Merz is on the ropes. Could Sunday’s regional elections deliver a knock-out blow?

The name Friedrich Merz is on none of the 5.2 million ballot papers in circulation on Sunday, when voters choose two new German state governments, yet the deeply unpopular 70-year-old federal leader will be a crucial factor in both polls.Very different parliaments are likely to emerge for the city-state of Berlin and the northeastern Baltic state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommen. Yet either – or both – could deliver credibility blows to Merz and his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).In the Baltic Sea state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the local CDU has struggled for years, Merz’s party will be lucky to clear the five per cent hurdle on Sunday and return to the state parliament in Schwerin.Instead the coastal state election is a two-horse race between the AfD, on 37 per cent in polls, and the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), two points behind and closing.READ MORETwo hours south in Berlin, meanwhile, the ruling CDU could lose power in the capital’s city-state parliament, as polls show the party neck-and-neck with an increasingly popular hard Left Party (Linke).New national polls this week added to the Merz misery: just 18 per cent support for the CDU, leaving it 10 points behind the AfD, and the personal approval rating for Merz is now down to just 14 per cent.Fearing the worst, a fortnight after a dramatic AfD win in another regional poll, the chancellor and CDU chairman will stay in Berlin early next week rather than address the UN general assembly as planned.While Merz struggles and his CDU squabbles, its SPD rival has come out in attack mode.“The chancellor doesn’t really give people the impression that he sees and understands their problems, he simply ignores them,” said Manuela Schwesig, outgoing SPD prime minister of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.An election campaign billboard for the SPD's Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Even after nine years in office, Schwesig enjoys 60 per cent popularity ratings while her state SPD is more than twice as popular than the national SPD, currently struggling on 12 per cent.Ask the 52-year-old about her enduring popularity and she says voters are happy to reward a pragmatic, centre-left party that works for them rather than preoccupies itself with internal squabbles.“The SPD here follow a clear path: support business, securing jobs and combine that with social justice,” she said. “We focus our politics on those who work, or who have done so, to keep the country going.”Down in Berlin, the local SPD – squeezed between its CDU coalition partner and a rising Left party – is struggling on 11 per cent, with a mayoral candidate hit with a graft scandal in the final days of campaigning.All eyes in the capital are on Elif Eralp, Left Party lead candidate, as a potential new governing mayor – a first for the party.She was born in Munich in 1980 to Turkish parents, weeks after they fled a putsch in their homeland, and is Berlin’s most vocal opponent of the far-right AfD, on 18 per cent in the capital.Why did Germans vote for the far-right AfD party?“I think it would be a strong signal if, in Berlin, someone with a migrant story became mayor,” said Eralp, “because the AfD does politics against people with migration roots.”Key to her party’s popularity are promises of robust rent controls and implementation of a forced buy-back of corporate apartment holdings. In an echo of Schwesig, Eralp says they are reaping the rewards of back-to-the-roots politics: knocking on doors and listening to people.“Many people feel politics is people up there doing what they want with no interest in them and their concerns,” said Eralp, convinced that “getting out there pulls the rug out from under the AfD”.But her party’s early poll lead has melted away in recent weeks after a party event where a popular Berlin rapper sang a song including the lyrics “death to the IDF [Israel Defense Forces)”.That revived a long-running debate over whether the Left Party’s criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza tips into anti-Semitism. Sensing danger, Eralp said she was “outraged” by the remarks and that “the organisers should have intervened”.While Berlin’s local CDU battles to retain power in the capital, eight CDU prime ministers came out on Wednesday to back Merz as the right man in the chancellery.[ Inside the Brussels struggle over who speaks for EuropeOpens in new window ]The eight state leaders promised to work with him to rebuild trust and support by “listening and acting, rather than engaging in personal debates”.“Trust will return once more when politics solves the problems and questions that preoccupy people in their everyday lives,” the statement added.Through a spokesman, Merz, in power since May 2025, welcomed the remarks as proof his CDU colleagues were ready to work with him and take “responsibility for Germany”. Others were less optimistic the move would have any noticeable effect.Prof Klaus Schubert, political scientist at the University of Munster, suggested Merz has become a lightning rod for diverse pent-up voter frustrations: his political content and style but also many issues beyond his control and not his fault.“Merz is not a great politician, he struggles to communicate constructively,” he said. “But the real reason they’re all lining up behind him is because nobody wants his job.”Others were less optimistic.Prof Klaus Schubert, political scientist at the University of Munster, suggests Merz has become a lightning rod for diverse pent-up voter frustrations: a seven-year economic slump combined with a spike in living costs - particularly petrol - amid growing cracks in Germany’s industrial base.Efforts to reverse years of underinvestment in infrastructure and defence, and that amid growing fears of a war with Russia, are great challenges for any politician.“But Merz is not a great politician,” said Schuber, noting a long series of gaffes and miscommunication after just a year in office. “The real reason all the state leaders are lining up behind him is because nobody wants his job.”