Monsoon exiting India? Limited rain over next two weeks, September to be dry

Extended-range weather models show the southwest monsoon may weaken sharply across India after early September. If that trend holds, September could turn much drier as withdrawal begins over extreme northwest India.The current model outlook suggests that such a transition may begin taking shape over extreme northwest India. (Photo: Windy)India’s southwest monsoon could be heading towards an early wind-down, with extended-range weather models indicating a sharp reduction in rainfall across large parts of the country after the first week or two of September.The outlook for the next four weeks paints a disappointing picture for rain-dependent regions. While parts of East and Northeast India may continue to receive rainfall over the next two weeks, much of the country could see increasingly subdued monsoon activity as September progresses.According to the extended-range weather models, a significant reduction in rainfall is expected over large parts of India after around September 5 to 10. The weakening could continue through the second half of the month, raising the possibility of the monsoon beginning its annual withdrawal from parts of extreme northwest India between September 10 and 20.If the forecast holds, the coming weeks could mark a dramatic shift from active monsoon conditions to a much drier weather pattern. For now, the main rain-bearing activity is expected to remain concentrated over East and Northeast India. These regions may continue to benefit from moisture and weather systems capable of producing rainfall during the next couple of weeks.Elsewhere, however, rainfall activity could become increasingly patchy.September is traditionally an important month in the monsoon season, particularly for regions that rely on late-season rainfall to make up for earlier deficits. A prolonged reduction in rain during the month could therefore have consequences for the overall seasonal rainfall performance.The southwest monsoon normally begins withdrawing from northwest India before gradually retreating across the rest of the country. The withdrawal does not happen simply because rainfall stops for a few days. It depends on a sustained weakening of rain-bearing conditions over a region and the development of conditions favourable for the monsoon circulation to retreat.The current model outlook suggests that such a transition may begin taking shape over extreme northwest India during the middle of September.However, weather models provide an evolving forecast rather than a final verdict. Any new low-pressure system or change in larger atmospheric patterns could alter the rainfall outlook.For now, though, the signal from the extended-range models is clear: India may have only a couple of weeks of meaningful monsoon rainfall left before September turns significantly drier and the annual withdrawal begins.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Aug 21, 2026 11:49 IST