Midterms House poll tracker: The 10 races you need to know about

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November's midterm elections.Republicans will go into the 2026 midterms with 219 members caucusing with them in the chamber. That is a single seat more than the minimum required for a majority when all seats are filled. The House has 214 Democrats, along with two vacancies.History suggests Democrats will pick up seats. Holding such a slim majority could be tough for Republicans in a midterm year, when voters tend to vote against the party in the White House. Republicans have also kick-started a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats' path to a majority slightly more difficult.History suggests Democrats will pick up seats. Holding such a slim majority could be tough for Republicans in a midterm year, when voters tend to vote against the party in the White House (AP)Nine states have undergone redistricting ahead of the 2026 general election. Voters in all 435 congressional districts choose their representatives in the U.S. House every two years. Each party's path to a House majority starts with the low-hanging fruit: seats that consistently favor one side so heavily that it isn't worth the opposition trying to compete.Democrats' path to dismantling the GOP majority depends on flipping the districts where they believe Republicans are most vulnerable. Republicans' path depends on defending the seats they already represent and ousting Democrats running in Republican-leaning territory.The backdrop to the vote is that President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. Trump's policies have driven up diesel and fertilizer prices, as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle.Here's how to look at the places that are most likely to determine who gets to 218.High-profile visits and millions in outside cash fuel fierce battle for Gabe Evans' razor-thin Colorado seatA high-stakes brawl for a razor-thin Colorado congressional seat is getting bloody, with millions in outside cash pouring in and attacks flying over college-era vegan stunts and red-meat politics.Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel has emerged as a fundraising juggernaut, out-raising freshman Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s battleground 8th Congressional District — a heavily Hispanic corridor Donald Trump carried by a razor-thin 1.8 percentage points in 2024. A mail-in ballot, showing a vote for Manny Rutinel for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, is prepped for counting at the Adams County Elections Division, in Brighton, Colorado (Reuters)Evans is fighting back with scorched-earth attacks, painting Rutinel — a progressive former state lawmaker who took down a moderate in his party's primary — as a radical socialist who's out of touch with everyday voters. In a bid to frame the showdown as "common sense" versus "crazy," Evans recently took to social media to blast a vintage photo of Rutinel demonstrating against the meat industry during his college days. The attack has ignited a bizarre proxy war over livestock and ranching in a district known as Colorado's agricultural heartland, prompting Rutinel to hit back with local taco-truck stops to prove his carnivorous credentials. Sensing a prime opportunity to flip the seat, Democratic heavy hitters are going all in. Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and members of Colorado’s Democratic congressional delegation stormed the trail alongside Rutinel last week to drum up turnout.Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel has emerged as a fundraising juggernaut, out-raising freshman Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, shown here, in Colorado’s battleground 8th Congressional District (Getty)The airwaves have become a nonstop slugfest: Outside groups tied to Democrats have dumped $14 million into the district, narrowly outgunning $13 million spent by Republican outfits looking to save Evans' seat on the eve of voting.Jared Moskowitz's fundraising edge keeps South Florida seat competitive despite GOP mapmakers’ best efforts A brazen Republican scheme to slice and dice Florida’s congressional map is crashing into a wall of Democratic resistance, turning what was supposed to be an easy four-seat GOP power grab into a $40 million slugfest.Tallahassee Republicans went for the jugular when they carved up districts held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The aggressive redraw paid off immediately in Soto’s territory, which Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 points — a margin that could prove lethal to the incumbent’s reelection hopes.Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) speaks during a news conference on "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena" (UAP) outside of the U.S. Capitol Building (Getty)Yet GOP mapmakers may have bitten off more than they can chew. Democrats have refused to roll over in districts Trump won by 9 to 10 points, triggering a high-stakes dogfight in South Florida's newly configured battleground, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is fighting tooth and nail to fend off former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer. Tensions exploded into the open last week during a candidate forum where Singer repeatedly slammed Moskowitz as a coward for refusing to face him in a televised debate.Moskowitz isn’t backing down, leaning on a staggering $2.5 million personal fundraising advantage to blanket the airwaves and blunt the GOP's territorial push. Deep-pocketed outside groups on both sides of the aisle have matched each other dollar for dollar, dumping an eye-watering $20 million each into the district — transforming a supposed Republican victory lap into an all-out trench war on the eve of the midterms.Backed by an $11 million spending edge, Democrat Christina Bohannan aims to flip Mariannette Miller-Meeks' rural Iowa seatSkyrocketing fuel and fertilizer prices have turned a familiar Iowa grudge match into a perilous high-stakes brawl for Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the eve of midterm voting.Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, a former state lawmaker who came up short against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024, is betting the third time will be the charm as economic misery ravages the state’s agricultural heartland. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, speaks during a campaign rally at the Five Flags Event Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Dubuque (AP)The battlefield shifted dramatically after President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and military strikes on Iran triggered an inflation crisis at the pump and in the field. With national diesel prices spiking to about $6.33 a gallon and regular unleaded hitting $4.23, according to AAA, everyday affordability has replaced partisan loyalty as voters’ top midterm anxiety.Miller-Meeks scrambled to shore up her rural firewall last week, parading officials from the U.S. Department of Agriculture across a district where farms make up nearly a third of the constituency.The political optics handed Bohannan an immediate opening: The challenger seized on the federal visits to frame the race as “Iowa vs. Washington,” hammering the incumbent as a creature of the beltway while farmers struggle to stay in the black.Democrats sense blood in the water. Leaning into a massive air-game edge, Democratic groups have dumped $11 million into the rural battleground to drown out $7 million from Republicans — pushing Miller-Meeks to the brink in one of the Midwest's most volatile House showdowns.Jared Golden's retirement gives Republicans a prime flip opportunity as Paul LePage and Matt Dunlap battle in rural MaineA fight for Maine’s sprawling 2nd Congressional District has turned into a bare-knuckle clash between political royalty and a scrappy state auditor, with $20 million in outside cash flooding the airwaves on the eve of the midterms.The exit of centrist Democratic Rep. Jared Golden blew the doors wide open for the GOP in a rural district Donald Trump carried by 9 points in 2024. Now, combative former two-term Gov. Paul LePage is mounting a fiery comeback bid against progressive Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap to flip the seat red.Combative former two-term Gov. Paul LePage is mounting a fiery comeback bid against progressive Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap to flip the seat red (Getty)The race has quickly descended into a nasty war over attendance sheets and pocketbooks. Dunlap has relentlessly pounded LePage as a ghost candidate, warning voters the former governor won't show up for them in Washington after blowing off local forums. Dunlap boasts he has held town halls across every county in the district, while claiming LePage hasn't held a single one.LePage has brushed off the carpet-bombing and gone straight for the jugular on the cost of living. At a testy debate, the conservative populist laid down a blunt ultimatum: a vote for Dunlap means paying more for everything, while backing him means paying less.Outside spending groups are treating the open battleground like ground zero, dumping roughly $10 million on each side to blanket the state with attack ads. While nonpartisan forecasters still rate the race as "lean Republican," both parties are bracing for a wire-to-wire finish as Maine's notoriously independent voters head to the polls.Smokejumper Sam Forstag threatens GOP hold on open Montana seat despite Trump and Vance backingA parachute-landing wildfire fighter is giving national Republicans serious heartburn in western Montana, threatening what looked like an open-and-shut hold in the heart of conservative country.With former Rep. Ryan Zinke stepping aside in a territory Donald Trump locked down by nearly a dozen points two years ago, the GOP tapped combat veteran Aaron Flint to defend the perimeter. But Democrat Sam Forstag, a union organizer who literally leaps out of airplanes into forest infernos as an elite smokejumper, is setting the campaign trail ablaze.Rep Ryan Zinke (R-MT) looks on as US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Majestic Valley Arena in