Millions of new skilled workers are needed – vocational GCSEs could help prepare them

Vocational education is coming back into the classroom. The government has announced a new generation of vocational GCSEs, allowing teenagers in England to study subjects such as building and construction, digital technology, creative media production, child development and business and finance alongside the traditional academic curriculum. The qualifications, which could be available in some subjects from September 2029, will eventually replace existing technical awards. English, maths and science will remain part of the common academic core. The government also wants businesses to provide another 200,000 work experience placements for 14- to 16-year-olds. There are good educational arguments for giving young people greater choice between different forms of learning. But there is an equally important economic argument. Three fundamental changes are transforming the British labour market: demographics, the green economy and AI. All three make vocational expertise increasingly valuable. As I argue in my forthcoming book, Skilled: How to Master the Changing World of Work, preparing for an uncertain future is less about predicting which jobs will survive than developing skills that allow people to adapt as work changes. An ageing workforce, the green transition and AI are very different forces. Yet all three point towards the importance of deep, applicable expertise. Young people who develop skills that complement these changes, whether exercised with a computer or with their hands, will be well placed to prosper in the future of work. Skilled workers are ageing The UK is getting older, and a large generation of experienced workers is approaching retirement. More than 6 million people aged 55 to 64 are still in employment in the UK. Over the coming decade, millions of these older workers will leave the labour market. This represents more than a demographic change. It is a potential loss of practical expertise. According to my calculations, around 2.4 million older workers in the UK approaching retirement currently work predominantly with their hands. Number of workers from the Baby Boomer generation in manual occupations, in millions. Fabian Stephany, Skilled: How to Master the Changing World of Work When an experienced electrician, mechanic, construction worker or technician retires, their skills cannot simply be replaced by an algorithm or acquired from a textbook. They have accumulated tacit knowledge: knowing how to diagnose problems, operate equipment and respond when something unexpected happens. The UK is not alone. Germany faces an even more pronounced transition, with 13.3 million economically active people expected to pass the country’s statutory retirement age by 2040. If too few younger workers acquire the skills of those leaving, the consequence will not simply be slower economic growth. Parts of the economy and society may struggle to function. The green economy needs hands The second transformation is the greening of the economy. Discussions about green growth often focus on technologies: solar panels, electric vehicles, heat pumps and energy-efficient buildings. But technologies do not install themselves. Every solar panel needs fitting. Every heat pump needs installing and maintaining. Buildings need retrofitting, and electric vehicles require new infrastructure. Our research into emerging green occupations illustrates how physical this transition remains. In jobs such as electric-vehicle electricians and heat-pump installers, we estimate that between 63% and 83% of work activities involve manual tasks. Manual skills required in different types of employment. Fabian Stephany, Skilled: How to Master the Changing World of Work The green transition is therefore not only an environmental project. It can become an important source of economic growth and employment – but only if countries have enough people capable of implementing it. A shortage of vocational skills could become a bottleneck to decarbonisation. Training young people in practical occupations is not an alternative to investing in green technology. It is one of the conditions required to make those investments work. AI rewards expertise The third transformation may initially appear to point in the opposite direction: artificial intelligence. Generative AI can already perform many tasks involving writing, analysis, coding and information processing. Current AI systems have much less reach into work requiring physical dexterity and interaction with unpredictable real-world environments. Many manual occupations are therefore less directly exposed to AI than non-manual ones. But there is a broader lesson that applies to both. Technology is particularly powerful at automating repetitive tasks. As these become easier to delegate to machines, expertise becomes increasingly important for dealing with the difficult cases that remain. Our research finds precisely this pattern: expertise can become more valuable, not less, when people work alongside AI. AI can provide an answer, but humans still need sufficient knowledge to ask the right questions, judge its output and recognise when something has gone wrong. Developing expertise early therefore matters whether someone ultimately becomes an electrician, engineer, designer or data scientist. This also shortens the pathway from novice to expert and makes young workers less exposed to firms’ short-term temptations of replacing inexperienced workers with AI. Nobody knows exactly what the labour market will look like in 20 years. Today we are talking about generative AI; tomorrow another technology may dominate the debate. But some old certainties are already crumbling. One is the implicit hierarchy that has often placed academic education above vocational education.