Midterm takeaways: Trump told voters to pretend he was on the ballot and they gave the Senate to Democrats

Democrats have taken control of the Senate after a string of Republican-held seats fell in Tuesday's election.The party flipped seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. In each of those states, Trump had either personally chosen the GOP nominee or tried to rally voters behind the candidate with campaign stops.The outcome amounted to a rebuke of the president, coming as voters aired widespread concerns about high costs. Those concerns followed his war against Iran and his punishing tariff policy. Trump entered the midterms with dire polling numbers, and his plea to his own party appears to have undone him.The results were also a major reprimand from voters of Trump, who repeatedly urged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” as he went into primarily conservative states to shore up Republican candidates and warned of a Washington where Democrats were in power. As he tried to personalize the midterm campaign, Trump also defended his policies on tariffs and the war with Iran that drove up prices.Supporters celebrate after media outlets projected Democratic U.S. Senate candidate and Texas State Representative James Talarico's victory in the US midterm elections in Austin (Reuters)Here are the immediate takeaways from Tuesday’s blue wave:Trump said: ‘Pretend I'm on the ballot.' What do voters say?Voters who went to the polls on Tuesday rebuked Donald Trump and the Republican Party, even though the president himself was not on the ballot.He asked Americans to vote as if he were, and exit polls suggest they took him at his word.Exit polling conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of US media outlets, which included major television networks and the Associated Press, found that nearly 9 in 10 voters saw the cost of living as a crucial or major factor in their choice.Many of those surveyed also said they feel worse off than they did two years ago. Roughly two-thirds of voters in the exit polls blamed Trump for high prices. Three-quarters described themselves as either angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country.Trump pictured with Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina, the sister of Lindsey Graham, Darline (Getty)Concern about government corruption was also widespread among those surveyed. The Democratic victories on Tuesday suggested that Trump's 19-state campaign blitz for Republican candidates in recent weeks had done little to improve his standing with voters.Trump won the 2024 election on a promise to arrest high inflation. Since then, his tariffs on foreign goods and his war against Iran have only worsened the economic situation for many Americans, and his popularity has sunk to record lows.On the campaign trail, he told Americans to absorb the higher costs. The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of the electorate, suggests most voters are deeply unhappy with Trump. Roughly 6 in 10 said they disapprove of how he's handling the presidency.About 4 in 10 told the poll that the economy is the most important issue facing the country. A further 3 in 10 named democracy as the most important issue, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.The Republican president is trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress – sometimes many of them. Democrats certainly hope that's the case this year.The party is optimistic, given Trump's dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities. Trump is betting that his base of white working-class voters, which fueled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, can save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.Heading into Election Day, however, signs suggested Democrats were more fired up to vote against him and his party.Americans rejected Trump’s personal picks The candidates Donald Trump elevated, despite objections from local Republicans, struggled in races the party expected to win, and several fell.It was not only a bad night for Republicans; it was a bad night for Trump's judgment. His handpicked Senate candidates in South Carolina and North Carolina, Graham and Michael Whatley, lost. In Texas, Paxton was soundly beaten.Trump's personal pick for Senate in Texas was easily defeated by Democrat James Talarico (Reuters)Trump's choices left Republicans fighting on the defensive in states where they had been favored to win. The losses are likely to revive questions about Trump's political instincts. In particular, they are likely to revive questions about his tendency to prioritize personal loyalty over candidates with broader electoral appeal.The exit polls showed that the coalition of voters that powered his 2024 victory is badly fractured.Will Trump interfere?As news of the blue wave filtered through, Trump tweeted a photo of a version of one of his red baseball caps with the word “Veto” written across it. The president made threats about becoming “President Veto” in order to stop the Democratic agenda.The world is also watching to see whether the president leverages the federal government's vast resources to interfere with the election. Based on recent rhetoric, legal action, and his years-long record of promoting baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses, there is reason to take the threat seriously.In recent days, the Trump administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected his Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. Trump called the situation "voter fraud at the highest level.” The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government has identified as “likely” noncitizens.Trump’s Department of Justice is sending about 1,000 department staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are being followed. Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts.The Trump administration says it has no current plans to do so.Still, a vast election-protection effort will be on display this week, featuring hundreds of Democratic groups and government watchdogs.What version of the Democratic Party will emerge?While Trump's standing has cratered in 2026, Democrats' brand as a whole isn't much to brag about. That will leave the party's major factions — the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment — parsing the outcomes to claim any advantage in the party's tug-of-war over identity.Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is progressives' highest-profile candidate, and the movement would have a feather in its cap should he defeat Republican Mike Rogers to keep the seat in Democrats' hands. It's one thing for New Yorkers to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor. It's quite another for an unabashed progressive like El-Sayed to carry a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump twice.On the other hand, progressives could lose leverage if their candidates are unsuccessful. Senate losses in Michigan and Minnesota — where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending a Democratic-held open seat against Republican Michele Tafoya — could cost Democrats control of the Senate and lead to serious finger-pointing.Another possibility is that Democrats of all ideological stripes win, piling up Senate, House, and gubernatorial victories that depend on urban, suburban, and rural voters. That scenario would do little to resolve the discussion over party identity and would all but guarantee a wide-open, rollicking presidential nominating fight.What effect will Trump's gerrymandering push have?Trump set off a tempest in Texas last year when he pushed the most populous Republican-run state to redraw congressional boundaries. California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded by persuading his state's voters to do the same. Democratic and Republican states followed. Along the way, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, thus allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority or near-majority Black.On paper, the results suggest a net shift of nine seats to Republicans. But the gerrymandering meant spreading conservative supporters across more districts. In Florida and Texas, especially, the Republican plan counted on getting help from Latinos and other nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024 — and that may not happen.Tuesday's results will settle whether redistricting ends up being a clear Republican benefit or a reminder that the law of unintended consequences can apply in politics, too.