Kalispell, Montana on October 14, 2026 (AFP/Getty)Sensing an upset in the making, the White House rolled out the heavy artillery. Vice President JD Vance barnstormed the state last week alongside Flint and Senate hopeful Kurt Alme, while Trump flooded social feeds with an emphatic two-minute video endorsement.Forstag countered by going right after the tech industry, branding his opponent "AI Aaron" in biting spots that claim Flint is in the pocket of Silicon Valley data centers.The strategy—and the candidate's action-hero resume—is moving the needle. Forstag has built a commanding $1.5 million campaign cash edge, forcing GOP operatives to scramble $11 million into local airtime to head off $7 million from Democratic groups.With two late-October surveys showing the airborne firefighter holding a razor-thin advantage, Big Sky country is suddenly bracing for a shocker.Betting platform scandal and hospital closures take center stage in North Carolina rematchRepublican mapmakers drew the lines to kill off Rep. Don Davis’ political career, but an unforced betting blunder and an eye-popping $39 million campaign blitz have turned eastern North Carolina into an uphill defensive trench.GOP state legislators redrew Davis’ 1st Congressional District from a territory Donald Trump edged by just 3 points into a double-digit Republican fortress. Rather than packing his bags, the freshman Democrat dug his heels in.North Carolina Republican Congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout (R) shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump (Getty)Enter retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, a former Trump administration Pentagon official who should have sailed through the newly crimson district. Instead, she handed Democrats free ammunition after getting suspended and slapped with a fine by prediction-market platform Kalshi for wagering about $1,000 on her own victory — an episode she publicly chalked up to "a dumb mistake".Buckhout has scrambled to shift the spotlight, sounding alarms that "radical leftists like Elizabeth Warren" are pulling strings to keep Davis in the Capitol.Davis, meanwhile, is avoiding the ideological mud entirely. Taking to social media after chatting up early voters, the incumbent focused squarely on kitchen-table pain points: soaring household bills and the quiet crisis of rural healthcare centers shuttering.National Democrats, refusing to surrender the seat without a vicious brawl, have poured in $22 million to fortify Davis against a $17 million Republican counter-offensive.Mike Johnson rallies for Mike Lawler as Democrats fight to flip Harris-won New York battlegroundGOP leaders are circling the wagons in suburban New York, desperate to protect Rep. Mike Lawler in the most perilous defensive assignment on the entire congressional map.Lawler sits in exceedingly hostile territory as one of only three House Republicans stranded in districts Kamala Harris carried two years ago. With Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick favored to survive in Pennsylvania and a similar Nebraska seat open, the Hudson Valley incumbent is widely tagged as the most vulnerable Republican on the ballot.House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks next to Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) during a press conference on October 27, 2026 in Orangeburg, New York (Getty)Democratic challenger Cait Conley, a former combat veteran and national security specialist, has gone straight for the jugular, framing Lawler as a lockstep foot soldier for Donald Trump, tech titan Elon Musk, and controversial corporate data centers.GOP brass isn't taking any chances. House Speaker Mike Johnson jetted in to flank Lawler at a fiery press event, turning the spotlight onto Conley’s Virginia property records and accusing her of carpetbagging in a district where she pays no local real estate taxes.The party establishment is putting massive financial muscle behind the rescue mission, unleashing $13 million in outside firepower to shield Lawler, while Democrats have funneled $7 million into flipping the prized suburban corridor.Family fallout and abuse claims turn Max Miller's once-safe Ohio seat into an unexpected toss-upA bitter family meltdown and explosive domestic abuse allegations have blown a deep-red Ohio congressional district wide open, dragging freshman Republican Rep. Max Miller into a brutal fight for his political life. Miller coasted to a 15-point victory two years ago in a sprawling district that outpaced Donald Trump’s own margin. But the incumbent’s reelection bid cratered into personal chaos after his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, and a former girlfriend went public with allegations of domestic violence and child abuse. Democratic U.S. Congressional candidate, former Brook Park municipal councilman Brian Poindexter meets with attendees at a campaign event focused on Social Security on October 19, 2026 in Parma, Ohio (Getty)The fallout triggered an astonishing intraparty revolt: Moreno’s father, Republican U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno, publicly denounced his