Midterms, in maps and charts: What’s at stake this Tuesday and where Trump stands

This Tuesday, November 3, U.S. voters will head to the polls in the midterm elections, which will determine whether Donald Trump’s Republicans retain a friendly Congress or whether Democrats gain control of one or both chambers. Such an outcome would allow the Democrats to mount a more aggressive opposition by blocking legislation, budgets and appointments during the final two years of his term. Polls show that only 37% of U.S. voters approve of Trump and surveys suggest Democrats are on track to win control of both the House and the Senate. That is hardly surprising: midterm elections have historically tended to punish the party of the incumbent.Republicans are entering the midterms with razor-thin majorities. In the House of Representatives, a loss of just four seats would cost them control. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the chamber, with several of those key races taking place in states that Trump won in 2024. Voters will also elect governors in 36 states.The maps below show the state of play in the House, the Senate and the governors’ races: the current balance of power and what is at stake.The House: Democrats hope to win back controlThe House of Representatives is often seen as the country’s political barometer. All 435 seats are up for election every two years, and 218 are needed for a majority. Republicans currently hold only a narrow advantage, and a swing of four seats would be enough for Democrats to regain control of the chamber.History is on their side. Since World War II, the party of the incumbent has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections, by an average of about 27 seats, although Joe Biden’s Democrats suffered an unusually small setback in 2022.There are currently two vacant seats, Florida’s 20th District and Texas’s 23rd District, both left open by resignations in 2026 and awaiting special elections.This map shows the House exactly as it stands today, before November’s full election cycle: all 435 congressional districts with their current boundaries. The color of each district indicates the party that currently holds the seat, while districts shown in gray are vacant.Democrats are favored to win the House. An average of 29 polls gives them 51% support in the race for the chamber, 8.4 percentage points ahead of Republicans, who stand at 42.5%.The Senate: A tighter, still undecided raceThe Senate helps set the pace in Washington: it confirms judges and senior officials and can either advance or block a president’s agenda. Republicans currently hold the majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back control. Only 35 of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for election this year, one-third of the Senate plus two special elections in Florida and Ohio, and several of the most competitive races are taking place in states that voted for Trump.Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate does not always move in step with the national midterm mood. In 2018, for example, Trump’s Republicans gained Senate seats even as they lost control of the House. On November 3, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia and Michigan, two states that Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election.This map shows the Senate as it is currently composed. Each state is represented by two senators, and the color indicates which party currently holds those seats: blue for Democrats and red for Republicans.Click on the tab to see which states are electing senators this November.At this point, Democrats are on track to pick up seats in five states currently represented by Republican senators. While some of them, such as Maine and North Carolina, are long-established battleground states, others, including Ohio, Texas and Alaska, have been Republican strongholds for decades but have unexpectedly become competitive this cycle.Governors’ races: Republicans defend key territoryVoters in 36 states will elect governors this year. Unlike Congress, there is no national threshold for control, but gubernatorial races shape policies on issues such as abortion, voting rights, immigration and education, with a more immediate impact on daily life than federal legislation.In many states, voters will also choose members of state legislatures and decide a host of local races, from city councils and school boards to district attorneys. Together, these offices influence taxes, education, policing and civil rights just as directly as governors do.Among the governorships up for election this year, the balance is even: 18 are currently held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. As in Congress, midterm elections often punish the president’s party at the state level. In 2010 and 2014, Republicans expanded their control of governors’ mansions across the country. In 2018, Democrats regained several key governorships, including in Michigan, Kansas and Maine.Nationwide, Republicans currently hold 27 governorships to Democrats’ 23. With 36 seats on the ballot this year, the midterms could once again reshape the political map of the states.Governors do not form a federal chamber, but a map of who governs each state offers a snapshot of political power across the country.This map shows the party affiliation of the current governor in all 50 states. Use the toggle to highlight the 36 governorships that are up for election in 2026.Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition