Nasdaq Futures Slide As Nvidia Board Hunts For Huang's Replacement, Rivals Feast

US futures are lower, led by a slide in Nasdaq contracts, after Nvidia's board started hunting for a replacement for Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy, turning the AI trade's central bank into its biggest single risk; meanwhile the haven bid sent long-end Treasuries higher and 30Y yields as low as 5.32%. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures are 1.5% lower; Dow futures are down 0.4% as money rotates out of tech. That follows a session in which the S&P rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Philly semis index soared 5.7% as CoreWeave's results eased fears about AI spending, erasing the Nasdaq's post-midterm losses. Premarket, Nvidia is down 6-7% after sliding as much as 9% after hours, confirming our report from last night, while the rest of the Mag 7 is little changed and Nvidia's rivals are feasting on the carnage: AMD is up 4% and Broadcom 2.9%, while neoclouds and AI hardware names such as CoreWeave and Super Micro slump. The day's driver is Nvidia (and its HR department): the board is meeting to decide Huang's fate, is working with an outside firm to find candidates, and some directors favor CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO; Democratic senators want records on Nvidia chip exports to China preserved, days before Xi hosts Trump in Shenzhen. In rates, long-end Treasuries rose as cash trading resumed after the Veterans Day holiday, with the curve twisting flatter as the short end underperforms; the 10Y is flat near 4.99% and swaps still price 28bps of Fed hikes in December, i.e. a certain quarter-point move and a small chance of a jumbo half-point hike. The Bloomberg dollar index dipped 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the yen hovers just below 160 despite more jawboning from Tokyo. In commodities, oil slipped toward a two-month low near $86 WTI despite Iran saying two supertankers were halted by explosions in Hormuz, gold fell 1% to about $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000, and copper is lower; bitcoin is down 1% around $73,500. US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 1pm.In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: NVDA falls 7% as the company’s board has been working with an outside firm to identify potential replacements for Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs (Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.4%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.9%)Artificial intelligence-related stocks fall amid the leadership crisis at Nvidia. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbs 1% and and Broadcom (AVGO) rises nearly 1% on bets they may win business from chip giant Nvidia. Corteva (CTVA) falls 9% after after the agricultural chemical and seed company cut its full-year Ebitda guidance, citing materially weaker market conditions in Brazil.Digi International (DGII) falls 18% after the communications software company’s first-quarter and full-year outlooks failed to impress. Eli Lilly (LLY) gains 2% after its China unit said Foundayo tablet was approved as a Class 1 new drug for adult weight managbioement by the country’s National Medical Products Administration, according to a WeChat statement. Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) climbs 4% after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight, saying the life sciences firm is best positioned to benefit from Democrats’ win in the US midterm elections. National Vision Holdings (EYE) falls 16% after the the optical retailer posted disappointing third quarter revenue. Nebius Group (NBIS) falls 8% after the provider of a cloud platform designed for AI builders sees 2027 capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion versus the Bloomberg average analyst estimate of $28.76 billion. T1 Energy (TE) falls 9% after the solar equipment maker reported third-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate as production costs rose.Tetra Tech (TTEK) climbs 10% after the engineering company’s 2027 net revenue forecast topped analysts’ estimates at the midpoint of the range.Yeti (YETI) plunges 7% after the maker of travel drinkware and coolers cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.In other corporate news, while Nvidia's board searches for a CEO, the rest of the AI capital machine keeps humming: CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion via an investment-grade loan, and Anthropic's IPO, which could raise as much as $90.4 billion including a private placement, is already multiple times oversubscribed before pricing on Nov. 18 (as we noted, oversubscribed books have a mixed track record). MSCI dropped Strategy from its global equity benchmarks, potentially triggering billions of dollars in stock sales. BP is in talks to sell a stake in Brazil's Bumerangue block, its biggest discovery in 25 years, to Petrobras. Google suffered a setback in its fight over a nearly €1.5 billion EU antitrust fine after an adviser to the bloc's top court sided with the Commission. Canada's CPPIB plans to boost its hedge fund allocation to about $160 billion. Southern Co. is offering $1.75 billion of equity units and Guardant Health priced $500 million of zero-coupon converts. Separately, Citrini's Jukan claims Nvidia's Rubin has been delayed again, with volume shipments slipping to 2027, and Axios reports Trump authorized a crackdown on companies diverting Nvidia's advanced chips to China.The global framing this morning is a simple one: a rebound in tech came to a halt as traders confronted a leadership crisis at the company that sits at the center of the AI supply chain, and which has spent the past two years handing out the circular financing that kept the whole ecosystem humming. The early read is that money is moving within the theme rather than out of it: AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet have all gained on bets they could win business from Nvidia, while Europe is rising for a fourth day as investors rotate out of AI and into healthcare and consumer names. As Bloomberg's Before the Bell put it, if Nvidia's rivals keep rising this is a reshuffle within the AI trade; if they crack too, the wider market's calm may not last.JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke argues that whoever succeeds Huang will not be able to keep handing out circular financing deals the way Nvidia has, which is a problem for every neocloud and startup on the other side of those deals.Barclays strategist Julien Lafargue notes that since Nvidia has been called the central bank of the AI trade, the turmoil will have implications, though he does not expect the AI trade to be derailed in the long run.Bloomberg Intelligence's Mandeep Singh expects any replacement to be "quite conservative," and Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives reckons Nvidia is worth 25% less without Huang as CEO. Analyst downgrades have started rolling in, with Oppenheimer cutting the stock to Market Perform.And yet, the market keeps doing what it's not supposed to: the VIX closed at 17.5 last night, back below the 20 stress threshold, and the AI complex has bounced hard even as core parts remain deep in bear territory, as the chart below shows. Today is the first real test of whether that calm holds.Goldman Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky found it "quite impressive how much we've managed to rally in the face of the macro backdrop and increasingly idiosyncratic problems at Nvidia." He stressed that Wednesday was emphatically not a broad move: semis did the heavy lifting (SOX +5.5%, ARM and Micron +12% each) while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon finished lower, and the standout was GS's Retail Favorites basket, up 495bps in its third-best day in three years. The vol complex has largely reset, with the SPX vol curve un-inverting and skew flattening, and he notes that the fact the market can absorb this much Nvidia-specific pressure without broader capitulation is noteworthy. His open question is whether this is just the mechanical result of light positioning and short covering, or the start of something more durable. On AI, he still separates fundamental compute demand from multiples, with hyperscalers best placed, and expects the infrastructure trade to deliver episodic, high-beta rallies rather than buy-and-hold returns. His bottom line: a durable breakout needs lower rates, lower energy and broader leadership, and "the market needs oil fixed and rates lower... absent that, I suspect we chop rather than break out", although reset positioning and elevated vol are powerful short-term tailwinds (more on his views here).Elsewhere at Goldman, Sean Johnstone on the London TMT desk says hedge funds and long-only accounts have started chasing the US semis bounce, with the SOX up nearly 20% from its lows but still about 25% below its highs; similar buying has yet to show up in Europe. Prime Brokerage's Marco Laicini reports that systematic long/short managers had their best two-day return in almost three years as momentum renormalized and crowded trades recovered. In FX, Mike Cahill points out that CPI has now beaten consensus by a cumulative 32bps over four months with no single category driving it, a broad-based pattern that looks like a missed "trend factor" reminiscent of 2021-22, which helps explain why Goldman added a third hike. And GS economists estimate US AI investment will hit $1.4 trillion annualized by end-2027, about 4% of GDP, while flagging the risk of data-center moratoria from newly elected Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia and Michigan.JPMorgan's Market Intelligence desk under Andrew Tyler calls this morning's weakness more profit-taking than a reversal, noting semis have retraced all their post-midterm losses, but stays hesitant to declare the all-clear on AI because clients are selling into up-days in tech and semis. The desk remains Tactically Bullish, sees hyperscalers as the main beneficiaries of any residual semis weakness, and prefers playing cyclicals through Europe rather than the US. Manish Sinha warns rotation risk in semis is rising, with a possible 10% pullback, as Wednesday's move came on light liquidity. JPM's positioning team (John Schlegel) says investors are closing gaps and neutralizing risk mostly by covering shorts rather than chasing: global equity futures positioning moved from -0.9z to -0.1z in a week, and Stoxx 50 positioning is at a 12-month high. Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reiterates his 8,000 year-end S&P target, arguing the de-leveraging is far along: October was the biggest single-month unwind for long momentum on record, and AI multiples have dropped about 35% since May.Commenting on the overnight action, Integrity Asset Management's Joe Gilbert told Bloomberg that “This is an unequivocal negative for Nvidia and the entire AI ecosystem. He is not only the face of AI but arguably the architect of the AI infrastructure. It will be difficult if not impossible to replicate Jensen's vision.” Bloomberg Markets Live team leader Garfield Reynolds said “The broadening turmoil surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang may hit the AI ecosystem all the harder for coming at a time when optimism was building for a sustained rebound. Nvidia's role at the heart of financing for much of the sector means that the prospect of a sudden change of management carries risks well beyond those for the company alone.” Natixis CIB strategist Emilie Tetard added that “a good safe haven would be bonds,” and that “Maybe the dollar will be the safe haven if rates are higher. It's tough to see which one will materialize.”In Europe, the bond story is a quiet one: bunds and gilts are bid by 10-20 ticks as lower energy prices and the tech wobble help, shrugging off UK GDP that grew 0.7% in Q3 (its fastest in two and a half years) and supports the case for a back-to-back BOE hike in December; BlackRock's Alex Brazier thinks the BOE may deliver the three to four additional hikes priced in. Germany's Constitutional Court dismissed the challenges to the ECB's PEPP bond buying.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% at 665.56, extending its streak to a fourth day and building on Wednesday's first record close since August, with 436 members up and 150 down as investors rotate out of AI and into healthcare and consumer names; the DAX is up 1.1% at a record. Retail, consumer products and healthcare lead while tech and basic resources lag, with ASML, Infineon, Nokia and Soitec sliding on the Nvidia news. JPM's desk notes Germany and SMIDcaps lead and Spain lags, with value and size beating momentum, consistent with Privorotsky's view that Europe's broader leadership is what US markets lack. Here are the biggest European movers:B&M shares gain as much as 20%, the biggest intraday advance since the discount retailer listed in London 12 years ago, after a trading performance Jefferies described as “impressive.”Adecco shares rise as much as 16% after the Swiss staffing company reported a third-quarter earnings beat and analysts pointed to improving margins and hiring volumes, as well as additional cost savings.Siemens shares rise as much as 5.2%, the most since April, after 4Q results beat estimates, fiscal year 2026 orders hit a record, and the German industrial group raised its medium-term growth targets.Burberry shares climb as much as 9.6%, the biggest intraday gain since April, after the company reported results that analysts said compared favorably in a more challenging luxury trading environment.Allegro shares advance as much as 5.7%, to the highest in five years, after the Polish e-commerce platform delivered a third-quarter earnings beat, upgraded full-year guidance and won cheaper parcel rates from InPost.Merck KGaA shares rise as much as 3.1%, to the highest since October 2024, after the German conglomerate boosted its 2026 earnings forecast for the third time this year.Rolls-Royce shares rise as much as 3.9% after the engineering and defense company announced a new £1.5b interim buyback and delivered what Morgan Stanley sees as a “positive and reassuring” trading update.Chipmakers and companies part of Europe’s broader AI ecosystem decline as Nvidia’s board meets to consider replacing CEO Jensen Huang. Decliners include ASML, Soitec, Infineon and Nokia.Endeavour Mining shares slump as much as 10% after a third-quarter EBITDA beat was overshadowed by concerns that disruptions to operations at its Mana mine could pose downside risks.FLSmidth shares drop as much as 7.1%, the most since early February, as JPMorgan says the mining-equipment maker’s new mid-term target for organic revenue growth is disappointing.Partners Group shares slips as much as 2.3% as Goldman Sachs downgrades the Swiss private equity firm to sell from neutral, citing mixed fundamentals.Telefonica shares fall as much as 3.2% after the Spanish telecom cut its full-year revenue growth forecast and reported 3Q results in Germany that analysts see as weak.Asian stocks fell as Nvidia's leadership turmoil overshadowed the Wall Street tech rebound, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.8% after erasing an early gain of as much as 0.4%. Taiwan's Taiex sank 2.6% after a 17% four-session rally, with TSMC down 2.3%, and the Taiwan dollar closed at a 19-month low. The Hang Seng fell 1.3% and the Hang Seng Tech index 2%, with Alibaba down 6.8% on chip-access fears and a tepid Singles' Day, while SMIC and Hua Hong rose on the prospect of local substitution. The Kospi slipped 0.6% even as foreigners were net buyers for a third day, and the CSI 300 dropped 0.8%. The Nikkei fell 0.7% to 60,819 after hitting 61,788 intraday, with Nvidia supplier Ibiden sliding more than 8%, while the Topix edged up 0.2%; Goldman's Tokyo desk titled its note "Jensen anxiety" and saw net selling led by European accounts. Japan's October PPI ran hotter than expected at 7.1% y/y, but BOJ dove Asada urged caution on the pace of hikes. Indonesia's JCI rallied 2.3% even as the rupiah hit a record low that drew central bank intervention, and Indian CPI accelerated to 6.09%.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the DXY briefly topped 103 (its highest since April 2025) before easing back toward 102.85. Havens lead the G10, with the Swiss franc up 0.2% against the dollar, while the Aussie is the worst performer at 0.6835 after earlier hitting its lowest since January on RBA slowdown and AI fears. USD/JPY sits near 159.75 after Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura said moves were too fast, a warning traders ignored given widening yield differentials; Goldman says pre-CPI dollar shorts and long-yen positions were stopped out. EUR/USD is around 1.1090, near an 18-month low.In rates, Treasuries are modestly firmer as cash trading resumes after the Veterans Day holiday, with the long end catching a haven bid on the Nvidia turmoil while the front end underperforms, extending the curve flattening that followed Tuesday's hot CPI. The 30-year yield fell as much as 3bps to 5.32% and the 10Y is unchanged around 4.99%. Swaps continue to price 28bps of hikes for the December meeting, meaning traders see a quarter-point move as certain plus a small chance of a half-point move after Waller floated the idea and Goolsbee called the latest inflation data "borderline disturbing"; today's six Fed speakers will be parsed for any further openness to 50bps (yes, the debate is about how much to hike). Supply comes in the form of a $25 billion 30-year bond auction at 1pm. In Europe, bunds and gilts are up 10-20 ticks, Italy sold €6.75 billion of BTPs, and the UK's 2033 gilt sale drew a 3.52x bid-to-cover.In commodities, WTI is down 0.9% at $85.76 and Brent is down 0.9% at $91.96, hovering near two-month lows. Prices briefly spiked, with Brent touching $93.94, after the IRGC said explosions halted two supertankers carrying more than 4 million barrels on the "unauthorized" route through the Strait of Hormuz, but the move unwound as focus returned to a WSJ report that VP Vance could meet Iran's Rezaei; Saudi Arabia also told OPEC its output surged 26% in October. Later Iran said it is reviewing an NPT exit as an "unavoidable necessity," per Fars. European gas is the exception, with Dutch TTF up more than €3 to above €90/MWh on colder weather models and unconstructive Russian commentary ahead of Putin's meeting with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner. Spot gold is down about 1% near $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000 as the dollar stays firm and Treasuries act as the haven, and LME copper is just below $13,700 on the AI-ecosystem hit. The EIA weekly inventory report is due at noon, delayed a day by the holiday.US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am, est. 194k, prior 189k), October existing home sales (10am, est. 3.85m) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). Applied Materials and Cisco report after the close; Kraft Heinz hosts an investor day in New York and Woodside holds a capital markets day.Market SnapshotTop Overnight NewsVice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party: WSJ (probably not any more after the Trump post)American efforts to bring down diesel prices allowed Russia to double its exports of the fuel last month, although none of the shipments generated by Trump’s decision to lift fuel sanctions against Moscow have reached the US: FTBeijing said the US should stop using allegations of Chinese spying on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to justify technology restrictions, a dispute that has put the US-China trade truce (which expires in January) to the test, while Democratic senators asked the Trump administration to preserve all records regarding the export of Nvidia chips to China: BBGDemocrats added Mississippi to their midterm gains as Scott Colom upset Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, becoming the state’s first Black senator since Reconstruction: BBGNvidia’s board met to discuss Jensen Huang’s future following a NYT report that he had a relationship with one of his direct reports, and the company is said to be working with an outside adviser on potential replacements; a Huang exit may make it harder for Nvidia to keep pulling ahead in chips and AI and would weaken the industry’s most influential opponent of tighter US controls on China: BBGNvidia closed with a 14-day RSI of ~24 yesterday, the lowest since mid-2019, as the two highest-volume days of the past year for the shares came this week and the stock has shed about $430bn of market cap: GSChina’s central bank gave little away in its latest quarterly report, but analysts’ key takeaway is that no rate cuts are on the near-term horizon, with the PBOC reiterating a pro-growth, accommodative stance while again flagging the risk of too-low rates: WSJJapan’s corporate goods inflation accelerated for the first time in three months, with the PPI up 7.1% in October from a year earlier and 0.7% on the month, the fastest since May, adding to the case for a Bank of Japan rate increase next month: BBGJapan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned the yen’s recent moves were too fast, signaling authorities remain ready to intervene, while BOJ board member Toichiro Asada urged caution on the pace of rate hikes: BBGThe UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in two and a half years, matching estimates, and GDP rose 0.2% in September alone: BBGSome NVIDIA (NVDA) directors favour CFO Kress as interim CEO: SemaforWhite House said it isn’t intervening in NVIDIA (NVDA) board’s decision: WaPoAlleged Chinese spy in the NVIDIA (NVDA) scandal Alice Huang is reportedly in China and is living in Beijing with the knowledge of security officials: BBGUS President Trump on Thursday authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia's (NVDA) advanced AI chips to China, with the Trump-approved curb yet to happen: AxiosA more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewsquawkAPAC stocks were ultimately lower in two-way trade and with gains ultimately reversed as the momentum from the continued tech rebound on Wall St was clouded by the fallout from a report regarding NVIDIA CEO Huang's extramarital affair with a Co. executive. This spurred doubts regarding his future at the helm of the tech giant, with the board in a meeting on his future and said to be preparing to oust him. ASX 200 finished slightly lower as strength in financials and real estate was counterbalanced by underperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, while participants also digested firmer-than-expected PPI data, as well as comments from Takaichi-appointed BoJ board member Asada, who stated that they need to watch downside economic risks and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid the tech-related headwinds. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated, with weakness seen in tech and ecommerce stocks, as the likes of Alibaba and JD.com underperformed after the tepid Singles' Day sales growth underscored weak consumer spending, while there were reportedly concerns that the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips.Top Asian NewsIndonesia former president Jokowi's son Gibran resigns as Indonesia's Vice President.European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly on a firmer footing, in contrast to the negative sentiment seen across Asia and US equity futures. The region appears to be benefiting from its relatively high exposure to industrials/financials, and less so in the Tech space, which has come under renewed pressure today. Overnight, it was reported that Nvidia CEO Huang had another affair, but this time with an executive at his own company. As it stands, the board is reportedly voting on whether to oust Huang; Bloomberg suggested that long-serving CFO Kress and hardware engineer Buck are the favourites on an interim basis. Industry execs expect short-term supply chain operations to remain stable, but given Huang’s excellent relationship with manufacturers, his removal could result in a slowdown in capacity expansion and/or aggressive investment. With a potential ousting today, Nvidia shares are down by 5.5% in pre-market trade; peers such as SK Hynix (-2%) follow the sentiment lower. However, competitors such as AMD (+4%) and Broadcom (+3.6%) both gain. Back to European sectors; Consumer Products leads, followed by Retail and then Healthcare. Unsurprisingly, Tech holds towards the foot of the pile, joined closely by Basic Resources. As for key movers this morning: Adecco (+14%, Q3 results topped forecasts), Siemens (+4.4%, Q4 revenue grows and raises mid-term rev. outlook), Allianz (+1.5%, reports record Q3 profit), Rolls Royce (+2.3%, announced GBP 1.5bln share buyback), Persimmon (+5%, generally positive trading update and optimism surrounding 2027). US equity futures are trading in the red, with underperformance in the NQ, pressured by losses in Nvidia (see above). Focus ahead will be on the potential Huang removal, and also on a slew of Fed speak, where markets will look to see whether any more policymakers show openness to a larger 50bps hike in December. NVIDIA (NVDA) is reportedly preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang, according to WSJ. Board is preparing to meet today to determine Jensen Huang's future. US President Trump's administration is aware that NVIDIA's (NVDA) board of directors is preparing to oust Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, very soon, according to CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs. Some NVIDIA (NVDA) directors favour CFO Kress as interim CEO, according to Semafor. White House said it isn't intervening in NVIDIA (NVDA) board's decision, according to Washington Post. Top Democrats target Trump administration's Nvidia (NVDA)-China records, with Senators Warren and Coons asking for documents to be preserved, which is often the initial step before formal congressional investigations, according to WSJ. Alleged Chinese spy in the NVIDIA (NVDA) scandal Alice Huang is reportedly in China and is living in Beijing with the knowledge of security officials, according to Bloomberg. NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang is said to have had a relationship with an NVIDIA executive, according to NYT. US President Trump on Thursday authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia's (NVDA) advanced AI chips to China, reported Axios citing sources. Trump-approved curb on AI chips to China is yet to happen. Fox's Gasparino, on Nvidia (NVDA), posted "The solution, unfortunately, is for shareholders to get screwed more in the short run before someone smart rights the old ship, which might make what we are seeing now a buying opportunity for $NVDA". Citrini's Jukan said that "One thing I’ve been able to confirm is that NVIDIA's (NVDA) Rubin has been delayed again. I’m told motherboard warpage caused the latest delay and that the HBM issue was resolved in October". As a result, volume shipments of Rubin have slipped to 2027, and I’m told NVIDIA has increased its Blackwell orders in the meantime.FXSnapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The typical havens (CHF & JPY) hold towards the top of the pile, whilst the Antipodeans lag a touch, amidst the somewhat subdued risk tone. European equities are mostly firmer, though APAC stocks were mostly subdued and US equity futures point to a negative open, with sentiment driven lower by reports of a potential ousting of Nvidia CEO Huang.DXY briefly topped the 103.00 mark in the morning, but since scaled back towards the bottom end of a 102.82-103.08 range. The print above 103.00 allowed the index to trade back to levels not seen since April 2025. For the USD today there will be two key risk events; firstly, the potential removal of Nvidia CEO Huang, which may act as a USD-negative event, if a tech sell-off is sparked. Perhaps more pertinent will be a slew of Fed speak dotted throughout the day. Traders will be looking out for any indication of the policymakers’ openness to a larger 50bps hike in December, as suggested by the influential Waller. If one were to guess, any indication of a larger move would likely come via Hammack (dissented at the Oct confab), with fellow-hawks Barr and Schmid also a risk.USD/JPY sits firmly above the 159.00 mark, holding within a 159.47-159.95 range. Recent strength in the pair came after the hawkish comments made by the Fed’s Waller and the subsequent hotter-than-expected US CPI report. As mentioned in the European Market Wrap yesterday, the recent surge would likely spur some jawboning from Japanese officials, but likely to no avail.This in fact did occur; Japan’s Top FX diplomat Mimura mentioned that recent currency moves are too fast, but ultimately failed to move the pair at the time. Given that this latest move is fundamentally driven by widening yield differentials, any attempts to talk up the JPY will likely be ignored by markets. More aggressive signals of imminent intervention, rate checks or physical intervention itself would likely be required by the Japanese side to achieve a downturn in USD/JPY. Aside from FX, BoJ’s Asada (dove) stated that they need to watch downside economic risks and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes.Japan top FX diplomat Mimura said recent currency moves are too fast.Central BanksBoJ Board Member Asada said consumer spending is not strong enough to drive the economy. Must be mindful of expected impact of past rate hikes on the economy and that financial conditions remain accommodative, while he added that they need to watch downside economy risks from rate hikes.France signalled it may support Spain's ECB President candidate de Cos to succeed Lagarde, according to FT.RBNZ said its reverse stress tests demonstrate resilience in insurers and improves risk management.PBoC injected CNY 384bln in overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.Fixed IncomeA modestly bullish start for fixed, in a bit of a rebound from the continued pressure seen on Wednesday and as the downside in the energy space on a potential Vance-Rezaei meeting helps.A bit of weakness was seen in the early European morning on the IRGC reporting that two oil-carrying vessels were subject to “explosions” in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the tally of such incidents from recent sessions. However, this has not changed the narrative with energy still lower, and fixed firmer given that and ongoing AI/Tech concerns around Nvidia, NQ -1.0% at most.USTs firmer by a handful of ticks, just off best in 106-00 to 106-09+ confines, just above Wednesday’s peak but essentially a point away from pre-Waller/CPI trade. Today, the docket is packed with Fed speakers who will all be scrutinised for insight around December and whether they also see 50bps as an option post-CPI. Thereafter, on Friday, PPI will inform the debate and firm up PCE expectations.Bunds and Gilts broadly in-fitting, bid by about 10-20 ticks and in familiar ranges. Specifics are somewhat light. No real move to the UK’s Q3/September GDP series, as while firm services continue to do the heavy lifting, some priors were revised lower. Overall, it factors somewhat in favour of those who support a back-to-back December hike by the BoE.Italy sold EUR 5.25bln vs exp. EUR 5-5.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 BTP & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 4.10% 2046 BTP Green.UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.52x (prev. 3.4x), average yield 4.993% (prev. 4.761%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.67x (prev. 3.56x), average yield 2.186% (prev. 2.379%). Lowest accepted price 100.04 (prev. 100.07). Weighted average price 100.06 (prev. 100.09). Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.02).Australia sold AUD 100mln in 1.25% 2040 indexed bonds, avg. yield 2.9752%, b/c 3.50.CommoditiesEnergy on the back foot amid a WSJ report that US VP Vance could meet with Iran’s Rezaei. However, energy lifted off lows after the IRGC announced that two oil carrying vessels were subject to “explosions” within the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the tally of such incidents from recent sessions.Following that IRGC update, Brent Jan’27 hit a USD 93.94/bbl peak for the session, modestly firmer at that point but still essentially a dollar away from the Wednesday peak. Since, that move has unwound with focus back on the mediation efforts. As such, Brent is now just below USD 92/bbl, lower by around a dollar on the session.Dutch TTF bid, as the US envoys’ meeting with Russian President Putin approaches, and the commentary from Russia is not constructive/favourable with respect to Europe. Additionally, the Starshield system Ukraine relies on has seemingly had its speed curbed once again, a particularly notable intervention given the US-Russia meeting today. Further, the region’s weather models have turned colder again and the mild turn some showed on Wednesday has now largely been removed.Dutch TTF above EUR 90/MWh at best, firmer by over three Euros on the day.Spot gold hit by the ongoing USD strength and fixed income serving as the ‘haven’ amid the ongoing Nvidia/NQ pressure. XAU failed to hold the USD 4k/oz mark early on, and has since been gradually falling with the European risk tone constructive and while there remains clear US pressure, it is concentrated and not to the benefit of the precious metal.Base peers in the red, hit by the APAC pressure as the Nvidia board meeting began, with the potential loss of Huang a blow to the entire AI ecosystem. 3M LME Copper is off by under a percent, holding just below USD 13.7k.ASEAN is to begin a joint stockpile of petroleum products, according to Nikkei.Exxon (XOM) is assessing seven areas in Venezuela for potential energy projects, according to Reuters.Trade/TariffsUS Senator Cotton reportedly urges Commerce Secretary Lutnick to add Chinese memory maker CXMT (688825 CH) to the ban list, CNBC reported.Some Democrats are reportedly pushing to keep the US House’s China committee, Semafor reported.China's Commerce Minister exchanged views on electric vehicles with the UK Trade Minister.Chinese AI firms are rushing to secure more NVIDIA (NVDA)-powered computing capacity at overseas data centres and are concerned the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips, according to sources.EU and UK are poised to delay a 10% tariff on electric cars amid concerns it would make them more vulnerable against Chinese competition, according to FT.US Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed US President Trump's upcoming trip to China.Geopolitics: IranIRGC said there were explosions affecting two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; "Both vessels were super tankers carrying in total more than 4 million barrels of oil, which are now burning in the fire of trust in the plundering and aggressive US Army."Ambrey said a merchant vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 14 NM off UAE's Ras Al Khaimah on Wednesday.Iran's Press TV states that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on maritime traffic through the Strait, while Iran said 7 conditions must be met for talks and Hormuz reopening, according to Press TV.Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said the US falsely portrays itself as a victim of Iranian terrorism, while he accused the US of war crimes and state terrorism, according to ISNA.Geopolitics: UkraineRussian Official Ryabkov urges avoiding uncontrolled escalation after negotiations.Russian President Putin is reportedly to speak with the US envoys at around 09:00GMT.Romania's President offered to pay the US to keep its troops stationed in the country amid security concerns due to Russian drone incursions, according to FT.Russian forces hit energy facilities and a military storage site in the Kyiv region, while it also struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel, according to Russia's Defence Ministry.South Korea's Presidential Office said South Korea anticipates progress on Ukraine issues after productive talks in Paris, while it added that the possibility of US-North Korea contact around APEC appears low. South Korea's President Lee will visit Philippines and China between November 16th-19th and attend the APEC Summit in Shenzhen on November 18th-19th.US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi agreed on the importance of leader-level conversations to advance goals such as peace and denuclearisation, including in any trilateral summit with Russia.Geopolitics: OtherSaudi-led coalition said that a drone was intercepted and destroyed in the Riyadh region.Chinese President Xi said resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland is an unwavering historical mission of the Chinese Communist Party. We will leave no room for Taiwan independence separatist activities in any form. We will fully consider the realities in Taiwan and take into account the interests and sentiments of Taiwan compatriots.Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they would not wait for permission to take action against Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, or the West Bank; decision making is up to PM Netanyahu's cabinet.Israeli military said it struck a senior Hamas figure and other militants at Nasser Hospital in Gaza's Khan Yunis.Israeli bombing targets Nasser Medical Complex west of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.Saudi Civil Defence said Houthi missiles were intercepted and debris fell in Mecca region.CryptoBitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 74k; Ethereum also off by around a percent, and trades just above USD 2k.US Event Calendar8:30am: Nov. 7 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 194k, prior 189k8:30am: Oct. 31 Continuing Claims, est. 1710k, prior 1718k10:00am: Oct. Existing Home Sales, est. 3.85m, prior 3.99m10:00am: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.5%, prior 1.5%11:30am: US to sell $110 billion of 8-week bills and $115 billion of 4-week bills12:00pm: EIA weekly oil inventories (delayed by holiday)1:00pm: US to sell $25 billion of 30-year bonds and $75 billion of 17-week bills2:00pm: Oct. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$317.5b, prior -$284.3bCentral Bank Speakers9:00am: Fed's Hammack Speaks in Moderated Conversation10:00am: Fed's Barr Delivers Virtual Address on AI and Inequality11:15am: Fed's Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A at Yahoo! Finance1:10pm: Fed's Daly Delivers Keynote Remarks at Stanford1:30pm: Fed's Schmid Speaks on Fed and the Economic Outlook6:30pm: Fed's Williams Participates in Panel DiscussionDB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrapMy favourite guilty pleasure returned last night, namely the TV show "Rivals". If you think real life has in recent times bordered on crazy, then feel free to watch this as you'll end up feeling a bit better about the sanity of the current world and get some great 1980s music and some garish clothes thrown in for free. The crazy whipsawing post midterms continued yesterday as after the post-CPI selloff on Tuesday, markets bounced back again over the last 24 hours, as the positive momentum from CoreWeave’s (+24.71%) earnings drove a sharp rally in tech stocks. So the Philly semiconductor index (+5.66%) helped drive the S&P 500 (+1.31%) back above its levels before the midterm elections. Who said markets didn't always go up after midterms! And over in Europe, both the STOXX 600 (+0.72%) and the DAX (+1.20%) moved up to fresh records. However, the current volatility in the tech trade continues this morning as the WSJ reported after the US closing bell that the Nvidia board are planning to oust CEO Jensen Huang after the last few days of stories around him have surfaced. Their stock fell -8.6% in after-hours trading, which has pushed Nasdaq (-1.09%) and S&P (-0.45%) lower. So a big deal for one of the largest companies in the world.This is also impacting Asian equity markets with the Kospi (-1.04%), Hang Seng (-0.86%) and Nikkei (-0.78%) all notably lower as I type this morning. The Shanghai Comp is -0.22%. European futures have maintained their gains overnight though with DAX futures +0.66% as I type, which hints at some rotation after the latest Nvidia story.Before the overnight news the AI trade was firmly back in action yesterday after CoreWeave’s earnings on Tuesday night. Its share price (+24.71%) saw its biggest daily jump since June 2025, a few months after its IPO, although it remains around -45% below August levels. CoreWeave has often been viewed as a bellwether of the AI trade, given the company’s significantly heavy debt burden and capital-intensive model of building data centres and leasing them out to major AI customers and hyperscalers.Those upbeat earnings from CoreWeave were a boon for tech and chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Stock Exchange up +5.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) also climbed. So with tech stocks rallying, that lifted the S&P 500 (+1.31%) above its levels before the midterm election results. European equities followed a similar pattern, with gains led by the DAX (+1.20%), while the FTSE 100 (+0.78%), STOXX 600 (+0.72%) and CAC 40 (+0.66%) also advanced. In fact, the Stoxx 600 reached a record high for the first time since August.Whilst US Treasury markets were closed yesterday, the hawkish implications from the CPI print continued to be felt in futures pricing yesterday. Indeed, Fed funds futures continued to shift in a hawkish direction, with pricing for the December meeting edging up to 28.5bps. And further out the curve, expectations for the September 2027 meeting surged another +7bps to 82bps, although that’s edged back down to 77bps overnight. The prospect of a more hawkish Fed helped push the dollar index (+0.66%) to its highest level since April 2025. Conversely, that also saw the euro (-0.66%) reach an 18-month low against the dollar, closing at around $1.109.Given the US holiday, there wasn’t any fresh data or Fed commentary, so all eyes are now on the latest round of speakers today, along with tomorrow’s PPI print.Turning to the Middle East, oil prices were back up again yesterday, albeit with no obvious headline driving the moves. So after two days of consecutive declines, Brent crude rose +1.2% after being higher earlier in the session. And in turn, we saw the impact on inflation pricing, with 1yr Euro inflation swaps (+9.3bps) rising to +3.02%. So that led investors to price an increasingly hawkish ECB path as well, with the number of hikes priced in by the ECB’s July 2027 meeting up another +3bps to +63.5bps yesterday. So that meant 2yr German yields (+1.7bps) rose to 3.11%. However, there was also a fresh flattening in the yield curve, with the 10yr bund yield (-0.2bps) falling to 3.31%, alongside declines for yields on 10yr OATs (-2.1bps) and BTPs (-3.8bps). However, overnight Brent has fallen around a percent taking it back to roughly where it was this time yesterday. So a big round trip. That’s helped 10yr US yields reopen half a basis point lower this morning after the holiday.Elsewhere, focus remains on Russia-Ukraine peace efforts after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with officials citing some progress in talks despite territorial issues remaining a key sticking point. The sides agreed to a sizable prisoner exchange, while the US delegation is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss potential next steps, keeping hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough alive.Early morning data showed Japan's PPI rose a stronger-than-expected +7.1% y/y in October, up from +6.8% in September and above consensus expectations of +6.5%. The hope would be that this now declines after recent oil price falls, assuming they hold.To the day ahead now, data releases include the UK’s Q3 GDP. In the US, we’ll also get the October existing home sales and weekly initial jobless claims. A host of central bank speakers will be on the docket as well today, including the Fed’s Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams, and the ECB’s Lagarde, Vujcic and Nagel. Notable earnings include Applied Materials and Cisco. Finally, the US will also be holding a $25bn auction for its 30yr bonds.