More bombing, a nuclear strike or a peace deal: Three scenarios for the war in Iran after the midterms

President Donald Trump launched strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on the eve of the US mid-term elections, resuming a conflict with Iran that has languished in a stalemate for months. According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, several explosions were heard across the island on Monday. US officials told CBS that the attacks had been carried out and described them as limited. They claimed that the move was a response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) opening fire on a US aircraft. On Monday Trump told Axios that he was in “no rush” to restart the fighting. Recent briefings from the Pentagon had suggested that the attacks could continue after the voting had taken place. Below we look at the three ways that the US could either escalate or end the war. The Trump administration launched strikes in Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (AFP/Getty)A negotiated peace deal It is likely that discussions to end the conflict between both parties will continue, despite Trump’s recent threats. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday: “Consultations and discussions have become very intensive. We have set out our conditions and our plan, and everything depends on Washington’s political rationality – if they choose sincere diplomacy, we are ready to engage, and if they intend deception and military action, they will face a response more bitter and heavier than before.”A source close to the White House told Axios that talks “progressed positively” and that “mediators are working on bridging the gaps and remaining concerns shared by the two sides from yesterday’s meetings.”Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that vice president JD Vance had reached out to top security officials and hard-liners in Tehran. Trump said he had approved of Vance’s attempt to make contact. Abbas Araghchi said that talks had been going well (AFP/Getty)“He asked me what I thought. I said, ‘If you want to do that, that’s ok.’”More moderate members of the Trump administration will be eager to resolve the war urgently, with rising inflation and record-high gas prices affecting ordinary Americans and deepening Trump’s unpopularity ahead of the midterm elections. Major bombing campaign Trump could also opt to continue attacking Iran in a similar vein to the campaigns conducted early on in the conflict. This could include attacks on military infrastructure, energy facilities and other key targets such as suspected nuclear plants. However, this could prove costly and further push the Iranians into an even more obstinate position. It would also likely spillover into neighbouring countries, affecting both US and Iranian partners and damaging global energy markets. US senator Chris Murphy said that he had been briefed on the plan to resume bombing Iran - and called it “insane”. “Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election,” he said last week. “Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation.”Huge escalationA satellite view shows tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain, of the Natanz nuclear facility, near Natanz, Iran, June 30, 2026 (Vantor)On Monday, Tucker Carlson made the spectacular claim that Trump could be seriously considering launching nuclear strikes on Iran “within days”, under the influence of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” Carlson wrote in a post on social media. “The target would be Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program.”He did not provide any evidence of his claims but cited an “informed observer”. Pickaxe Mountain is a suspected underground facility that lies on the south side of Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment site, an is one that was bombed by the US and Israel in June 2025.Carlson claimed that conventional US weapons could not strike deep enough to hit the reported underground tunnels where nuclear enrichment is allegedly taking place. “The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. ‘Bibi calls Trump about it every day,’ says an informed observer,” he wrote.