National's voters are walking. Here's where they're going

Analysis: Almost one in five who voted National in 2023 now back ACT or New Zealand First, according to a breakdown of the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll - but Labour is still the biggest single beneficiary of National's reduced support.Released on Thursday, the poll showed National's overall vote falling to 24.8 percent and Labour on 30.6 percent.Closer analysis of the numbers shows just 56.9 percent of those who said they voted National in 2023 still back the party.Labour has picked up 14 percent of National's previous voters.ACT takes 10.6 percent and New Zealand First 7.8 percent, giving National's coalition partners a combined 18.4 percent of its 2023 voters.The findings come as National pushes back against a right-wing strategic voting campaign calling for National supporters to give just their electorate vote to National, and their party vote to ACT or NZ First.The strategy relies on National winning more MPs in electorates than its party vote would normally allow, thereby creating an overhang and boosting the coalition's combined numbers.Listen to Caucus: Top political commentators unpick and make sense of New Zealand's election campaigns with frank and forthright discussion.Former prime minister Sir John Key has warned against the tactic, calling it "the opposite of clever". On Monday, he told Morning Report that National needed to remain a "strong core" of any resulting government.The RNZ-Reid Research figures do not establish whether voters have switched teams for tactical reasons or who they intend to back with their electorate vote.National's losses also extend well beyond its coalition partners.Roughly a quarter of National's 2023 voters now favour a party outside the coalition, are undecided or say they would not vote.Alongside Labour's 14 percent, Opportunity attracts 4.9 percent of National's previous voters and the Greens take 3.6 percent.The movement between National and Labour is heavily in Labour's favour, with just 3.3 percent of Labour's 2023 voters now backing National.Labour also retains more of its previous supporters, with 71.5 percent of its 2023 voters still backing the party.Its biggest losses are to the Greens, which attract 9.9 percent of Labour's previous voters, followed by Opportunity on 5.6 percent and NZ First on 5.1 percent.Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between 20-26 October, with the results weighted to reflect the population.The full poll has a maximum margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, with greater uncertainty for the smaller groups of previous National and Labour voters.