Massachusetts primary offers late-game litmus test for Democrats

(CN) — As left-wing newcomers are breaking ground in Democratic primaries around the country, a trio of competitive congressional races in Massachusetts on Sept. 1 come at a pivotal time for a party searching for its post-Trump identity.At the top of the ticket, aging progressive Ed Markey is looking to hold onto his Senate seat by warding off moderate challenger Seth Moulton, who represents Massachusetts’ 6th District in the House of Representatives.That means Moulton’s seat is up for the taking, and a crowded field of six challengers are fighting to distance themselves from the pack in one of the wealthiest and most educated districts in the country.In the 8th District, progressive attorney Patrick Roath hopes to unseat Stephen Lynch, who has held his seat for more than two decades as perhaps the most conservative member of the state’s delegation.Nationally, Massachusetts’ September primary date is on the later side, leaving roughly two months between the primary and the general. In the longtime blue stronghold, however, Republican challengers in the November general are expected to be a nonissue.But despite the state’s general liberal dominance, it’s not necessarily a breeding ground for the kind of left-wing insurgency that has made headlines in other Democratic primaries.John Cluverius, political science professor and pollster at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, told Courthouse News it’s a state that values name recognition and respects incumbents. Its unique semi-closed primary system also allows independents — who skew centrist — to cast ballots for Democratic nominees.And this year, the primary takes place on a prime moving day, meaning young, often progressive Bostonians could be too busy driving U-Haul trucks to wait in line at their polling sites.“That could make it harder to mobilize young people this year,” Cluverius acknowledged.Familiar challenge for MarkeyIn many ways, Markey’s reelection campaign is an inverse of the broader national trend of young, left-wing challengers to longtime incumbents.Markey is 80 years old. He’s held his Senate seat since 2013, and before that was a U.S. representative for Massachusetts for more than three decades. But he’s also a longtime progressive, the Senate author of the Green New Deal and one of the 16 senators to co-sponsor Bernie Sanders’ 2017 Medicare for All Act. Markey’s challenger may be 33 years his junior, but Moulton is flanking the veteran from the ideological center, not the left.File - U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) speaks alongside other members of the House Democratic Veterans Caucus during a news conference in opposition to the war in Iran outside of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 4, 2026. (Bryan Dozier / NurPhoto via AFP)Still, Moulton is approaching the race as an outsider fighting against the machine. He’s repeatedly attacked Markey’s age, a sensitive topic for Democrats after Joe Biden’s abrupt exit from the 2024 presidential race, and made a largely unsuccessful effort to tie Markey to disgraced pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.According to Raymond La Raja, political science professor and pollster at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Moulton is looking to tap into optics, not necessarily policy.“He’s making himself to be a fighter against the Trump administration, against a stalled Washington,” La Raja told Courthouse News. “He’s counting on the fact that a lot of people want a fighter, regardless of their ideology.”Markey has been here before. Six years ago, he faced another younger centrist opponent: Joe Kennedy III. Despite the massive age gap — and Kennedy’s membership in the iconic U.S. political dynasty — Markey won by 10 points.Cluverius said in many ways, Moulton faces a more difficult task than Kennedy did.“Moulton does not have the same statewide goodwill constituency,” he said. “Knocking off an incumbent, especially in a state that is very protective of its incumbents, requires a very dynamic candidate and a very dynamic message.”Markey’s age appears to be that key message for Moulton — a potentially impactful one for a base still reeling from the Biden incident. But Cluverius said Markey seems to wear his age better than the former president did.“He doesn’t appear to be aging in an incapacitating way,” he said.Cluverius called Moulton’s entrance in the race a “moment in time” following Biden’s political collapse — a bet that voters would see Markey as too old to lead by the time the primary came around.“If your message is that Ed Markey is too old, you’ve got to show people that,” he said.Markey has dismissed concerns over his age. At a debate last month, he assured voters “this is the most energized I’ve ever been.” In a snappy campaign ad, he flexed progressive endorsements from Sanders, fellow U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Representative Ayanna Pressley. And he’s still showing off his extensive sneaker collection both on and off the Senate floor.According to a new poll from La Raja’s team at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Markey has a commanding 28-point lead over Moulton, 60% to 32%.MA-06: Ripe for a breakthroughSix candidates are vying for Moulton’s soon-to-be-vacant seat in the 6th District, all clawing for name recognition and momentum. The district, which encompasses the northeast tip of the state, skews progressive but not anti-establishment. Political experience is encouraged, not shunned.The race’s apparent frontrunner, Dan Koh, embodies that. The 41-year-old Harvard graduate served as deputy assistant to Biden. His father, a physician, was a high-ranking official in President Barack Obama’s Department of Health and Human Services.Koh’s endorsements — Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg — reflect his vast connections. He’s also dominated when it comes to fundraising in his second foray into congressional politics. He lost the 2018 primary in the 3rd District by a mere 122 votes to eventual general winner Lori Trahan.“Both of his parents are affluent and well connected,” said Jonathan Cohn, policy director at advocacy group Progressive Massachusetts. “And he used to be the chief of staff for former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, so he has all of Marty’s connections as well.”Progressive Massachusetts backed one of Koh’s opponents for the 6th District: Tram Nguyen, a state representative who has worked as a lawyer representing immigrants and domestic violence victims.Rounding out the race are John Beccia, who co-founded a financial consulting firm; Mariah Lancaster, a veterinarian and former State Department officer; Beth Andres-Beck, a software engineer; and former state Representative Jamie Zahlaway Belsito.At a debate earlier this month, the six candidates largely agreed on areas of focus, acknowledging housing, healthcare and general affordability as top-of-mind issues.“In a lot of these five plus-candidate races, there isn’t a lot for individual voters to distinguish among themselves,” Cluverius said of the race. “What I’m looking for is who is talking to voters in a way that they can remember in the final weeks of the campaign.”MA-08: Generational divide Downstate, the race for the 8th District mirrors Democrats’ broader struggle between aging moderates and their progressive challengers.Lynch, the incumbent, has been in Congress since 2001, and is no stranger to ruffling feathers on the left. He infamously broke with Democrats to vote against Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Last year, he was the state’s only congressional member to vote for Donald Trump’s Laken Riley Act, which gives federal immigration authorities more latitude to detain immigrants.Roath has been highly critical of the congressman, writing in a Substack post that Lynch’s “voting record speaks for itself” and accusing him of being “not seriously and meaningfully committed to reversing the damage wrought by Trump.” He’s firmly to Lynch’s left on issues like immigration and has advocated for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.He’s no card-carrying Democratic Socialists of America member, but La Raja said such a candidate probably wouldn’t get very far in the 8th District, home to many working-class and old-school Democratic establishment Boston suburbs.It’s precisely the kind of race where the state’s semi-closed primary could come into play, he said, as unaffiliated center-leaning voters could find solace in Lynch’s moderation.“He was an iron worker, he’s conservative,” La Raja said. “He’s going to get the independent votes, and he’s going to get the old school union guys.”But Cohn, whose Progressive Massachusetts endorsed Roath, is hopeful that momentum from other recent elections — and connections Roath built while as an aide to former Governor Deval Patrick — could propel him to victory. He’s particularly optimistic after races in cities like Quincy, not particularly known to be a progressive haven, yielded positive results for his allies.“Quincy had a big upset year in local elections last year, where a number of progressive challengers won,” Cohn said. “With that level of local dissatisfaction with a conservative status quo, it’ll be interesting to see if that carries over to the congressional.”Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads