Monsoon in trouble: Dry air from Pakistan to slowdown rain over India

Dry northwesterly winds from Pakistan and northwest India are suppressing monsoon rainfall across several regions. The pattern could deepen India's seasonal rain deficit and delay any broad revival into September.The developing weather pattern has allowed dry winds to dominate Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan. (Photo: Windy)The southwest monsoon could be heading into a difficult phase as dry northwesterly winds sweeping in from Pakistan and northwest India begin suppressing rainfall across several key regions of the country.Weather experts warn that a strengthening ridge over northwest India is disrupting the monsoon's normal progress, raising concerns about a prolonged dry spell and worsening seasonal rainfall deficits.The developing weather pattern has allowed dry winds to dominate Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan, Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh, significantly reducing moisture availability in the atmosphere.Parts of interior Maharashtra are also expected to remain largely dry through the week. Meteorologists say the situation is particularly concerning because the dry air intrusion is likely to limit the inland movement of low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal, which are the primary drivers of widespread monsoon rainfall across India. As a result, rainfall activity is expected to remain concentrated over eastern and central parts of the country. States including eastern and central Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Northeast India are forecast to receive consistent and locally heavy rainfall during the coming days.However, the uneven distribution of rain means the monsoon may struggle to recover its overall performance. While some regions continue to receive abundant rainfall, large parts of northwest and western India are likely to remain significantly drier than normal.India's cumulative seasonal rainfall currently stands at 13 percent below normal, and weather experts believe the deficit could worsen in the coming weeks. With rainfall increasingly confined to select regions, nationwide rainfall totals are expected to remain below average. Dry patch seen over parts of North India. (Photo: Windy) Forecast models also offer little encouragement for September. Long-range outlooks currently do not indicate a major monsoon revival capable of significantly reducing the seasonal deficit.The evolving pattern has sparked debate among meteorologists over whether India is entering a classic "break monsoon" phase, a period when monsoon rains weaken across much of the country, or witnessing the first signs of an early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.While it is too early to draw definitive conclusions, forecasters expect greater clarity by the end of August. Until then, the battle between moisture-laden monsoon winds and advancing dry air is likely to determine how the 2026 monsoon season ends.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Aug 18, 2026 10:39 IST