MOMENT OF TRUTH: Blue landslide in US gives SA hope — but Trump still has sharp teeth

The Democratic Party’s emphatic seizure of control of both houses of the US Congress has raised hopes that South Africa will be able to restore its relations with the US that have been so badly damaged by the hostility of the Trump administration.Tuesday’s election was a stunning rebuke of President Donald Trump in particular, who hand-picked many of the defeated candidates and kept telling voters to “vote as if I am on the ballot”, which they did by kicking out scores of his acolytes and others.As of Thursday morning, 5 November, Democrats had won control of 54 seats in the 100-seat Senate and had at least 245 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, as counting continued.The once-feared leader is now the lamest of lame ducks and many commentators are saying it’s the end of the Trump era. Can South Africa seize the moment to turn back the clock of its horrible relations to before Trump came into office?President Cyril Ramaphosa seems to think so. He said this week he thought the Democratic landslide “is going to introduce a new era in world relations as the US is such a big, impactful and influential economy and possibly the change in the governorship of the Senate and the House will bring about some changes. We are always willing to have good relations with the US.”‘Utter repudiation’John Steenhuisen, the DA MP and deputy minister of trade, industry and competition, also thought the “complete and utter repudiation of Trump and his Maga movement, the biggest Republican defeat since Watergate”, had created opportunities for South Africa.“I think there’ll be a lot of people in Congress and the Senate wanting to take the opposite position than Trump did,” he said. “And I think South Africa will probably get a more sympathetic hearing from Democrats now who will be in key positions on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “That will be chaired by a Democrat now. Also, the House Ways and Means Committee will now be chaired by Democrats.Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition John Steenhuisen speaking during the Manufacturing Indaba at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg on 14 July 2026. (Photo: Steven Booth / Manufacturing Indaba) “I think that there are now opportunities in the House and Senate that will open up for us to be able to start to deal with some of these falsehoods that have been peddled about South Africa in those committees.”Bob Wekesa, director of the African Centre for the Study of the US at Wits University, agreed that the Democratic blue wave – many are calling it a tsunami – was “great news” for South Africa.He thought that with skilful diplomacy South Africa had at least a credible chance of leveraging the Democratic majority to rescind the decision of the Trump administration this week to remove South Africa from its preferential access to the US market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).The legislation requires the administration to give a country 60 days’ notice of Washington’s intention to remove it from Agoa, so South Africa has until early January to try to reverse the decision.In a joint statement on 4 November, senior Democrats Gregory Meeks, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and senator Jeanne Shaheen, his counterpart on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, condemned the decision. They said the Trump administration had prioritised “political spectacle and disputed narratives” over US strategic interests, warning that removing South Africa from Agoa risked handing China a strategic advantage.Still the president’s decisionHowever, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, national director of the SA Institute of International Affairs, cautioned that although Agoa was a law passed by Congress, decisions about which African countries were eligible to enjoy its benefits lay with the president, making it unlikely that any appeal by Pretoria against South Africa’s removal would succeed.Joshua Meservey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, agreed, saying: “Congress established Agoa, but it gives the president authority for determining eligibility. So, he will still have the final say on South Africa’s eligibility.”Steenhuisen suggested it was time for South Africa to stop its constant worrying about being in or out of Agoa and to negotiate instead a conventional reciprocal free trade agreement with the US (which would not be at the whim of the US president).“Particularly for agriculture and manufacturing, you need to be able to plan. And this uncertainty is unhelpful,” he said.Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau engages with members of the National Economic Development and Labour Council about Agoa on 29 October 2026 in Rosebank, Johannesburg. (Photo: Luba Lesolle / Gallo Images) This week, Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau noted that “Agoa remains important to South Africa, but it does not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the US”.He said that about 10% of South African exports to the US entered under Agoa in 2025, down from 28% in 2024. Agoa exports were valued at about $1.7-billion in 2025, down from $4-billion in 2024.Agoa exports are about 1% of South Africa’s total global exports.Targeting tariffsSome analysts saw the victory of the ­Democrats this week as offering the possibility of reducing other US trade tariffs on South Africa as Congress has more power over tariffs. One Washington-based Africa expert, who did not want to be named, said: “The executive branch continues to be the dominant authority on US foreign policy. So, correcting specific policy actions, like re-including South Africa in Agoa, may not be something Congress can immediately remedy.“However, Congress will likely be able to regain control over tariffs, which could lead to a reduction in the tariff barriers that South Africa is facing. This, in turn, may facilitate a broader review of US-SA relations that leads to further cooperation.”The Africa Report noted this week that House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York – who is now likely to become the House Speaker – has also said that overturning Trump’s tariffs would be a top ­priority of Democrats in their first 100 days. “Democrats argue that the tariffs do little but raise the cost of living for American consumers,” the journal said.It also noted that a Democratic Congress was likely to pursue a long-term renewal of Agoa, which expires in December 2028. In fact, Agoa also enjoys the support of many Republicans in Congress.Steenhuisen agreed that the Democrats were likely to tackle Trump’s tariffs – “of which South Africa was on the receiving end” – especially as they had driven up the cost of living in the US, which had been the main reason for the Republicans’ losses.