former son-in-law, demanding Miller resign from office immediately and scrap his campaign.Miller has pushed back fiercely, insisting in an ad campaign that every claim levied against him has been completely debunked. Taking to social media to share the spot, Miller struck a defiant personal note, saying "father" is his favorite title and "congressman" is a distant second. That defense has drawn scathing pushback from his Democratic challenger, union ironworker and Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter. Brandishing Miller as fundamentally unfit to serve, Poindexter has framed the incumbent as an entitled heir surviving solely on deep pockets, quipping that Miller has blown through more campaign cash than a tradesman could earn in a lifetime. Poindexter’s blue-collar pitch is packing an unexpected financial wallop. The challenger has amassed a roughly $400,000 direct fundraising lead over Miller, while national Democratic outfits have overwhelmed the local airwaves, unloading $12 million against $6 million in GOP defense cash to push an erstwhile lock firmly into toss-up territory.Tejano star Bobby Pulido threatens Monica De La Cruz's seat as GOP gerrymander falters in South TexasA high-risk Republican redistricting blitz designed to carve out five new congressional seats in Texas is unraveling along the southern border, where an audacious play to wipe out Democrats has detonated into an expensive multiseat headache.Rather than coasting to easy pickups, the GOP is suddenly scrambling to defend three separate battlegrounds across South Texas. Longtime Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar have stubbornly held their ground in seats Donald Trump carried by double digits, while an open clash between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia in the redrawn 35th District has unexpectedly tightened.Texas Democratic Congressional candidate Bobby Pulido speaks to Noel Candelaria (R), Vice President of the National Education Association, at a canvas launch on October 31, 2026 in Edinburg, Texas (Getty)The fiercest drama, however, centers on Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who faces genuine jeopardy against Tejano music icon Bobby Pulido in a Rio Grande Valley territory Trump dominated by 18 points. Despite holding the incumbency, De La Cruz has leaned into an underdog posture, blasting Pulido as "a rich celebrity from a corrupt political dynasty" and attempting to tar him over past ties to a former bandmate who was later convicted of a sex offense. Pulido immediately separated himself from the ex-accordionist, stating he was unaware of the man's criminal history.The contest took an unusual cultural twist after De La Cruz sneered that voters were picking a lawmaker, not someone to "perform at your niece's quinceañera". Pulido pounced on the snub, turning it into a cornerstone of his retail strategy by regularly serenading families at birthday celebrations along the trail. He followed up with an endorsement blitz highlighted by former President Bill Clinton. The numbers reflect a full-blown crisis for House Republicans: Democratic groups have poured $12 million into knocking off the incumbent, narrowly eclipsing $11 million in GOP defense cash, as late polling shows the Latin Grammy winner sitting on an improbable 7-point lead.GOP outspends Democrats in southwest Washington as Marie Gluesenkamp Perez touts centrist independenceRep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez made a name for herself in Washington by infuriating leaders of her own party, and now that renegade streak faces its ultimate endurance test in a $22 million Pacific Northwest collision.The blue-collar auto repair shop owner has spent her tenure systematically bucking Democratic orthodoxy: authoring a resolution reprimanding one of her own colleagues and frequently crossing the aisle on signature procedural roll calls to push conservative measures forward.Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., speaks to supporters during a canvass launch event at Kiwanis Park, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, in Battle Ground, Washington (AP)That hard-nosed, independent posture was carefully calculated to appeal to southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, a timber-rich, working-class landscape Donald Trump carried by a slim margin two years ago.The strategy hit a turbulent patch during the state's open August primary, where Gluesenkamp Perez placed second behind state Senate Republican Leader John Braun.Braun, a wealthy manufacturing executive, has gone on the offensive, ridiculing the incumbent as an ineffective showboat who talks tough on cable news but has failed to deliver tangible wins for local timber and maritime communities.Gluesenkamp Perez has struck back by attacking Braun’s fortune, casting the challenger as an out-of-touch multimillionaire bankrolled by special-interest super PACs trying to purchase a congressional seat.National Republicans are treating the seat as a prime flip prize, pouring $14 million into outside airtime to overpower the $8 million Democratic groups have marshaled.