v New Zealand, Twickenham, 2.10pmScotland v Japan, Murrayfield, 2.10pmIreland v South Africa, Aviva Stadium, 4.40pmItaly v Fiji, Stadio Friuli, Udine, 4.40pm Wales v Australia, Principality Stadium, 8.10pmFrance v Argentina, Stade de France, 8.10pm Finals weekend (all games at Twickenham)Friday, November 27th11/12th-place playoff: North 6th v South 6th, 4.40pm5th/6th-place playoff: North 3rd v South 3rd, 8.10pmSaturday, November 28th9th/10th-place playoff: North 5th v South 5th, 1.10pm3rd/4th-place playoff: North 2nd v South 2nd, 4.40pmSunday, November 29th7th/8th-place playoff: North 4th v South 4th, 1.10pm Grand final: North 1st v South 1st, 4.40pm