Majority of voters see immigration as a positive thing, but it’s a tighter call than before

Immigration has, for the first time, become an issue in Irish politics in recent years. As the number of asylum seekers increased sharply following the Covid-19 pandemic, the State’s capacity to manage and accommodate the numbers was stretched to breaking point.As tents started appearing on streets, and hotels at the centre of some communities became asylum centres, immigration surged up the list of political issues the public cared about.The number of asylum seekers coming to Ireland has since dropped off dramatically and accounts for only a small part of overall inward migration. The majority is made up of those arriving with work permits and student visas, or from the European Union or the UK who arrive with the legal right to reside and work in the State.With population growth being driven by inward migration, immigration has remained a salient political issue. It is clearly a motivating issue for those on the far right and is especially visible as such online. However, it is also of much broader political concern. READ MOREFigures published this week by the Central Statistics Office – not known as a hotbed of far-right politics – show that nearly a quarter (24 per cent) of respondents to a major national survey reported immigration as a “top three issue facing the country” last year, up from 16 per cent in 2023. This mirrors the findings of polling done by media outlets, including The Irish Times. [ Immigration and climate of lesser concern than housing or living costs, survey findsOpens in new window ]In Friday’s survey, voters were asked whether “in general” immigration has been a positive or a negative for Ireland. On balance, more think it’s a positive – but it’s a tighter call than before.When this question was asked in 2024, the split was 46 per cent positive, 38 per cent negative, a gap of eight points. Today, that’s down to four points, with 43 per cent saying it’s a positive and 39 per cent negative.Sinn Féin – which has found the issue the most difficult among all the parties, as it pitted its traditional nationalist base against newer progressive supporters – is the only party whose voters show a net negative view of immigration.There is overwhelming support for “tougher enforcement of existing regulations, including deportations of people who do not have permission to stay in Ireland” – which 81 per cent are in favour of, against just 13 per cent who disagree. This is also the direction of Government policy – which is not a coincidence.The other question in Friday’s poll concerns attitudes to a united Ireland, increasingly a subject of political discourse here, though considered a priority only by a small minority, repeated surveys suggest.The picture in Friday’s findings is a clear one: voters overwhelmingly believe the Government should “begin preparations for possible Irish unity”, with 68 per cent in favour, 19 per cent against and the remainder expressing no opinion. Furthermore, by a ratio of more than two to one (57 per cent to 25 per cent) they want to see referendums on unity by the end of the decade, which is a little more than three years away. It’s hard to see how this is a realistic prospect, with the Government’s current position being that there is no timetable for Irish unity.There is, however, substantial concern about the potential costs of unity, cited by 64 per cent. A key question in any future referendum campaign will be whether those concerns about costs among southern taxpayers can be assuaged, and how they impact on their ultimate voting intention.Despite the impatience for the idea of unity, Friday’s poll suggests that southern voters may not be willing to change aspects of the existing State’s identity to accommodate any new members. The poll showed 70 per cent said they would not be willing to consider changes – such as a new national anthem or flag or joining the Commonwealth – to make unity more acceptable to northern unionists. In recent years, The Irish Times’ North and South polling project, carried out in conjunction with Arins, itself an academic collaboration between the University of Notre Dame and the Royal Irish Academy, has considered some of these questions in detail, and with some of the nuance impossible in a short survey such as this. The results, as well as analysis and discussion of them, can be found at irishtimes.com