Lutnick emerges as favored next-to-go in Trump’s post-midterm personnel shuffle

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is in the hot seat following reports about his actions involving the American chip giant Nvidia.Lutnick has surpassed both War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the prediction markets’ top pick for the next Cabinet Secretary to depart the Trump administration.On Kalshi Thursday, Lutnick’s chances of being the next Cabinet official to leave the administration peaked at 57%, a jump of more than 30 points from Wednesday. Meanwhile, Hegseth and Rubio sat at 15 and 9%, respectively. The splits on Polymarket were significantly tighter, though Lutnick still jumped more than 10 points from Wednesday.Why is Lutnick in trouble? The controversy surrounding Lutnick spiked after Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday morning after he was revealed to have had two separate affairs, one with an alleged Chinese spy.Axios published two reports on Wednesday suggesting that Lutnick’s actions and decisions regarding Nvidia specifically jeopardized national security.First, Lutnick reportedly received a classified memo detailing Huang’s affair with the alleged Chinese spy, but still approved the sale of Nvidia’s chips to Chinese buyers. Second, Lutnick reportedly had been the only Cabinet official to resist Trump’s attempts to crack down on the transshipment of even more advanced Nvidia chips that had not been approved for sale in China to Chinese AI companies.Nvidia has been a critical player in President Donald Trump‘s artificial intelligence platform and foreign policy. The company’s chips have been instrumental to the rapid American AI infrastructure buildout. The AI battle is also a simmering point of tension between Washington, D.C., and Beijing, following Trump’s renewed trade war with China last year. After several rounds of reciprocal tariff actions, the Trump administration eventually approved the sale of certain previously blocked chips to China, despite warnings that the move could accelerate Beijing’s AI buildout.A White House official told the Washington Examiner Thursday that Trump “maintains complete confidence in the secretary and his ability to carry out the position as the most transformative Commerce Secretary in modern history.”“Secretary Lutnick is a champion of President Trump’s America First trade and tariff policies, which have secured almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments,” the official added.The president himself has sent somewhat mixed messages surrounding his Cabinet after the 2026 midterm elections. Trump told reporters last week that he doesn’t plan to make any changes, but suggested in an interview with 60 Minutes that he was considering “maybe, a few changes.”The interview was taped on Friday but did not air until Sunday. Hours after the president spoke to CBS, he replaced former White House chief of staff Susie Wiles with his longtime deputy Stephen Miller.Still, senior Trump administration officials and outside advisors to the president have told the Washington Examiner that Lutnick had been causing problems dating back to last year.Those sources specifically faulted Lutnick for failing to secure enough bilateral trade deals after the implementation of Trump’s enhanced tariff schedule, and for clashing with other members of the administration.MEET THE TOP TRUMP AIDE ‘BUILT FOR’ BESTING THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITIESOne former senior White House official who works closely with the president’s outside political team suggested that Lutnick “would just promise stupid shit and then make us clean up the f***ing mess.” That person specifically pointed to the Trump Gold Card, an immigration program granting expedited residency to individuals willing to donate $1 million to the U.S. Treasury, in addition to the idea that an “External Revenue Service” could supplant the Internal Revenue Service and eliminate the need for collecting income tax from Americans and legal immigrants.“At the end of the day, the guy is just a buffoon,” the source assessed. “He’s friends with the president. That’s why he got the job, and he’s outstayed his welcome.”