National Party MPs feeling the pressure of party vote plunge

Analysis - National is in a fight to save the furniture just nine days out from the polls closing.The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has the governing party falling below the 25 percent mark - collecting just 24.8 points as it nears the home stretch to 7 November.That result is a drop on the 25.9 points it registered in our poll three weeks ago, and even worse than the 25.6 percent National got in the dire 2020 election result.This poll puts an almost six-point gap between National and Labour, which registered 30.6 percent.While National is in real danger territory, its coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First are sitting on 10.1 and 9.9 respectively, putting the gap between their combined vote and National's at less than five percent.In a sign the strategic voting phenomenon being pitched by some on the centre-right could be resonating, ACT is up 1.1 - a direct swap with National, which is down by the exact same number.The strategy is built on the idea that voters on the right give their candidate vote to National and their party vote to ACT or New Zealand First, which has the effect of creating an overhang with National winning more electorate seats than its allocated party vote proportion.It's a play that has National Party list MPs and those in marginal seats, who are relying on a strong party vote, pulling their hair out as they look at poll after poll with their chances of getting into Parliament diminishing.Look no further than Paul Goldsmith who has resorted to sending out letters in his electorate asking Epsom voters to "do things differently" and give him the electorate vote as "David Seymour is guaranteed to be re-elected on the ACT Party list".Adding it would be the "greatest honour" of his career to be the MP for Epsom. Not only that, on RNZ's poll numbers it's the only way he'll be an MP with his list spot of sixth far from safe.Deputy leader Nicola Willis, senior MP and minister Chris Bishop, and Speaker Gerry Brownlee are in similarily precarious positions and there's two places to point the finger.One is a global trend of major parties' falling support in democracies abroad, and political fragmentation leading to previously minor parties growing in support.That trend has seen the purple vote - the combined Labour and National vote - drop steadily across the course of the year and down to just 55.4 percent in this poll.The other contributor to National's woes is the Christopher Luxon-shaped hole in its polling.It takes a likeable leader to keep polling at a level that sees its most senior MPs and current Cabinet ministers return after just three years in power.After continually choosing to put its electoral success in the hands of Luxon the caucus in some respects has only itself to blame.Twice there have been confidence votes called on Luxon's leadership and twice he's stared his detractors down and stayed in the job despite eye-wateringly low net approval ratings.Luxon's net approval score is unchanged in this poll, but that's not a celebration when it's a result of -23.7.Choosing twice to recommit to Luxon has almost certainly hurt the party vote.At the same time Luxon's approval is down the drain, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has turned his negative scores of the past two RNZ-Reid Research polls into a positive 5 percent.That's backed up with him being ahead in the preferred prime minister stakes on 23 percent to Luxon's 17.While National will be scratching its heads trying to work out how to turn the ship around with just over a week to go, Labour isn't in celebratory land either.While it's cleared the twenties and hit 30 percent it would still need the Greens and Opportunity to form a government on these numbers.Likewise with Opportunity holding the balance of power the centre-right bloc would also need Opportunity to get a majority - something Luxon continues to rule out as an option.With the smaller parties increasing their share of the vote the leverage and influence they'll have in post-election coalition talks also grows.It makes the promises from National and Labour on the campaign trail meaningless in some respects given the slate will be wiped clean at the negotiating table.Opportunity looks to have charted a course through the middle putting itself in a strong powerbroker position on 7.2 percent as election day draws closer.MPs in the coalition government continue to ridicule Opportunity, including National's Erica Stanford who this week called the party a "bunch of flakes".Attacks like those lay bare the true extent of the pressure National MPs are coming under.