Major losses could spur Trump to escalate war before year's end

As much as the Iran war is the key reason Trump and the GOP were crushed tonight, it is important to recognize that the pressure for war is now likely to increase.This does not mean that Trump will restart the war. But the balance of pressure for and against war will likely favor escalation.Trump was under a degree of pressure to strike a deal before the midterms, hoping to soften the blow in the polls. But now that the midterms are over, that pressure will dissipate somewhat. Gas prices are still high, but the political cost has already been paid. There won’t be another point on the political calendar for some time when that cost can be exacted again.But two other factors will intensify.First, pro-war elements in Israel and in Washington will see the next two months as the last period in which Trump has wide maneuverability to restart the war. By January, the Democrats will control both chambers, will control the purse, and can begin impeaching Trump’s secretaries, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. While Trump’s freedom of maneuver will not be completely constrained, it will be significantly reduced.In fact, it could happen sooner, given that current government funding expires on December 11. Democrats can push to ensure that any subsequent funding or authorization legislation prohibits war funding. As Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has pointed out, the Vietnam War only ended after Congress refused to continue funding it.This will compel war supporters to dramatically increase their pressure on Trump to restart the war in the coming weeks, before Congress imposes itself on Trump.Secondly, while Trump’s decision to start the war in February was driven by hubris and criminally erroneous Israeli advice, another emotion may dominate his thinking going forward: vengeance.There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran — in Trump’s mind — has ruined his presidency. That anger must be going through the roof tonight.If talks in Doha do not produce a breakthrough in the next few days, then the risk of escalation in the coming weeks will increase due to the urgency borne out of a closing window for escalation, Trump’s own desire for vengeance, and reduced political pressure to push down gas prices by securing a deal.