“Even Republicans who return after this are going to be somewhat chastened in terms of slavishly following the Trump agenda,” he said.Many would want to distance themselves from Trump, having seen the impact of his tariffs and other policies on their party’s electoral fortunes. And he hoped that, having seen the impact of Trump’s tariff regime on their cost of living, Americans would take a more mature approach to trade and show a greater appreciation of the “excellent, quality products, at a very good price” that South Africa offered.Steenhuisen said the Trump administration’s cuts of aid and especially the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief were now back on the table.“And I think it’s a lot more difficult for countries to be bullied by the US now with a Congress and Senate that are outside the hands of the person who wants to wield these weapons,” he said. US representative Gregory Meeks during a roundtable discussion with the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the Rayburn House office building on 12 February 2025 in Washington, DC. (File photo: Kayla Bartkowski / Getty Images) The Africa Report also said Democrats had vowed to oppose Trump’s decision to restrict refugee admissions to white South African Afrikaners, with Meeks saying “it’s not just a racist dog whistle, it’s a politically motivated rewrite of history”.Not all rosyHowever, some have cautioned that the Democrats are not fully behind South Africa either, though their concerns relate to its foreign policy rather than its domestic ­policies. Meservey noted that US concern about South Africa’s non-non-alignment was bipartisan.“The US first publicly expressed its concern through President [Joe] Biden’s appointee, ambassador Reuben Brigety. South Africa has become a more partisan issue since then, but I don’t believe that all Democratic concerns have simply vanished.”In November 2023, Democratic senator Chris Coons, otherwise friendly to South Africa, proposed that the country’s eligibility for Agoa should be reviewed because of its failure to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Coons is tipped to become chairperson of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the new Congress.Wekesa also noted that even Democrats have concerns about some of South Africa’s friends, particularly China, which they regard as an “existential threat”.And Meservey observed that the US president still has great authority over foreign policy generally. “So the conduct of the Iran conflict will still heavily rely on his decisions, though Congress can try to strangle funding for it.”If Trump decides to renew his attacks on Iran and Tehran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, South Africa will feel the impact on oil prices along with the rest of the world.Blow to ‘Afri-Magas’Steenhuisen said the rout of Trump and his followers had also been a major blow to the “Afri-Magas” – right-wingers such as AfriForum who are like-minded with Trump – “because the politics of division and hate have been rejected overwhelmingly”.He went on: “These are the very people that they’ve been lobbying to give South Africa a hard time. They will now fade into lack of influence in Washington, because it’ll be Democrats chairing committees now.”Ernst Roets, executive director of Lex Libertas, speaks outside the American Embassy in Pretoria on 11 September 2025 during an event in honour of the slain right-wing political activist Charlie Kirk. (File photo: Deaan Vivier / Beeld / Gallo Images) Ernst Roets, executive director of the right-wing movement Lex Libertas, dis­agreed with Steenhuisen. He said people were celebrating the US election result as a setback for Lex Libertas, “particularly in light of our recent White Cross Project in Washington”. In September, Lex Libertas erected 3,000 white crosses on the National Mall in Washington, each bearing the name of a person identified as being the victim of a farm attack in South Africa.“The Trump administration is playing a significant role in drawing international attention to the crisis in South Africa… We believe that this will continue, firstly because Trump is still the president, and secondly because even the Democrats are frustrated by the South African government’s reckless conduct,” Roets said.Kallie Kriel, CEO of AfriForum, said “the impact of the elections on US-South Africa relations over the next two years is likely to be limited” as foreign policy remained largely the responsibility of the executive branch.This also meant that, unfortunately, South Africa would not be readmitted to Agoa, “as this remains a presidential prerogative”.The angry Trump threatOne of the overarching unknowns about the ever-unpredictable Trump is how the major defeat for his party and in particular his handpicked candidates will affect his foreign policy in his last two years.Steenhuisen said his one warning would be that “given that Trump is now a lame duck domestically, given the fact that he no longer controls the House and Senate, he may retreat into those areas where he has presidential power…“One of two things is going to happen. Either he’s going to pivot more domestically to try to resuscitate the Republican Party’s chances … at the next presidential election, or he is going to double down on his international agenda where he’s far less constrained by Congress and Senate. And that means more scrutiny for South Africa.”US President Donald Trump walks to a motorcade at the White House in Washington, DC, on 28 October 2026. He was travelling to a midterm election rally in Chillicothe, Ohio, where he stumped for Republicans Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy, both of whom lost to Democrats. (Photo: Shawn Thew / Pool / EPA) Wekesa said he believed Trump as a lame-duck president unable to pass legislation would turn away from foreign policy to focus on repairing the Republican Party.But in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine this week, political scientists Daniel W Drezner of Tufts University and Elizabeth N Saunders of Columbia University raise the alarm about a likely dangerous foreign adventure by Trump. They write: “As they think about their legacy, lame ducks often turn to foreign policy, where the power of the presidency allows them to act unfettered by pesky domestic politics.”They noted that Bill Clinton had put great effort into trying to resolve the Middle East conflict at the end of his presidency.“With Democrats soon to be in control of the House and the Senate, the threat of impeachment or investigations into the Trump family’s business dealings will likely make the president feel cornered and angry.“And that’s what makes the remainder of Trump’s term so dangerous. A boxed-in Trump, with no obvious constructive foreign policy outlet to channel his energy, may well lash out internationally. And Congress, even if controlled by Democrats, will have little power over his day-to-day management of foreign policy.”They did not mention South Africa, but the danger is that any or all of Trump’s pet hates – and we are one of them – could bear the brunt of what Sidiropoulos suggested to Eyewitness News this week might be an “angry duck” rather than a lame duck. DMThis story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R39. The e-edition of Daily Maverick’s weekly newspaper, DM168, is now free for readers who are signed into their Daily Maverick account. Click here to access the latest e-edition.